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This report examines Sudan's development prospects through 2043, identifying the 2023 civil war as the primary constraint on growth. While the 'Current Path' predicts stagnant GDP per capita and persistent extreme poverty, a 'Combined scenario' of reforms in agriculture, governance, trade (AfCFTA), and financial flows could significantly raise living standards and lift 17.3 million more people out of poverty. The report highlights Sudan's vast untapped renewable energy and agricultural potential but emphasizes that a political settlement and the restoration of state institutions are absolute prerequisites for any sustainable recovery.

The March 2025 Peace & Security Council Report analyzes critical instability in South Sudan and Sudan, the African Union's (AU) struggles to manage post-coup transitions in several member states, and the shortcomings of AU election observer missions in 2024. It calls for the Peace and Security Council (PSC) to adopt more risk-based, high-level engagement strategies and improve internal coordination to prevent the fragmentation of states and the entrenchment of military juntas.

A rapid assessment by FSD Africa and FCDO Sudan analyzing the collapse of agri-food and payment systems in Sudan due to ongoing conflict, proposing targeted resilience-building interventions to combat acute food insecurity affecting over 20 million people.

This special report by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes poverty and income inequality in the Horn of Africa, forecasting trends through 2040. It highlights significant disparities in multidimensional and monetary poverty across the region, the impact of conflict and governance on economic stability, and the role of income inequality in poverty reduction.

This report by the South African Institute of International Affairs examines the complex relationship between climate change and violent conflict in Africa. It argues that while climate change acts as a 'risk multiplier' that can exacerbate existing political, social, and economic tensions, the link to violence is indirect and highly contextual. The document emphasizes the need for conflict-sensitive climate adaptation strategies, particularly in fragile contexts, and calls for the Global North to fulfill climate finance commitments to support the Global South.

The report argues that the 2019 Political Agreement for Peace and Reconciliation in the Central African Republic has failed due to a lack of implementation and the continued dominance of armed groups. It highlights a 'war economy' that incentivizes instability and notes that the state remains unable to provide its own security, relying on UN troops and bilateral support from Russia and Rwanda. The author calls for a new, holistic approach that prioritizes regional cooperation and economic reconstruction over simple power-sharing agreements.

The May 2020 Peace & Security Council Report by the Institute for Security Studies examines the African Union's (AU) challenges in the Sahel, the human rights risks associated with COVID-19 states of emergency, the adaptation of peace support operations (PSOs) to the pandemic, and the economic threat to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). It also analyzes the potential shift in the global order and the need for Africa to reduce its dependence on external support.

This report by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the trajectories of political violence in Sudan and South Sudan following the signing of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) and the 2015 Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (ARCSS). Using ACLED and UCDP GED data, it examines whether these agreements resolved, reshaped, or perpetuated violence, concluding that while the CPA ended a long civil war, it left other conflict systems unaddressed and reinforced a pattern of state-led political violence. In South Sudan, the ARCSS is described as having failed due to poor implementation and a 'winner-takes-all' political framework that incentivized continued violent competition for power.

This report from the Institute for Security Studies provides a retrospective of the African Union Peace and Security Council (PSC) for the term April 2016 to March 2018, analyzes the role of South Africa and Nigeria in continental initiatives like the AfCFTA, and features an interview with Morocco's Minister of Foreign Affairs regarding its entry into the PSC.

This policy brief by the Institute for Security Studies examines the disconnect between the African Union's (AU) African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA) and the African Governance Architecture (AGA). It argues that while poor governance is a primary driver of instability in Africa, the AU's responses remain reactive and fragmented due to institutional differences between these two frameworks. The author proposes several options to integrate governance and security, ranging from amending the Peace and Security Council (PSC) protocol to creating a unified 'Architecture for Stability in Africa' (ASA).

This policy brief examines the relationship between natural resource extraction and the funding of four violent extremist groups in Africa: al-Shabaab, the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA), the Janjaweed militia, and Boko Haram. It finds that while some groups rely heavily on illicit trade in charcoal, ivory, or gold, others have little to no connection to resource extraction.

The April 2017 PSC Report examines the AU's struggle to manage the Western Sahara crisis amid Morocco's readmission, the systemic failures of the Continental Early Warning System due to member state denialism, and the precarious security environments in Darfur, Mali, and Somalia. It also highlights a trend of democratic backsliding in Africa, characterized by the removal of presidential term limits and the shrinking of political space.

This policy brief examines South Africa's two terms as a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council (UNSC) in 2007–2008 and 2011–2012. It focuses on South Africa's efforts to strengthen the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA) by formalising institutional links between the UNSC and the African Union (AU), advocating for predictable financial resources, and promoting the role of regional organisations in security management under Chapter VIII of the UN Charter.

This policy briefing examines the South African government's position on the 'responsibility to protect' (R2P) framework, noting that while South Africa supports the principle of protecting civilians, it lacks a clearly articulated policy and prefers a moderate approach focused on dialogue and conflict prevention over military intervention.

This guide argues that States have extraterritorial obligations (ETOs) to protect human rights from environmental destruction and climate change. Using the Maastricht Principles, it asserts that States must regulate transnational corporations and cooperate internationally to prevent transboundary harm, citing examples such as illegal logging in tropical forests and hazardous shipbreaking in Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan.

This research paper analyzes Ethiopia's foreign policy and domestic transition following the death of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi. It argues that while Ethiopia has maintained economic growth and regional security stability, its ability to play a more strategic and transformational role in the Horn of Africa is hindered by a gap between its stated democratic doctrines and its domestic political reality.

This policy brief examines the African Union's (AU) security framework, its transition from the non-interventionist norms of the OAU, and its evolving partnership with the United Nations (UN) to maintain peace and security in Africa.

This briefing from the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) reports on a suspected coup attempt in Sudan in November 2012, detailing the arrests of high-ranking officials and analyzing the internal political and economic pressures facing President Omar al-Bashir's government.

This report analyzes the legal and political consequences of Malawi's June 2012 decision to refuse hosting the African Union (AU) Summit because the AU insisted on the invitation of Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir, who is wanted by the International Criminal Court (ICC). The document examines how Malawi balanced its international legal obligations and its need to regain Western donor support against its relationship with the AU.

This research paper by Daniel Large for the South African Institute of International Affairs examines China's engagement in Sudan between the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) and the independence of South Sudan in July 2011. It analyzes how Beijing transitioned from a predominantly bilateral, oil-driven relationship with Khartoum to a more complex, multifaceted engagement that included diplomatic and development efforts in Southern Sudan and peacekeeping in Darfur.