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La santé et les droits sexuels et reproductifs dans les processus de plans nationaux d’adaptation
The report analyzes 19 National Adaptation Plan (NAP) documents, sectoral health plans, and Green Climate Fund proposals to assess the integration of sexual and reproductive health and rights (SRHR). It finds that while health is universally prioritized as a sector for adaptation, specific SRHR issues are rarely addressed. The document argues that climate change negatively impacts SRHR and that the denial of these rights increases climate vulnerability. It recommends using existing gender and health guidelines, incorporating SRHR into vulnerability assessments, and fostering collaboration between government bodies responsible for climate, gender, and health to ensure inclusive and rights-based adaptation strategies.
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Document type: Report
UN humanitarian aid comes to Syria for another year: Predictable and Unexpected Compromise
The policy brief examines the 2021 UN Security Council agreement to keep the Bab al-Hawa border crossing open for humanitarian aid to Syria. It argues that Russia's support for the resolution, despite its preference for aid to flow through Damascus, was driven by a need to prevent the economic collapse of the al-Assad regime. The author highlights the role of a bilateral US-Russia deal and the diplomatic efforts of Ireland and Norway in securing the compromise. The brief also notes that while external stakeholders find the current fragile state of Syria acceptable, the lack of funding for reconstruction and regional instabilities—including COVID-19 and shifts in Iranian and US engagement—threaten long-term stability.
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Document type: Policy brief
Feedback on the Proposal for a Legislative Act to Reduce Methane Emissions in the Oil, Gas and Coal Sectors
The submission argues that the proposed legislation should be based on Article 192 TFEU for environmental protection and calls for a comprehensive framework including mandatory measurement, reporting and verification (MRV), rigorous leak detection and repair (LDAR), and a ban on routine venting and flaring (BRVF). It emphasizes the need for granular data, the inclusion of abandoned wells and mines, and the establishment of methane intensity standards, such as a 0.2% limit for the upstream oil and gas industry by 2025, to drive innovation and align with EU climate targets.
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Document type: Statement
Feedback on the Proposal for a Legislative Act to Reduce Methane Emissions in the Oil, Gas and Coal Sectors
The document argues for a stronger legal basis under Article 192 TFEU and proposes rigorous standards for measurement, reporting, and verification (MRV), leak detection and repair (LDAR), and a ban on routine venting and flaring (BRVF). It specifically highlights the need for granular data, the inclusion of abandoned wells and mines, and the implementation of methane intensity limits to drive innovation and align with EU climate targets.
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Document type: Statement
China’s engagement in the Middle East
China's engagement in Iraq and Syria is primarily driven by economic logic and the Belt and Road Initiative, though it increasingly faces security risks from terrorism and political instability. In Iraq, China has become a top trading partner with a heavy focus on oil, while in Syria, it provides political cover for the Assad regime and explores limited reconstruction opportunities. The document argues that China lacks a unified regional strategy, instead employing a cautious, pragmatic, and piecemeal approach that balances economic opportunism with a traditional policy of non-interference, though the need to protect assets may eventually push Beijing toward more active counter-terrorism efforts.
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Document type: Policy brief
Sweden as an Elected Member of the UN Security Council
The report analyzes Sweden's 2017–2018 term on the UN Security Council, examining how a small state can influence the body's outcomes regarding Women, Peace and Security (WPS). It details Sweden's strategic approach—rooted in its feminist foreign policy—to move WPS from a thematic 'add-on' to 'core Council business' by integrating actionable language into regular resolutions, particularly those concerning peacekeeping and political mission mandates. The authors provide a framework for assessing the impact of elected members (E10) through criteria of frequency, clarity, and priority of resolution language, while outlining the tactical maneuvering required to navigate P5 power dynamics and UNSC working methods.
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Document type: Research paper
Global access to cooling: Regional trends
Cooling access gaps for the rural and urban poor grew across all analyzed regions in 2021. In Africa, 776 million people across 31 high-impact countries face cooling challenges, with 215 million urban poor at highest risk. In Asia and the Middle East, the population at highest risk rose to 645 million in 2021, with significant rural poor increases in India and Bangladesh. In Latin America and the Caribbean, the number of people at highest risk in six high-impact countries reached 48.8 million, with the majority being the urban poor.
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Document type: Report
Heeding the Intelligence Warnings of the Next Crisis
The authors highlight the accuracy of previous intelligence warnings regarding pandemics to argue that similar foresight must be applied to climate change. They assert that unabated climate change will trigger global instability through food and water insecurity, mass migration, increased international tensions, and high-impact 'wildcard' events, necessitating a move toward net-zero emissions to protect global security.
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Document type: Statement
Iran and COVID-19: Timing Matters
Iran was the hardest-hit country in the MENA region due to a delayed lockdown and early reopening, driven by a lack of financial capacity to provide income support. US sanctions and falling oil prices limited the state's stimulus package to 0.2% of GDP, while the regime used security forces to control information and suppress protests. Despite a developed healthcare system, the pandemic caused private hospital bankruptcies and a shortage of medical staff.
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Document type: Policy brief
The Environmental Impacts of the UK Military Sector
The report finds that the UK military-industrial sector is a significant source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, estimating a total carbon footprint of 11 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent for UK military spending in 2018. It criticizes the Ministry of Defence (MOD) for selective reporting, noting that figures in the main text of annual reports cover less than one-third of total direct emissions. Beyond climate impacts, the document highlights a poor record in managing radioactive waste from nuclear submarines and warheads, and warns of catastrophic global cooling and famine should the UK launch its nuclear weapons. The author argues that only a fundamental shift in security strategy—away from long-range force projection toward territorial defence and human security—can align the military sector with climate goals.
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Document type: Report
Nuclear Energy Developments, Climate Change and Security in Turkey
Turkey is pursuing a civilian nuclear energy program to diversify its energy sources and meet rapidly growing electricity demand, primarily through the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant developed with Russia under a 'build-own-operate' (BOO) model. While Turkey adheres to international nonproliferation regimes and collaborates with the IAEA, the BOO model creates risks regarding regulatory oversight, information asymmetry, and potential safety compromises to reduce costs. Additionally, Turkey faces significant climate security threats, including drought and sea-level rise, which may impact the operation of its coastal nuclear sites. The program also reflects Turkey's complex strategic balancing between Russia and NATO allies.
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Document type: Briefing
Last year the U.S. Intelligence Community warned of a coronavirus pandemic. Will we heed their climate warnings?
The authors use the 2019 Worldwide Threat Assessment's accurate prediction of a pandemic to urge policymakers to act on similar warnings regarding climate change. They highlight how environmental degradation and climate hazards threaten global infrastructure, food and water security, and geopolitical stability, particularly in coastal areas and the Arctic.
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Document type: Statement
Geopolityka a Zielony Ład dla Europy
The author contends that the European Green Deal should not be treated as a separate environmental policy but as a geopolitical tool. By diversifying its economy and leading in clean technologies, the EU can reduce its vulnerability to pressure from the US and China and decrease its reliance on fossil fuel imports from authoritarian regimes. The text emphasizes that the transition must also address the stability of oil-dependent regions in the Middle East and North Africa and prevent internal EU divisions between East and West to avoid external interference.
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Document type: Research paper
The Conspiracy Theory Handbook
The document distinguishes between actual conspiracies and conspiracy theories, noting that the latter are often driven by feelings of powerlessness and amplified by social media. It introduces the 'CONSPIR' acronym to identify seven traits of conspiratorial thinking and provides a toolkit for communicators, including 'prebunking' and 'debunking' strategies. The text highlights that climate change denial often employs conspiratorial rhetoric as a political strategy to delay action.
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Document type: Guide
Countering the Drone Threat
The report examines the technical, legal, and strategic landscape of counter-unmanned aircraft systems (C-UAS), arguing that current technology is often ineffective and hindered by outdated legal frameworks. It assesses specific risks to Norwegian infrastructure, such as airports and oil platforms, and explores how Norway can leverage EU and NATO initiatives to enhance its capabilities while avoiding the over-securitization of civilian airspace.
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Document type: Report
Trudeau’s foreign policy: progressive rhetoric, conventional policies
The analysis argues that while Justin Trudeau has positioned Canada as a reliable, progressive partner for the EU and a defender of the rules-based international order, his actual record is marked by contradictions. Key discrepancies include a gap between international climate leadership and domestic support for extractive industries, a failure to meet UN peacekeeping pledges, and continued arms exports to Middle Eastern states despite human rights rhetoric. The document also contrasts Trudeau's approach with the more hawkish, US-aligned foreign policy proposed by Conservative leader Andrew Scheer.
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Document type: Research paper
MAKING PEACE WITH CLIMATE ADAPTATION
The document examines the intersection of climate change, security, and adaptation, arguing that climate impacts act as 'threat multipliers' that can destabilize states and international relations. It highlights risks such as transboundary water conflicts, food insecurity, Arctic geopolitical shifts, and mass migration. The authors warn against 'maladaptation'—adaptation efforts that inadvertently increase inequality or tension—and advocate for a 'preventive' approach. Key recommendations include creating multidimensional early warning systems, implementing risk-tolerant and 'nexus' financing for insecure regions, and ensuring adaptation strategies are timely, strategically targeted, and informed by political economy analysis to avoid exacerbating existing social and political frictions.
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Document type: Research paper
Raising Ambition Through Fossil Fuel Subsidy Reform: Greenhouse gas emissions results modelling from 26 countries
The paper finds that removing fossil fuel subsidies across 26 modeled countries leads to an average 6% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, which increases to 13.2% if combined with a 10% energy tax and reinvestment in renewables and energy efficiency. Globally, the removal of these subsidies is estimated to reduce emissions by 6.4% to 8.2% by 2050. The study highlights that governments save an average of USD 93 for every tonne of CO2e removed through subsidy reform, with total cumulative fiscal savings across the 26 countries reaching USD 2.56 trillion by 2030.
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Document type: Research paper
Raising Ambition Through Fossil Fuel Subsidy Reform
This research paper assesses the impact of removing consumer fossil fuel subsidies by 2025 across 26 countries, finding a simple average GHG emission reduction of 6% by 2030 compared to business as usual. The study argues that while FFSR alone is insufficient to meet Paris Agreement goals, combining it with a 10% energy tax and reallocating 30% of savings into renewable energy and energy efficiency could increase average reductions to 13.2% by 2030. It highlights that FFSR is a cost-effective tool, saving governments an average of USD 93 per tonne of CO2e removed. The paper also reviews the regressive nature of fuel subsidies and advocates for 'subsidy swaps' toward sustainable energy and social safety nets, noting that only 8% of current NDCs explicitly include FFSR.
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Document type: Research paper
The Fall and Rise of the Islamic State (IS)
The briefing examines the role of the Islamic State (IS) as a driver of global conflict, noting that IS-related conflicts constituted approximately one third of all civil conflicts over the past five years. It argues that IS increases conflict complexity and polarization, making peace agreements less likely. Analysis of IS in Syria and Iraq reveals a strategy that prioritizes fighting over economic development and targets Sunni-dominated areas and petroleum-rich border regions. The authors conclude that these patterns make IS a persistent threat in other resource-rich countries with uncontrolled hinterlands, such as Libya, Chad, Niger, and Nigeria.
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Document type: Briefing