Real People, Real Impacts: The Climate Impact Equity Lens

The Stockholm Environment Institute's Climate Impact Equity Lens (CIEL) tool reveals that while aggregate economic models often suggest modest climate damages, these averages hide a wide disparity in outcomes. By comparing individual climate damages against the savings gained from not reducing emissions, CIEL demonstrates that the most vulnerable people—particularly in poor countries—are already facing net losses. While many currently benefit from the status quo, the tool projects that by 2100, the majority of the global population will suffer net losses, and by 2150, almost everyone across all regions will be net losers, except potentially in China.

• The Climate Impact Equity Lens (CIEL) tool identifies 'winners' and 'losers' by comparing an individual's projected climate damages (such as flooding and lost income) against the savings they realize by not spending money on emission reductions.
• Vulnerability in the CIEL model is determined by four specific factors: per capita income, economic vulnerability (reliance on sectors like agriculture, fishing, and tourism), vulnerability to sea-level rise, and local water shortage adequacy.
• By 2100, the average person in Africa and Developing Asia/Pacific will suffer net losses, while the average person in China, Eastern Europe, the Middle East, the United States, and Other High Income regions will see net gains.
• Regional averages mask extreme internal disparities; for example, in Africa, a high-vulnerability person in Comoros faces devastating net losses due to fishing reliance and low elevation, while a low-vulnerability person in Gabon may see net gains due to oil industry income.
• Long-term projections indicate a universal shift toward net losses; by 2150, every sampled person in all nine world regions will experience damages exceeding savings, with the sole exception of China.
• To protect the most vulnerable, the authors argue that climate policy must be more stringent than what is suggested by regional averages, requiring emissions to be halved by 2050 and reduced to nearly zero by 2100.

APA

Stanton, E. A., Bueno, R., & Davis, M. (2011). Real People, Real Impacts: The Climate Impact Equity Lens. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-PolicyBrief-Stanton-RealPeopleRealImpacts-2011.pdf

Chicago

Stanton, Elizabeth A., Ramón Bueno, and Marion Davis. Real People, Real Impacts: The Climate Impact Equity Lens. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2011. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-PolicyBrief-Stanton-RealPeopleRealImpacts-2011.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Stanton |first1=Elizabeth A. |last2=Bueno |first2=Ramón |last3=Davis |first3=Marion |title=Real People, Real Impacts: The Climate Impact Equity Lens |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=November 2011 |url=https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-PolicyBrief-Stanton-RealPeopleRealImpacts-2011.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stanton2011real, author = {Stanton, Elizabeth A. and Bueno, Ramón and Davis, Marion}, title = {{Real People, Real Impacts: The Climate Impact Equity Lens}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2011}, month = nov, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-PolicyBrief-Stanton-RealPeopleRealImpacts-2011.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }