Critique Keystone Paper Response

The authors defend their use of a simple, transparent global oil model to estimate that the Keystone XL pipeline could increase global emissions by 0 to 110 million tonnes CO2e annually. They argue that the U.S. State Department's Environmental Impact Statement ignores the dynamic relationships between oil production, prices, and demand. While acknowledging uncertainties in supply elasticity and market behavior, they maintain that their approach allows for a range of possible supply responses and encourages open debate over 'black box' models.

• The authors estimate that the Keystone XL pipeline could lead to an annual increase in global emissions ranging from 0 to 110 million tonnes CO2e, depending on how much the pipeline increases oil sands production.
• The authors argue that the U.S. State Department's final Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) fails to adequately account for the dynamic relationships between oil production, prices, and demand.
• The authors justify using a simple oil model over complex 'black box' models because it allows assumptions to be clearly identified, replicated, and modified to test alternative scenarios.
• In a low-price scenario ($65 to $75 per barrel), where supply elasticity would be higher (approximately 0.85 compared to the central case of 0.13), the authors' model yields an annual emissions impact of up to 54 million tonnes CO2e.

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (2014). Critique Keystone Paper Response. https://www.sei.org/perspectives/critique-keystone-paper-response/

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. Critique Keystone Paper Response. 2014. https://www.sei.org/perspectives/critique-keystone-paper-response/.

Wikipedia

{{cite press release |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=Critique Keystone Paper Response |date=15 August 2014 |url=https://www.sei.org/perspectives/critique-keystone-paper-response/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@misc{stockholmenvironmentinstitute2014critique, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{Critique Keystone Paper Response}}, publisher = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2014}, month = aug, url = {https://www.sei.org/perspectives/critique-keystone-paper-response/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }