Production Gap Report 2023

The 2023 Production Gap Report finds that governments plan to produce more than double the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 consistent with a 1.5°C warming limit. While many major producers have pledged net-zero emissions, most continue to expand production, with global coal production projected to increase until 2030 and oil and gas until at least 2050. The report argues for a managed, equitable phase-out of all fossil fuels, noting that reliance on carbon capture and storage (CCS) and carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is risky due to technical uncertainties and a poor track record of pilot project success.

• Governments collectively plan to produce approximately 110% more fossil fuels in 2030 than is consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C, and 69% more than is consistent with a 2°C limit.
• Current government plans and projections indicate that global coal production will increase until 2030, while oil and gas production will increase until at least 2050.
• Despite net-zero pledges from 17 of the 20 profiled major producer countries, none have committed to reducing production in line with the 1.5°C warming limit.
• The report recommends a near total phase-out of coal production and use by 2040, and a minimum three-quarters reduction in combined oil and gas production and use by 2050 relative to 2020 levels.
• Reliance on carbon capture and storage (CCS) is deemed risky, as approximately 80% of pilot CCS projects over the last 30 years have failed.
• The transition is at risk of being inequitable, as the planned production of just 10 high-income countries would exceed 1.5°C-consistent pathways for each fuel by 2040.
• Many governments promote natural gas as a 'bridge' or 'transition' fuel, but the report warns this may lock in fossil-fuel-based systems and delay the shift to renewables.
• Existing fossil fuel infrastructure already generates committed CO2 emissions that exceed the remaining carbon budget for a 50% chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C by 2100.
• State-owned enterprises maintain significant control over global supply, managing half of global oil and gas production and over half of coal production.

APA

Global Energy Monitor (2023). Production Gap Report 2023. https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/PGR2023_web_rev_3.pdf

Chicago

Global Energy Monitor. Production Gap Report 2023. 2023. https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/PGR2023_web_rev_3.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Global Energy Monitor |title=Production Gap Report 2023 |date=November 2023 |url=https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/PGR2023_web_rev_3.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{globalenergymonitor2023production, author = {{Global Energy Monitor}}, title = {{Production Gap Report 2023}}, institution = {Global Energy Monitor}, year = {2023}, month = nov, url = {https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/PGR2023_web_rev_3.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }