Critique Keystone Paper Response

The authors of a Nature Climate Change article respond to a critique by Dr. Michael Levi regarding their analysis of the Keystone XL pipeline's impact on global emissions. They defend their use of a simple, transparent global oil model over complex 'black box' models, arguing that their approach allows for the examination of alternative assumptions and a range of possible supply responses.

• The authors' analysis of the Keystone XL pipeline suggests that global emissions could increase by 0 to 110 million tonnes CO2e annually, depending on how much the pipeline increases oil sands production.
• The authors argue that the U.S. State Department's final Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) for the project fails to adequately consider the dynamic relationships between oil production, prices, and demand.
• The authors' central case for supply elasticity (0.13) is based on a 2020 oil consumption forecast of 96.62 million barrels per day from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, which corresponds to an expected price of $101.
• In a low-price scenario where oil is between $65 and $75 per barrel, the authors' model yields an emissions impact of up to 54 million tonnes CO2e annually, assuming a higher supply elasticity of approximately 0.85.
• The authors contend that market effects of energy supply investments are often neglected and can be significantly greater than typically accounted for in official analyses.

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (2014). Critique Keystone Paper Response. https://www.sei.org/perspectives/critique-keystone-paper-response/

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. Critique Keystone Paper Response. 2014. https://www.sei.org/perspectives/critique-keystone-paper-response/.

Wikipedia

{{cite press release |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=Critique Keystone Paper Response |date=15 August 2014 |url=https://www.sei.org/perspectives/critique-keystone-paper-response/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@misc{stockholmenvironmentinstitute2014critique, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{Critique Keystone Paper Response}}, publisher = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2014}, month = aug, url = {https://www.sei.org/perspectives/critique-keystone-paper-response/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }