Heeding the Intelligence Warnings of the Next Crisis

The authors highlight the accuracy of previous intelligence warnings regarding pandemics to argue that similar foresight must be applied to climate change. They assert that unabated climate change will trigger global instability through food and water insecurity, mass migration, increased international tensions, and high-impact 'wildcard' events, necessitating a move toward net-zero emissions to protect global security.

• Human-induced climate change, if left unabated, is projected to create severe and potentially catastrophic security risks across the entire globe.
• Climate instability, specifically extreme heat, drought, and precipitation, will undermine global water and food systems, likely increasing violence and the number of failing states in fragile regions such as the African Sahel and Central America.
• Environmental changes, including sea-level rise in South-East Asia and extreme heat in the Middle East, will render areas uninhabitable, driving unpredictable migration patterns that may trigger authoritarian responses and threaten democratic systems.
• Climate change may exacerbate international tensions, including competition for resources in the Arctic involving Russia and China, and increase distrust between the industrialized north and the vulnerable developing world.
• High-impact, lower-probability 'wildcard' events could trigger dangerous global consequences, such as rapid methane releases from permafrost, accelerated melting in Antarctica or Greenland, or the proliferation of pandemic-causing vectors.

APA

Conger, J., & Guy, K. (2020). Heeding the Intelligence Warnings of the Next Crisis. The Council on Strategic Risks. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2020/05/27/heeding-the-intelligence-warnings-of-the-next-crisis/

Chicago

Conger, John, and Kate Guy. Heeding the Intelligence Warnings of the Next Crisis. The Council on Strategic Risks, 2020. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2020/05/27/heeding-the-intelligence-warnings-of-the-next-crisis/.

Wikipedia

{{cite press release |last1=Conger |first1=John |last2=Guy |first2=Kate |title=Heeding the Intelligence Warnings of the Next Crisis |publisher=The Council on Strategic Risks |date=27 May 2020 |url=https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2020/05/27/heeding-the-intelligence-warnings-of-the-next-crisis/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@misc{conger2020heeding, author = {Conger, John and Guy, Kate}, title = {{Heeding the Intelligence Warnings of the Next Crisis}}, publisher = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2020}, month = may, url = {https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2020/05/27/heeding-the-intelligence-warnings-of-the-next-crisis/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }