LA ESTRATEGIA DE DESARROLLO BAJA EN EMISIONES A LARGO PLAZO DE GUINEA ECUATORIAL

The Long-Term Low Emission Development Strategy (LT-LEDS) of Equatorial Guinea, published in June 2025, provides a roadmap to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050. The strategy compares a 'Base Scenario' of current policies with a 'Mitigation Scenario' aligned with the country's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), aiming for a 50% reduction in gross emissions by 2050 compared to 2019 levels. The document details sectoral actions in energy, industrial processes, agriculture and forestry (AFOLU), and waste, while addressing climate adaptation, gender equality, and a just transition.

• Under the Mitigation Scenario, Equatorial Guinea aims to reduce gross GHG emissions by 35% by 2035 and 50% by 2050 compared to 2019 levels. This path is projected to result in negative net emissions by 2050, with net emissions being more than four times lower than in 2019.
• In the Base Scenario, gross emissions are projected to be 31% higher by 2050 than in 2019, while net emissions would increase approximately sevenfold. The absolute difference between the Base and Mitigation scenarios in 2050 is 11,100 Gg CO2eq for gross emissions and 22,300 Gg CO2eq for net emissions.
• The energy sector's mitigation strategy focuses on a deep decarbonization of electricity generation, targeting 77% renewable generation by 2035 and 100% by 2049. Key actions include expanding hydroelectric capacity in both continental and insular regions, deploying large-scale wind and solar photovoltaic plants, and achieving 100% electrification of buses by 2050.
• The AFOLU sector is critical for carbon absorption. The Mitigation Scenario targets an 80% reduction in deforestation and forest degradation rates by 2050 compared to 2019. It also includes a national reforestation plan with a goal of 100,000 hectares by 2050 and a target to reduce agricultural surface area by 50% through professionalization and climate-smart techniques.
• Equatorial Guinea is highly vulnerable to climate change, ranking as the 86th most vulnerable country and 177th in terms of preparedness in 2022. Key risks include rising temperatures (projected increase of 0.9°C to 2.5°C by 2060), decreasing rainfall, extreme precipitation causing floods, and sea-level rise, which could reach 44 to 74 centimeters by 2100, threatening Bioko island.
• The strategy identifies a significant economic risk due to the country's dependence on oil and gas, which represents approximately 50% of the GDP. The global transition to low-carbon economies is expected to reduce demand and prices for hydrocarbons, necessitating economic diversification to compensate for lost revenue.
• The waste sector's mitigation plan involves increasing the national recycling rate from 10% to 37% by 2050. This includes promoting composting in urban areas and implementing biogas production in municipal landfills to reduce open-air burning.
• Implementation of the LT-LEDS will require a new Climate Change Law to formalize mitigation and adaptation goals, establish a permanent interministerial working group, and create a 'National Climate Change Fund' to manage public, private, and international financing.
• The strategy emphasizes a 'Just Transition' and gender equality, noting that women's labor force participation (46%) is significantly lower than men's (92%). The plan aims for equal participation of women and men in climate policy formulation and implementation by 2050.

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (2025). LA ESTRATEGIA DE DESARROLLO BAJA EN EMISIONES A LARGO PLAZO DE GUINEA ECUATORIAL. https://cdn.leap.sei.org/pubattachments/5171.pdf

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. LA ESTRATEGIA DE DESARROLLO BAJA EN EMISIONES A LARGO PLAZO DE GUINEA ECUATORIAL. 2025. https://cdn.leap.sei.org/pubattachments/5171.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=LA ESTRATEGIA DE DESARROLLO BAJA EN EMISIONES A LARGO PLAZO DE GUINEA ECUATORIAL |date=June 2025 |url=https://cdn.leap.sei.org/pubattachments/5171.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stockholmenvironmentinstitute2025estrategia, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{LA ESTRATEGIA DE DESARROLLO BAJA EN EMISIONES A LARGO PLAZO DE GUINEA ECUATORIAL}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2025}, month = jun, url = {https://cdn.leap.sei.org/pubattachments/5171.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }