Estimating Regions’ Relative Vulnerability to Climate Damages in the CRED Model

The research paper presents VI-CRED, a simplified vulnerability index used in the CRED integrated assessment model to distribute global climate damages across nine world regions. Unlike more complex indices, VI-CRED relies on three specific indicators: the share of GDP from agriculture and tourism, the percentage of the population living below 5 meters elevation, and freshwater availability per capita. The index identifies Africa as the most vulnerable region and the United States as the least. The authors compare VI-CRED with the DARA and Maplecroft indices, noting that VI-CRED's emphasis on water scarcity leads to a higher vulnerability ranking for the Middle East. The paper also projects regional climate damages for the year 2105 under business-as-usual and maximum abatement scenarios, showing that while absolute damages decrease with abatement, the relative share of global damages for Africa and Developing Asia/Pacific increases.

• The VI-CRED index is based on three primary indicators: the contribution of agriculture and tourism to regional GDP, the proportion of the population living at an elevation of less than 5 meters, and the amount of freshwater resources available per person.
• Based on the VI-CRED values, Africa is ranked as the most vulnerable region (0.43), while the United States is the least vulnerable (0.06).
• VI-CRED assigns a higher vulnerability ranking to the Middle East compared to other indices because it places a more significant emphasis on water scarcity.
• Projections for the year 2105 indicate that climate damages as a percentage of regional GDP will be highest in Africa, the Middle East, and Developing Asia/Pacific, and lowest in the United States and Eastern Europe across both business-as-usual and maximum abatement scenarios.
• A comparison with the DARA index reveals a discrepancy regarding Eastern Europe; VI-CRED ranks it as nearly the least vulnerable due to low coastal population and high renewable water per capita, whereas DARA predicts moderate economic losses and water stress for the region.

APA

Stanton, E. A., Cegan, J., Bueno, R., & Ackerman, F. (2012). Estimating Regions’ Relative Vulnerability to Climate Damages in the CRED Model. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-WorkingPaperUS-1103-v2.pdf

Chicago

Stanton, Elizabeth A., Jeffrey Cegan, Ramón Bueno, and Frank Ackerman. Estimating Regions’ Relative Vulnerability to Climate Damages in the CRED Model. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2012. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-WorkingPaperUS-1103-v2.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Stanton |first1=Elizabeth A. |last2=Cegan |first2=Jeffrey |last3=Bueno |first3=Ramón |last4=Ackerman |first4=Frank |title=Estimating Regions’ Relative Vulnerability to Climate Damages in the CRED Model |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=January 2012 |url=https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-WorkingPaperUS-1103-v2.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stanton2012estimating, author = {Stanton, Elizabeth A. and Cegan, Jeffrey and Bueno, Ramón and Ackerman, Frank}, title = {{Estimating Regions’ Relative Vulnerability to Climate Damages in the CRED Model}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2012}, month = jan, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-WorkingPaperUS-1103-v2.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }