NAVIGATING CLIMATE ACTION

The report examines the potential effects of International Maritime Organization (IMO) candidate mid-term GHG measures on African economies. Using a CGE model, it finds that a USD100/t carbon levy would generally reduce GDP and household incomes across Africa, increase global food prices, and reduce the supply of maritime services. A case study of Ghana highlights existing freight cost imbalances and the risk of a stranded fleet of older vessels. The authors argue that for such measures to be equitable, revenues must be redistributed as direct grants (not loans) for out-of-sector climate resilience and mitigation, based on criteria including climate vulnerability and historical emissions contributions.

• A global shipping levy of USD100 per tonne of carbon is projected to reduce the supply of maritime shipping services among African countries by up to 7%.
• The imposition of a shipping levy is forecast to have negative but limited effects on GDP for most individual African countries, with Equatorial Guinea being the most affected at a reduction of 0.121%.
• The levy is expected to increase global prices for processed food commodities by 0.013% and agricultural commodities by 0.011%, which may threaten food security in African countries that rely heavily on food imports.
• Household incomes in most African countries are projected to fall, with Ghana forecast to see a 0.101% reduction, which is ten times the reduction predicted for European households.
• African trade routes already suffer from structural imbalances; for example, the emissions surcharge for Europe-West Africa trade is nearly ten times higher per nautical mile than for Europe-Canada trade under the EU-ETS.
• There is a significant risk of a 'stranded fleet' in Africa, as many vessels are old tankers running on heavy fuel oil and marine diesel engines that are too expensive to retrofit.
• The report argues that revenue redistribution should be based on a Multidimensional Vulnerability Index (MVI) rather than just Gross National Income per capita, to ensure countries like Ghana, which have high climate vulnerability but middle-income status, are not excluded.
• To adhere to the 'polluter pays' principle, the report recommends that revenues be transferred to climate-vulnerable countries as direct grants rather than loans or interest-bearing instruments.
• Decarbonisation of the maritime sector could provide an opportunity for Africa to become a major producer of green hydrogen, potentially reducing continental emissions by up to 40%.

APA

Ogbugo, M., Luke, D., Omoju, O., Davis, W., & Aggad, F. (2024). NAVIGATING CLIMATE ACTION. African Future Policies Hub. https://img1.wsimg.com/blobby/go/b2d05cc3-7b8c-4f0d-a62a-66af7434f28f/downloads/039f561d-45a6-4c4b-a3e3-5c88f2878645/Navigating%20the%20Impacts%20of%20Climate%20Change.pdf?ver=1780902966163

Chicago

Ogbugo, Maria, David Luke, Oluwasola Omoju, William Davis, and Faten Aggad. NAVIGATING CLIMATE ACTION. African Future Policies Hub, 2024. https://img1.wsimg.com/blobby/go/b2d05cc3-7b8c-4f0d-a62a-66af7434f28f/downloads/039f561d-45a6-4c4b-a3e3-5c88f2878645/Navigating%20the%20Impacts%20of%20Climate%20Change.pdf?ver=1780902966163.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Ogbugo |first1=Maria |last2=Luke |first2=David |last3=Omoju |first3=Oluwasola |last4=Davis |first4=William |last5=Aggad |first5=Faten |title=NAVIGATING CLIMATE ACTION |publisher=African Future Policies Hub |date=2024 |url=https://img1.wsimg.com/blobby/go/b2d05cc3-7b8c-4f0d-a62a-66af7434f28f/downloads/039f561d-45a6-4c4b-a3e3-5c88f2878645/Navigating%20the%20Impacts%20of%20Climate%20Change.pdf?ver=1780902966163 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ogbugo2024navigating, author = {Ogbugo, Maria and Luke, David and Omoju, Oluwasola and Davis, William and Aggad, Faten}, title = {{NAVIGATING CLIMATE ACTION}}, institution = {African Future Policies Hub}, year = {2024}, url = {https://img1.wsimg.com/blobby/go/b2d05cc3-7b8c-4f0d-a62a-66af7434f28f/downloads/039f561d-45a6-4c4b-a3e3-5c88f2878645/Navigating%20the%20Impacts%20of%20Climate%20Change.pdf?ver=1780902966163}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }