Africa’s conflict burden in a global context

The analysis finds that armed conflict in Africa generally follows a global pattern of decline when measured relative to population growth, though this was disrupted by the Cold War and has seen a recent uptick since 2010. Africa is uniquely characterized by high levels of 'non-state conflict'—violence between armed groups not involving the government—which the author attributes to weak governance. While terrorism is rising globally, the Middle East is currently experiencing faster growth than Africa. The paper also highlights that internal conflicts now dominate globally over interstate wars, and warns that climate change may increase local conflicts over resources in northern and southern Africa.

• When adjusted for population size and growth, armed conflict in Africa generally follows the global trend of decline, although this pattern was temporarily reversed during the 1970s and 1980s due to the Cold War.
• Since approximately 2010, there has been a trend toward increasing armed violence, which may reverse the reductions achieved after the fall of the Berlin Wall.
• Africa is distinguished from other global regions by a consistently high level of 'non-state conflict', defined as armed force used between two organised armed groups where neither is the government.
• The prevalence of non-state conflict in sub-Saharan Africa is likely caused by weak governance, ineffective security agencies, and a lack of state control over national territory.
• While terrorism is increasing globally and in Africa, the Middle East is the region experiencing the fastest growth in terrorism.
• Global conflict patterns have shifted so that internal armed conflicts now dominate over interstate wars, which are generally more deadly.
• Climate change is expected to exacerbate local conflicts over livelihoods, specifically through increased temperatures and decreased rainfall in northern and southern Africa.
• The risk of death from non-state armed conflict between 1989 and 2013 was highest in Somalia, followed by Liberia, Sudan, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2014). Africa’s conflict burden in a global context. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/Paper273V4.pdf

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. Africa’s conflict burden in a global context. Institute for Security Studies, 2014. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/Paper273V4.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=Africa’s conflict burden in a global context |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=October 2014 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/Paper273V4.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2014africas, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Africa’s conflict burden in a global context}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2014}, month = oct, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/Paper273V4.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }