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This briefing by Ember compares three expert modeling scenarios—from the Climate Change Committee (CCC), National Grid, and Energy Systems Catapult (ESC)—to demonstrate that the UK can phase out unabated gas-fired electricity generation by 2035 or sooner. The report argues that such a transition is essential for meeting the UK's legislated carbon targets, would reduce dependence on expensive imported gas, and would support a green industrial revolution through the expansion of renewables and energy storage.

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  • There is a broad consensus among the Climate Change Committee (CCC), National Grid, and the Energy Systems Catapult (ESC) that the UK power sector can be more than 99% fossil free by 2035 or before, without risking security of supply.
  • The Climate Change Committee's 'Balanced Net Zero Pathway' recommends that the burning of unabated natural gas for electricity generation be completely phased out by 2035, with the low-carbon share of generation increasing from 50% to 100% by that date.
  • National Grid's 2021 Future Energy Scenarios indicate that all pathways meeting UK climate targets require less than 1% unabated fossil fuels by 2035, with wind and solar providing at least 80% of power generation.
  • Modeling by the Energy Systems Catapult for Good Energy suggests a more accelerated timeline, proposing that a fully decarbonised electricity grid could be achieved by 2030 through rapid renewable expansion, with renewables accounting for 84% of generation by that year.
  • A phase-out of unabated gas is presented as a means to lower electricity bills by reducing reliance on expensive imported fossil gas and replacing it with cheaper domestic wind and solar power.
  • The transition to a clean power sector is expected to support a green industrial revolution, particularly in areas bordering the North Sea, by creating skilled jobs and utilizing the potential of offshore wind to potentially drive a boom in green hydrogen.
  • While models agree on the primacy of renewables, they differ on the roles of nuclear and Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS). The CCC views dispatchable gas power with CCS as an important counterbalance to variable renewables, whereas National Grid places less emphasis on gas CCS and ESC's Zero Carbon Britain scenario imagines a system without nuclear or CCS.

Cite the original document

APA
MacDonald, P., & Lytton, W. (2021). The uk clean power plan. Ember. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2021/09/Ember-Report-The-UK-Clean-Power-Plan.pdf
Chicago
MacDonald, Phil, and Wilf Lytton. The uk clean power plan. Ember, 2021. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2021/09/Ember-Report-The-UK-Clean-Power-Plan.pdf.
Wikipedia
{{cite report |last1=MacDonald |first1=Phil |last2=Lytton |first2=Wilf |title=The uk clean power plan |publisher=Ember |date=September 2021 |url=https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2021/09/Ember-Report-The-UK-Clean-Power-Plan.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}
BibTeX
@techreport{macdonald2021clean, author = {MacDonald, Phil and Lytton, Wilf}, title = {{The uk clean power plan}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2021}, month = sep, url = {https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2021/09/Ember-Report-The-UK-Clean-Power-Plan.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }

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