Phasing down or phasing up? Top fossil fuel producers plan even more extraction despite climate promises

The 2023 Production Gap Report finds that global governments plan to produce significantly more fossil fuels by 2030 and 2050 than is consistent with the 1.5°C warming limit. Despite net-zero pledges, many major producers continue to plan increases in coal, oil, and gas extraction. The report argues for a rapid phase-out of fossil fuels, noting that reliance on carbon capture and storage (CCS) and carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is risky due to technical and economic uncertainties.

• Governments are planning to produce fossil fuels in 2030 at levels approximately 110% above what is consistent with a 1.5°C warming limit and 69% above levels consistent with a 2°C limit. This gap is projected to widen by 2050, with planned production reaching 350% and 150% above the 1.5°C and 2°C pathways, respectively.
• Current government projections indicate that global coal production will increase until 2030, while oil and gas production will increase until at least 2050. This contradicts the need for rapid declines to meet Paris Agreement goals.
• Among 20 major producer countries analyzed, 17 have pledged net-zero emissions, yet none have committed to reducing the production of coal, oil, and gas in alignment with the 1.5°C warming limit.
• The report highlights a lack of equity in the transition, noting that 10 high-income countries alone plan fossil fuel production levels that would exceed 1.5°C-consistent pathways for every fuel by 2040.
• Reliance on carbon capture and storage (CCS) and carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is deemed uncertain; approximately 80% of pilot CCS projects from the last 30 years have failed, and current operational capacity for dedicated CO2 storage is less than 0.01 GtCO2/yr.
• To mitigate risks associated with CCS and CDR, the report recommends a near total phase-out of coal production and use by 2040, and a minimum three-quarters reduction in combined oil and gas production and use by 2050 relative to 2020 levels.

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (2023). Phasing down or phasing up? Top fossil fuel producers plan even more extraction despite climate promises. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/pgr2023-execsum-web.pdf

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. Phasing down or phasing up? Top fossil fuel producers plan even more extraction despite climate promises. 2023. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/pgr2023-execsum-web.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=Phasing down or phasing up? Top fossil fuel producers plan even more extraction despite climate promises |date=2023 |url=https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/pgr2023-execsum-web.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stockholmenvironmentinstitute2023phasing, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{Phasing down or phasing up? Top fossil fuel producers plan even more extraction despite climate promises}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2023}, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/pgr2023-execsum-web.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }