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The paper identifies a rise in conflict events and fatalities in Africa since 2010, concentrated in five countries: Nigeria, South Sudan, Sudan, CAR, and Somalia. It uses the International Futures modelling system to project three scenarios to 2063: a 'Base Case' of continued moderate growth, an 'African Renaissance' of inclusive growth and stability, and 'Politics of the Belly' characterized by elite exploitation and instability. The authors argue that governance is the primary driver of stability and that while democratisation is a general trend, the transition period often increases the risk of violence.

The analysis finds that armed conflict in Africa generally follows a global pattern of decline when measured relative to population growth, though this was disrupted by the Cold War and has seen a recent uptick since 2010. Africa is uniquely characterized by high levels of 'non-state conflict'—violence between armed groups not involving the government—which the author attributes to weak governance. While terrorism is rising globally, the Middle East is currently experiencing faster growth than Africa. The paper also highlights that internal conflicts now dominate globally over interstate wars, and warns that climate change may increase local conflicts over resources in northern and southern Africa.

The authors defend their use of a simple, transparent global oil model to estimate that the Keystone XL pipeline could increase global emissions by 0 to 110 million tonnes CO2e annually. They argue that the U.S. State Department's Environmental Impact Statement ignores the dynamic relationships between oil production, prices, and demand. While acknowledging uncertainties in supply elasticity and market behavior, they maintain that their approach allows for a range of possible supply responses and encourages open debate over 'black box' models.

The document assesses the impact of implementing the SSP2 scenario in the GCAM model, finding that a business-as-usual approach leads to a temperature increase of nearly 5ºC by 2095. It further evaluates a stabilization policy (RCP2.6) using a global carbon tax, which achieves negative emissions by 2100 through massive deployment of nuclear power, bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), and afforestation, though it highlights tensions between economic efficiency and regional equity.

The document outlines SEI's interdisciplinary approach to the water-energy-food nexus, emphasizing the need to integrate cross-sectoral interactions, ecosystem services, and multi-scale governance. It highlights the use of analytical tools like WEAP and LEAP to identify synergies and trade-offs in resource management. SEI advocates for participatory processes and the identification of policy 'entry points' to ensure scientific research translates into practical, sustainable solutions for resource scarcity.

The document argues that the global agro-food system is increasingly inefficient due to a disconnection between crop production and livestock, driven by rising demands for animal protein and high rates of food waste. It highlights that international trade of food and feed has increased eightfold over the last 50 years, leading to significant nitrogen pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. Using Spain as a primary example, the authors demonstrate how a shift from a Mediterranean diet to one rich in animal proteins has increased nitrogen pollution and created 'emission leakage,' where emissions associated with imported feed in non-Annex B countries exceed those from domestic production. The briefing suggests that reducing animal protein intake, decreasing food waste, and reconnecting crops with livestock are essential for global food security and environmental safety.

This executive summary evaluates over 40 studies on regional GHG reduction targets, highlighting how different effort-sharing approaches and equity principles lead to significantly different emissions allowances. It specifically examines targets for a 450 ppm CO2e stabilization level by 2030 and 2050 across various global regions and argues for more in-depth modelling to inform the 2015 international climate change agreement.

The report assesses how carbon pricing affects the competitiveness and investment strategies of energy-intensive industries (EIIs). It finds that while carbon costs are a factor, they are often secondary to energy and raw material prices. The analysis highlights the risk of carbon leakage, where production shifts to regions with lower emissions costs, particularly as demand grows in Asia. The report emphasizes that current short-term policy horizons, such as the EU's 2020 targets, are insufficient for the 20- to 40-year investment cycles typical of these sectors, suggesting a need for longer-term regulatory certainty and support for breakthrough technologies like Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS).

The document advocates for the Obama administration's proposed 2017-2025 vehicle standards to increase average fuel efficiency to approximately 50 mpg, arguing that fuel savings will outweigh the higher purchase price of cleaner vehicles. It dismisses expanded domestic drilling as an ineffective solution for reducing gas prices.

The authors find substantial support for the existence of democratic waves, arguing that they are driven by a combination of economic development, democratic diffusion from neighboring countries, the 'stickiness' of consistent institutional configurations, and systemic shocks such as world wars and the creation of new states.

The CRED v.1.3 model is an integrated assessment tool designed to project global climate and development scenarios over a 300-year period. It focuses on the distribution of climate damages and policy costs across nine global regions, utilizing a Cobb-Douglas production function and a vulnerability index to allocate damages. The model incorporates updated population data, four selectable damage functions, and abatement cost curves based on McKinsey data to inform global climate negotiations.

The research paper presents VI-CRED, a simplified vulnerability index used in the CRED integrated assessment model to distribute global climate damages across nine world regions. Unlike more complex indices, VI-CRED relies on three specific indicators: the share of GDP from agriculture and tourism, the percentage of the population living below 5 meters elevation, and freshwater availability per capita. The index identifies Africa as the most vulnerable region and the United States as the least. The authors compare VI-CRED with the DARA and Maplecroft indices, noting that VI-CRED's emphasis on water scarcity leads to a higher vulnerability ranking for the Middle East. The paper also projects regional climate damages for the year 2105 under business-as-usual and maximum abatement scenarios, showing that while absolute damages decrease with abatement, the relative share of global damages for Africa and Developing Asia/Pacific increases.

The text examines the evolution of Turkish foreign policy since the AKP came to power in 2002. It describes a transition from a cautious, secular, and Western-focused approach to a strategy that emphasizes Turkey's Muslim identity and seeks to increase its regional influence in the Middle East through 'soft power' and a 'zero-problems' discourse. The author notes that while the government maintains a 'value-based' foreign policy, it must balance this with national interests and the economic growth driven by these regional engagements.

The document argues that the 'nexus' of water, energy, and climate requires integrated modeling tools to avoid unwanted policy consequences. To address this, the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) linked its WEAP and LEAP systems. A California case study simulating the use of desalinated seawater to meet 5% of Southern California's urban water demand by 2049 found that while desalination could reduce water imports by approximately 300 million cubic meters per year in normal years, it would increase the water sector's electricity use by about 3 terawatt-hours and greenhouse gas emissions by 1.4 million tonnes of CO2e per year by 2049.

The document argues that climate, water, and energy are intricately linked, requiring integrated modeling tools to understand cross-sectoral tradeoffs. To address this, the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) linked its WEAP and LEAP systems. A California case study shows that meeting 5% of Southern California's urban water demand via desalination by 2049 could reduce water imports by 300 million cubic meters per year in normal years, but would increase the water sector's electricity use by approximately 3 TWh and GHG emissions by 1.4 million tonnes of CO2e per year.

A November 2011 national survey reveals that while support for the Occupy Wall Street protests varied significantly by political affiliation, a majority of all surveyed groups expressed anger toward Wall Street bankers.

The Stockholm Environment Institute's Climate Impact Equity Lens (CIEL) tool reveals that while aggregate economic models often suggest modest climate damages, these averages hide a wide disparity in outcomes. By comparing individual climate damages against the savings gained from not reducing emissions, CIEL demonstrates that the most vulnerable people—particularly in poor countries—are already facing net losses. While many currently benefit from the status quo, the tool projects that by 2100, the majority of the global population will suffer net losses, and by 2150, almost everyone across all regions will be net losers, except potentially in China.

The Climate Impact Equity Lens (CIEL) is a tool that personalizes the economic consequences of climate change by comparing individual avoidable damages against the savings gained from not paying for emissions reductions. Unlike traditional climate-economic models that aggregate data by region and use temporal discounting, CIEL focuses on individual archetypes and reports results by decade through 2200. It utilizes data from the Stockholm Environment Institute's CRED model to show that while some individuals may be 'net gainers' in the short term, the vast majority will become 'net losers' as climate impacts intensify, particularly those with high vulnerability in terms of income, geography, and economic sector.

The document examines Rwanda's post-genocide trajectory, noting significant achievements in economic growth, gender parity in parliament, and progress toward Millennium Development Goals. However, it argues these gains are offset by a lack of political freedom, citing the 2010 elections, the suppression of independent media, and the intimidation of opposition voices under President Paul Kagame's administration. The author warns that the suppression of civil society could lead to instability similar to the pro-democracy uprisings then occurring in the Middle East and North Africa.

The document examines India's strategic shift toward Africa to diversify its energy imports and reduce dependence on the Middle East. It contrasts India's 'hybrid model' of engagement—which combines resource extraction with capacity building and infrastructure development—against the more mercantilist approaches of other powers. The author argues that for the partnership to be sustainable, India should leverage its expertise in renewable energy and rural electrification to support Africa's own development goals.