Raising Ambition Through Fossil Fuel Subsidy Reform: Greenhouse gas emissions results modelling from 26 countries

This working paper models the impact of removing fossil fuel subsidies across 26 countries and reviews 60 research papers to estimate global greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions. It finds that subsidy removal alone leads to a national average emission reduction of 6 per cent, which increases to 13.2 per cent when combined with a modest energy tax and investments in renewables and energy efficiency.

• Modelling of 26 countries indicates that removing fossil fuel subsidies results in a simple national average of 6 per cent greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions from 2018 until 2025 compared to business as usual. This reduction increases to an average of 13.2 per cent by 2030 if an additional 10 per cent energy tax is implemented from 2025 until 2030 and 30 per cent of the resulting savings and revenues are invested in energy efficiency and renewable energy.
• Across the 26 countries analyzed, the cumulative fiscal savings from fossil fuel subsidy reform (FFSR) by 2030 are estimated at USD 2.56 trillion, with total cumulative GHG emissions abated of 4.8 GtCO2e. On average, governments save USD 93 for every tonne of CO2e removed through FFSR.
• A literature review of 60 papers on negative and positive carbon pricing shows that global GHG emission reductions from fossil fuel subsidy removal range between 1 and 10 per cent by 2030 and between 6.4 and 8.2 per cent by 2050. Combining the removal of subsidies with appropriate taxation could reduce global emissions by 28 per cent.
• The paper suggests that governments should view fossil fuel subsidies as a negative carbon price and integrate the co-benefits of GHG emission reductions from subsidy reform and taxation into second-generation Nationally Determined Contributions.

APA

Geddes,, P. G. G. W. G. B. V. (2019). Raising Ambition Through Fossil Fuel Subsidy Reform: Greenhouse gas emissions results modelling from 26 countries. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/publications/raising-ambition-through-fossil-fuel-subsidy-reform

Chicago

Geddes,, Philip Gass,Ivetta Gerasimchuk,Peter Wooders,Vibhuti Garg,Andrea Bassi,Balasubramanian Viswanathan,Anna. Raising Ambition Through Fossil Fuel Subsidy Reform: Greenhouse gas emissions results modelling from 26 countries. International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2019. https://www.iisd.org/publications/raising-ambition-through-fossil-fuel-subsidy-reform.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Geddes, |first1=Philip Gass,Ivetta Gerasimchuk,Peter Wooders,Vibhuti Garg,Andrea Bassi,Balasubramanian Viswanathan,Anna |title=Raising Ambition Through Fossil Fuel Subsidy Reform: Greenhouse gas emissions results modelling from 26 countries |publisher=International Institute for Sustainable Development |date=7 July 2019 |url=https://www.iisd.org/publications/raising-ambition-through-fossil-fuel-subsidy-reform |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{geddes2019raising, author = {Geddes,, Philip Gass,Ivetta Gerasimchuk,Peter Wooders,Vibhuti Garg,Andrea Bassi,Balasubramanian Viswanathan,Anna}, title = {{Raising Ambition Through Fossil Fuel Subsidy Reform: Greenhouse gas emissions results modelling from 26 countries}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {2019}, month = jul, url = {https://www.iisd.org/publications/raising-ambition-through-fossil-fuel-subsidy-reform}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }