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Kidnapping for ransom (KFR) in Chad has evolved from sporadic rural banditry into a structured, transnational criminal economy, particularly concentrated in the 'Triangle of Death' border region between Chad, Cameroon, and the Central African Republic. The report identifies a professionalized hierarchy of actors, including 'godfathers', perpetrators, and community enablers, who exploit state fragility, porous borders, and economic marginalization. While the state relies on fragmented military responses, the report argues that KFR is sustained by a complex interplay of conflict economies, including artisanal gold mining and insurgent activities by groups like ISWAP and Boko Haram. The consequences include mass displacement, eroded trust in state institutions, and generational trauma, necessitating a multi-sectoral strategy that combines security reform with community engagement and legal updates.

The report examines the African Union's (AU) efforts to create a coherent foreign policy framework to navigate a fragmented international order, while highlighting the need for deeper economic integration similar to the EU. It details the evolving threat of Boko Haram and ISWAP in the Lake Chad Basin and the emerging extremist hub in the Borgu-Kainji axis. Additionally, it argues for a youth-focused approach to combat transnational organized crime, citing the rise of cybercrime and drug trafficking in West Africa. Finally, it outlines Burundi's priorities as AU chair, emphasizing water security, youth empowerment, and the urgent need for internal financial autonomy to ensure political sovereignty.

The report finds that TotalEnergies' investment strategy heavily favors fossil fuels, with 4.8 dollars invested in oil and gas for every dollar spent on integrated power in 2025. The company's 2030 production targets are projected to be at least 59% higher than levels required for NZE alignment. While diversifying into renewables, the report notes this is largely through acquisitions and remains marginal, with oil and gas expected to represent 83% of the energy mix by 2030. Additionally, the company is expanding its LNG capacity and gas power production, while relying on CCUS and offsets to meet emissions targets it has recently modified, including a statement in 2026 that it could no longer commit to a 'net zero' objective.

The document argues that major private credit rating agencies (CRAs) employ subjective, biased, and procyclical methodologies that unfairly inflate the risk premiums for African nations. This 'credit rating impasse' increases the cost of capital, hinders debt restructuring, and obstructs the deployment of climate finance. To counter this, the author supports the African Union's endorsement of the Africa Credit Rating Agency (AfCRA) to be based in Mauritius. The brief recommends that African nations improve data transparency, build debt management capacity through partnerships with the IMF and AfDB, and implement legislative oversight via debt sustainability laws to improve their macroeconomic fundamentals and challenge inaccurate ratings.

The briefing examines the strained bilateral relationship between Benin and Niger following Niger's 2023 coup and the subsequent withdrawal of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) from ECOWAS. It highlights how the election of Romuald Wadagni in Benin on 12 April 2026 offers a window for de-escalation, as both nations face economic losses and rising insecurity. The author suggests that the African Union, specifically through the AU Mission for Mali and the Sahel, is best positioned to facilitate a formal reset based on mutual territorial assurances to overcome mistrust and security gaps in the W-Arly-Pendjari Complex.

In 2025, clean power met all global electricity demand growth for the first time since the pandemic, as China's fossil generation plateaued. Solar power is the primary driver of this shift, and the deployment of battery storage is increasingly enabling solar to displace fossil fuels during non-daylight hours. India is expected to follow a less coal-reliant path than China due to lower energy intensity and the maturity of low-cost clean technologies.

The document analyzes the stagnation of African agricultural productivity, attributing it to historical factors like slavery, colonialism, and a lack of tenure reform. It contrasts a 'Current Path' forecast—characterized by increasing food import dependence and low yields—with an 'Agriculture scenario' where targeted interventions in AgTech, irrigation, and soil health lead to significant poverty reduction and GDP growth. The report emphasizes the need for food self-sufficiency and value addition within Africa over a reliance on raw commodity exports.

The report details systemic gender discrimination in African households, highlighting the prevalence of child marriage, the disproportionate burden of unpaid care work on women, and legal and cultural barriers to equal divorce and inheritance rights.

The Agriculture scenario projects a significant increase in Africa's agricultural production, reducing food import dependence and extreme poverty while boosting GDP. By 2043, production could reach 2,167 million metric tons, with Nigeria emerging as the most significant producer. The scenario is expected to reduce the number of extremely poor Africans to 339 million and increase the total economy by US$354 billion compared to the Current Path. However, these gains depend on water availability, climate-driven carbon fertilisation, and the adoption of temperature-tolerant cultivars.

The research finds that an aggressive reduction in gender inequality would significantly increase Africa's GDP, GDP per capita, and human development indices by 2043. The most substantial economic gains are projected in the service sector and in regions with currently high gender gaps, such as North and West Africa. Socially, the Gender scenario is forecast to lift millions out of extreme poverty and reduce the number of stunted children by 6 million compared to the Current Path.

The document forecasts that achieving full gender equality by 2043 would significantly boost Africa's economy, increasing GDP by US$1 trillion compared to the current path and lifting 80 million more people out of extreme poverty. The most substantial gains are projected for North Africa and specific countries like Egypt and Nigeria, though the extent of the benefit depends on a country's economic structure and population growth.

The document outlines a simulated agricultural revolution in Africa based on eight interventions: increasing crop yields, expanding irrigation, increasing water withdrawal, protecting forests, improving supply chains, enhancing rural road access, and increasing per capita calories. The scenario predicts that by 2043, average crop yields will reach 7 tons per hectare (a 37% increase over the 'Current Path') and irrigated land will grow to 17.4 million hectares. It emphasizes the role of these interventions in reducing food loss and waste—projected to drop to 19.4% by 2033—and improving rural accessibility to 69%. The model balances agricultural expansion with forest protection, aiming to save 30 million hectares of forest land by 2043 compared to the Current Path forecast.

The research paper analyzes historical agricultural transformations in China, Brazil, and Egypt, highlighting the roles of institutional incentives, genetic seed tailoring, and targeted infrastructure investments in increasing yields and food security.

The FSF ACCT is a blended finance programme targeting cocoa and coffee supply chains in 10 countries. It combines a USD 200 million investment facility for pre-harvest working capital loans with a USD 12 million Technical Assistance Facility (TAF). The programme aims to mitigate 8.47 million tCO2e and benefit over 8.7 million people over 15 years by promoting agroforestry and regenerative agriculture.

Ghana faces a critical juncture where economic recovery is threatened by a fragile, high-carbon energy sector and widespread illegal mining. The energy sector is characterized by high debt, a heavy reliance on thermal generation, and a lack of renewable energy investment. Simultaneously, illegal mining (galamsey) causes severe deforestation and water pollution, threatening food security and the viability of hydropower. The document proposes a transition toward sustainable growth through competitive solar auctions, the establishment of a green investment facility, the formalization of artisanal mining via the Ghana Gold Board, and large-scale ecosystem restoration.

The Climate Litigation Lab report summarizes discussions from a 2025 event in Magaliesburg, South Africa, focusing on Strategic Litigation Against Public Participation (SLAPPs) and the legal challenges facing environmental defenders in Africa.

The document analyzes the tension between Nigeria's 'Renewed Hope' National Development Plan (NDP) 2026-2030 and its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0). It highlights a historical coupling of economic growth and carbon emissions, where a 1% GDP increase has led to a 3.11% rise in emissions. While initiatives like Mission 300 and the DARES project promote renewable energy for electricity access, heavy industries like steel and cement remain reliant on fossil fuels, risking 'carbon lock-in'. The paper identifies a significant annual climate finance gap of USD27.2 billion and discusses the role of natural gas as a transition fuel under the 'Decade of Gas' initiative, despite concerns regarding alignment with 1.5°C goals.

Nigeria is positioning itself as an African EV hub by leveraging high vehicle demand and private sector innovation in battery swapping and asset financing. The proposed Electric Vehicle Transition and Green Mobility Bill seeks to drive this shift by mandating 30% local content for EVs by 2030 and providing tax incentives for manufacturers and users. While companies like Spiro and MAX are scaling infrastructure and fleets, the report suggests Nigeria could adopt a more gradual transition from imports to local manufacturing, similar to Rwanda and Ethiopia, to avoid stalling adoption.

The report explores how a differentiated global carbon tax—where rates are based on a country's income classification—could reduce fossil fuel emissions and foster economic growth in Africa. Under the 'Sustainable Africa' scenario, the African economy is projected to be 58% larger by 2050 than the 'Current Path', with significant reductions in extreme poverty and near-total electricity access, despite a larger economy. The document also highlights Africa's potential as a carbon sink through reforestation and land management to attract investment and carbon credits.

Nigeria wastes an estimated 250–300 million standard cubic feet per day (MMscfd) of gas through flaring and leakage, representing an annual loss of USD 1.2–2.5 billion. The policy brief argues that capturing and commercialising at least 50% of this wasted methane could unlock USD 1.5–2 billion in annual value, create 50,000–80,000 technical jobs, and improve public health by reducing ground-level ozone pollution. The proposed strategy focuses on existing and legacy infrastructure to avoid fossil fuel lock-in, utilizing low-cost measures like leak detection and repair (LDAR). Implementation is planned across three phases from 2026 to 2033, requiring a unified governance framework and robust measurement, reporting, and verification (MRV) systems to attract climate finance and carbon credits.