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The study finds a substantial disconnect between African climate commitments (NDCs) and national development blueprints (NDPs), with NDCs focusing on climate-centric sectors like energy and forestry while NDPs prioritize economic growth, finance, and the private sector. This 'parallel policy framework' is driven by institutional fragmentation, where NDCs are often externally funded and led by environment ministries, whereas NDPs are domestically anchored and led by economic planning ministries. The authors recommend a 'whole-of-government' approach to embed climate goals into national budgets and development strategies to maximize socio-economic co-benefits.

The report analyzes the role of Global North private equity firms in maintaining fossil fuel assets across the Global South, highlighting a pattern of extracting profits while offloading environmental and social risks onto local communities. Using data from the 2024 Climate Risk Scorecard, it identifies 13 firms with assets in 32 Global South countries, with a significant concentration of risky assets in Latin America, particularly Mexico. The document details specific instances of pollution in India, social displacement in Brazil, and financial instability in the Philippines, while providing a comprehensive case study on Mexico's LNG and pipeline infrastructure. It concludes that the private equity model's lack of transparency and short-term focus exacerbate climate injustice and expose institutional investors, such as public pensions, to significant financial risk.

Deforestation in the Congo Basin risks reducing regional rainfall by up to 40%, which could lead to cumulative cocoa yield losses of 3.06 million tonnes across nine African countries by 2050. This supply shock is projected to drive cocoa prices to USD 68.1 per kilogram by 2050, with deforestation accounting for 40.2% of that price. EU importers could face cumulative additional costs of USD 256 billion by 2050. The report argues that investing in forest conservation, particularly community-led restoration, is more cost-effective than inaction, offering avoided costs of USD 1.8 to USD 6 for every dollar invested.

The document analyzes the Central African Forest Initiative (CAFI) and Gabon's 2023 debt-for-nature swap as models for mobilizing climate finance in Africa. CAFI, a multi-donor effort focused on REDD+, has achieved emission reductions in the DRC and Gabon but faces challenges regarding national ownership and a lack of explicit adaptation targets. Gabon's blue bond swap reduced sovereign debt by $125 million to fund marine conservation, demonstrating the potential of capital markets for conservation, though it is criticized for high transaction costs and limited transparency. The author recommends integrating adaptation objectives into CAFI, expanding the use of blended finance, and standardizing oversight for debt-for-nature swaps to prevent 'bluewashing'.

The LT-LEDS for Equatorial Guinea outlines two primary pathways for the country's climate future: a Base Scenario and a Mitigation Scenario. While the Base Scenario predicts a 31% increase in gross emissions by 2050, the Mitigation Scenario targets a 50% reduction in gross emissions compared to 2019 levels, aiming for net-negative emissions by 2050. The strategy focuses on four key sectors: Energy, Industrial Processes and Product Use (IPPU), Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU), and Waste. Key proposed actions include a total transition to renewable electricity by 2049, a 80% reduction in deforestation and forest degradation rates, and the implementation of a circular economy for waste. The document also emphasizes adaptation priorities, gender equality, and a 'just transition' to manage the economic risks associated with the country's high dependence on oil and gas.

The report finds that human-caused climate change significantly increased extreme heat and health risks globally from December 2024 to February 2025. At least 1.8 billion people experienced temperatures at least twice as likely due to climate change every day of the period, with exposure peaking at 3 billion people on February 28, 2025. Africa was particularly affected, with 293 million people experiencing 30 or more 'risky heat days' added by climate change. The analysis also highlights that 110 out of 220 analyzed countries and 287 out of 940 cities saw the average person experience strong climate influence for at least one-third of the season.

The report uses a GTAP-E model to find that a USD 100/t carbon levy would generally reduce GDP and household incomes across Africa, increase global food prices, and reduce the supply of maritime services. It highlights that African importers already face disproportionately high freight rates, which a carbon tax would exacerbate. The authors recommend that the IMO implement a redistribution mechanism based on climate vulnerability and historical emissions, providing direct grants for out-of-sector projects like green hydrogen and resilient agriculture.

The briefing argues that current oil and gas production trajectories are incompatible with the Paris Agreement, with projected production by 2050 potentially exceeding 1.5°C-aligned needs by 260% for oil and 210% for gas. It advocates for a coordinated global phase-out led by the G7 and G20, emphasizing that new extraction projects must cease immediately. The author highlights the necessity of climate finance, noting a gap between current annual climate finance (USD 1.3 trillion) and the required green transition investment for emerging and developing economies (USD 2.4 trillion). To ensure equity, the document suggests assessing transition capacity based on GDP per capita, government revenue shares from fossil fuels, and workforce employment in the sector, while calling for the phase-out of fossil fuel subsidies and the implementation of innovative funding, such as taxes on fossil fuel company revenues.

The author examines the tension in German foreign policy between corporate profit interests and a values-based rhetoric, specifically regarding its engagement with Africa. Historically, Germany's approach has been 'economistic,' focusing on raw material imports and machinery exports. The paper argues that current geopolitical shifts and the need for critical minerals provide an opportunity for Germany to move away from post-colonial models. It suggests that instead of merely securing cheap resources, Germany should support a pan-African industrial policy, the mobilization of domestic resources, and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to foster sustainable development and reduce Africa's dependence on raw material exports.

The document identifies a short-term opportunity for African gas producers to fill global supply gaps caused by the war in Ukraine, but warns that new infrastructure investments face a high risk of becoming stranded assets as the world moves toward net-zero.

The author argues that for MC13 to be successful, the WTO must move beyond non-binding declarations toward binding commitments. Key proposals include an exemption for least developed countries (LDCs) from food export restrictions to ensure food availability. However, significant disagreements persist between developing nations (such as India and China) and developed nations (including the US and EU) regarding public stockholding and the reduction of trade-distorting domestic support.

The report examines the potential effects of International Maritime Organization (IMO) candidate mid-term GHG measures on African economies. Using a CGE model, it finds that a USD100/t carbon levy would generally reduce GDP and household incomes across Africa, increase global food prices, and reduce the supply of maritime services. A case study of Ghana highlights existing freight cost imbalances and the risk of a stranded fleet of older vessels. The authors argue that for such measures to be equitable, revenues must be redistributed as direct grants (not loans) for out-of-sector climate resilience and mitigation, based on criteria including climate vulnerability and historical emissions contributions.

Between 2013 and 2023, scientists described at least 742 new species in the Congo Basin, including 430 plants, 140 invertebrates, 96 fish, 42 reptiles, 22 amphibians, 10 mammals, and 2 birds. The report emphasizes that the region is a critical carbon sink and biodiversity hotspot, but faces severe threats from illegal logging, poaching, mining, and infrastructure development. WWF is implementing conservation strategies including biomonitoring, FSC-certified forestry, and human-wildlife conflict insurance to protect these ecosystems.

The author argues that Germany is struggling to balance its 'exportist' economic model and corporate interests with a more recent emphasis on a 'rules-based order' and human rights in its foreign policy. Historically, German engagement in Africa has been characterized by a light footprint and a focus on extracting raw materials, such as oil and minerals. The paper suggests that Germany should move away from this extractivist approach and instead support African-led initiatives for domestic resource mobilisation and regional complementarities, particularly through the AfCFTA, to foster a more just and green transition.

The study analyzed bilateral climate finance from 2016 to 2020 for ten countries with low governance scores, finding a total disbursement of US$1.3 billion. The funding was heavily skewed toward mitigation (92%) and dominated by Japan, which provided US$1 billion specifically for natural gas-fired power plants in Uzbekistan.

The 2022 Regional Assessment for the Congo Basin reveals that while deforestation rates have historically been low, there was a 4.9% increase in forest loss in 2021 compared to the 2018-2020 period. Only Gabon and the Republic of the Congo are currently on track to meet the 10% annual reduction in forest cover loss required to reach the 2030 goal of zero deforestation. The report identifies subsistence agriculture as the primary driver of deforestation, while industrial mining, logging, and commercial agriculture pose the greatest risks to core intact forests. Despite the existence of legal frameworks and community forest laws in several countries, implementation is hindered by weak governance, lack of tenure security for indigenous peoples and local communities, and contradictory sectoral laws. Financial commitments, including USD 1.5 billion pledged by international donors between 2021 and 2025, are deemed insufficient to meet the region's needs, with the land sector needs of Cameroon and the DRC alone estimated at US$29.8 billion for 2020-30.

The 2022 Forest Declaration Assessment for the Congo Basin reports a rise in deforestation in 2021, with 636,000 hectares lost, meaning only Gabon and the Republic of the Congo are currently aligned with the trajectory to end deforestation by 2030. While the region is a critical carbon sink, absorbing 0.61 Gt CO2eq annually, it faces threats from small-scale agriculture, industrial mining, and weak land tenure security. Despite international pledges of 1.5 billion USD (2021-2025) and national legal frameworks, the report highlights significant gaps in law enforcement, intersectoral policy alignment, and funding for indigenous peoples and local communities.

The 2022 Regional Assessment of the Congo Basin reveals that while the region is a critical global carbon sink, deforestation increased in 2021 by 4.9% compared to the 2018-20 period. Only Gabon and the Republic of the Congo are currently aligned with the trajectory to end deforestation by 2030. The report identifies subsistence agriculture and infrastructure development as primary drivers, while noting that industrial mining and logging cause the most severe damage to intact core forests. Despite the existence of legal frameworks and international funding commitments, such as the USD 1.5 billion Joint Declaration for the Congo Basin, the report highlights significant gaps in policy enforcement, land tenure security for Indigenous peoples and local communities, and the alignment of economic development plans with forest conservation goals.

The Congo Basin, the world's second-largest tropical forest and a critical carbon sink, experienced an increase in deforestation in 2021, reaching 636,000 hectares. While historically low, current trends show that only Gabon and the Republic of the Congo are aligned with the 2030 goal of zero deforestation. Primary drivers include small-scale subsistence agriculture combined with road construction, though industrial mining and logging pose severe risks to intact forest landscapes. Despite the existence of legal frameworks and international funding commitments—such as $1.5 billion from COP26 donors—implementation is hindered by poor governance, land tenure insecurity for indigenous peoples, and a lack of intersectoral policy alignment. The report emphasizes the need for stronger community land rights and more transparent, quantifiable financial mechanisms to protect this vital ecological region.

The report examines the impact of global decarbonisation on Africa's natural gas sector, distinguishing between existing and emerging producers. It argues that faster global transitions to net-zero emissions will reduce LNG demand and prices, creating 'external' climate transition risks that threaten the viability of future projects. The analysis suggests that domestic demand is an insufficient hedge against these risks due to regulated low prices and the increasing competitiveness of renewable energy. Emerging producers are identified as particularly vulnerable due to weaker sovereign credit ratings and the timing of their infrastructure investments.