pgr2023-execsum-web-b97dd227a1fdefdf.pdf

The Production Gap Report 2023 finds that global governments plan to produce significantly more fossil fuels by 2030 and 2050 than is consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5°C or 2°C. Despite net-zero pledges, many major producers continue to plan for increases in coal, oil, and gas production, creating a misalignment between production plans and climate goals.

• Governments are planning to produce fossil fuels at levels far exceeding those consistent with the Paris Agreement's temperature goals. By 2030, planned production is approximately 110% higher than levels consistent with a 1.5°C limit and 69% higher than those consistent with a 2°C limit. This gap is projected to widen by 2050, with planned production reaching 350% and 150% above 1.5°C and 2°C consistent levels, respectively.
• Current government plans and projections indicate that global coal production will increase until 2030, while oil and gas production will increase until at least 2050. These projections contrast with expectations that demand for these fuels will peak within the current decade.
• There is a significant disconnect between the climate pledges of major producer countries and their actual production plans. While 17 of the 20 profiled major producer countries have pledged net-zero emissions, none have committed to reducing coal, oil, and gas production in alignment with a 1.5°C warming limit.
• The transition away from fossil fuels is currently inequitable, as high-income and low-dependence countries continue to plan production levels that exceed 1.5°C-consistent pathways. Specifically, the combined planned production of 10 high-income countries and the trajectories of 12 countries with lower economic dependence on production would both exceed 1.5°C-consistent pathways by 2040.
• Many countries are promoting natural gas as a "bridge" or "transition" fuel, but this may lock in fossil-fuel-based systems and delay the shift to renewables. Furthermore, methane leakage along the gas supply chain has reduced the expected climate benefits of replacing coal with gas.
• Due to the high failure rate of carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects—approximately 80% of pilot projects over 30 years have failed—and uncertainties regarding carbon dioxide removal (CDR), the report suggests a precautionary approach. This includes a near total phase-out of coal production and use by 2040 and a minimum three-quarters reduction in oil and gas production and use by 2050 relative to 2020 levels.

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (n.d.). pgr2023-execsum-web-b97dd227a1fdefdf.pdf. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/pgr2023-execsum-web.pdf

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. pgr2023-execsum-web-b97dd227a1fdefdf.pdf. n.d. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/pgr2023-execsum-web.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=pgr2023-execsum-web-b97dd227a1fdefdf.pdf |url=https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/pgr2023-execsum-web.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stockholmenvironmentinstitutendpgr2023execsumwebb97dd227a1fdefdfpdf, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{pgr2023-execsum-web-b97dd227a1fdefdf.pdf}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/pgr2023-execsum-web.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }