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The report analyzes Sudan's development prospects through 2043, identifying violent conflict as the primary constraint to growth. It uses scenario modelling to demonstrate that while the 'Current Path' leads to stagnation and high poverty, a 'Combined scenario' of reforms in agriculture, governance, and infrastructure could significantly increase GDP and reduce extreme poverty. The analysis emphasizes that peace is a necessary precondition for these transformations.

The report examines how Egypt, South Sudan, and Chad manage the influx of Sudanese refugees, highlighting a systemic gap between international legal commitments and the lived realities of displaced persons. It identifies specific failures in each country—Egypt's security-heavy approach, South Sudan's operational fragility, and Chad's institutional weakness—and recommends regional coordination through the AU and IGAD to establish a predictable protection framework.

The report examines Sudan's history of failed transitional justice efforts and proposes a multi-pillar framework—including mental health support, truth-finding, and criminal accountability—to achieve sustainable peace. It emphasizes that while a cessation of hostilities is ideal for full implementation, certain elements like psychosocial support should begin immediately. The authors advocate for a victim-centered, Sudanese-led process that integrates traditional justice mechanisms and maintains a transnational scope to address harms involving South Sudan and the diaspora.

The report analyzes multidimensional and income-based poverty across the Horn of Africa, noting that while the region is projected to see a decline in average poverty rates to 12% by 2040, it will fail to meet the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals for eradicating extreme poverty. It highlights severe disparities, with South Sudan and Somalia facing extreme poverty driven by conflict and weak governance, while Ethiopia has shown significant progress in poverty reduction despite ongoing regional conflict.

The document examines decentralisation across five Eastern African countries, highlighting a recurring gap between formal policy and actual practice. While Rwanda is noted for significant achievements in inclusion and service delivery through strong political commitment, other countries like Ethiopia, Kenya, Sudan, and Uganda struggle with elite capture, central government interference, and financial constraints. The report argues that decentralisation often serves as a tool for political control or patronage rather than genuine local empowerment, and recommends deepening participatory democracy and strengthening the capacity of local leaders.

The document examines the 'regionalisation' of peacekeeping in Africa, noting that troops from countries bordering crisis zones now constitute a significant portion of UN and AU missions. While these countries possess local knowledge, the authors argue that their involvement often prioritises national interests and 'collective defence'—the alliance against identified enemies—over the 'collective security' goal of addressing root causes. This shift is characterised by extreme militarisation and a lack of political strategy, which the authors suggest erodes the principles of impartiality and neutrality in peacekeeping.

The document argues that conflict-related sexual violence (CRSV) has historically been overlooked in peace talks but must be integrated into every phase of the peace process. It emphasizes broadening the lens of victims to include men and boys, who face significant social stigma and service gaps. The briefing provides specific recommendations for early-stage agreements, ceasefire negotiations, Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration (DDR), Security Sector Reform (SSR), and transitional justice, highlighting the need for accountability, gender-sensitive security indicators, and recognition for children born of wartime sexual violence.

The authors contend that environmental degradation and climate change are fundamental drivers of food insecurity and conflict. They highlight how resource competition in regions like the Sahel and Yemen fuels violence and extremism, while pointing to natural farming successes in India as a model for resilience. The document recommends that international security institutions acknowledge climate security risks to effectively address stability and displacement.

This report by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the trajectories of political violence in Sudan and South Sudan following the signing of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) and the 2015 Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (ARCSS). Using ACLED and UCDP GED data, it examines whether these agreements resolved, reshaped, or perpetuated violence, concluding that while the CPA ended a long civil war, it left other conflict systems unaddressed and reinforced a pattern of state-led political violence. In South Sudan, the ARCSS is described as having failed due to poor implementation and a 'winner-takes-all' political framework that incentivized continued violent competition for power.

The document examines the transition in Sudan after the ousting of Omar al-Bashir, highlighting the tension between the civilian-led Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC) and the military-led Transitional Military Council (TMC). It argues that while regime change occurred on paper, the 'Islamic security state' remains influential. The author outlines five scenarios ranging from a return to the status quo or civil war to successful systemic reform, emphasizing that economic recovery and security sector transformation are critical for success.

The paper argues that the 'water security' discourse often leads to the securitization of water challenges, which can justify the transgression of normative positions. In contrast, the authors propose a 'water equity' discourse that incorporates norm-critical considerations to empower sub-national agents and bypass traditional power-brokering cycles in addressing water controversies exacerbated by climate change.

The document assesses the financial links between natural resource extraction and violent extremism in Africa, finding that while the LRA relies heavily on ivory and the Janjaweed on gold, al-Shabaab primarily funds itself through charcoal taxation, and Boko Haram derives little to no revenue from resource extraction.

The African Union's African Standby Force (ASF) is unlikely to reach full operational capability by January 2016, but the AU has successfully demonstrated its ability to conduct peace operations using diverse models. The authors argue that the AU should move away from costly exercises and instead update the ASF's doctrine to reflect current conflict trends, such as counter-terrorism and asymmetric warfare, which differ from the original 2003 conceptualization.

The document examines how South Africa used its tenure on the UN Security Council to formalise institutional links between the UN and the African Union (AU), specifically through the application of Chapter VIII of the UN Charter. It argues that South Africa's efforts helped move the AU from a position of limited capacity to one of greater strategic co-operation, resulting in the creation of joint taskforces and improved coordination for peace support operations in Africa. The author suggests this 'hub and spoke' model of devolving security management to regional organisations offers a pragmatic alternative to the stalled process of formal UN Security Council reform.

The briefing examines the correlation between climate and political violence, noting that while conflicts cluster in dry and tropical zones, there is little evidence that climatic variability directly causes state-based violent conflict. Instead, the authors argue that climate change may increase conflict risk indirectly through three primary causal mechanisms: forced migration, food insecurity, and economic shocks. These effects are not universal but depend on 'scope conditions' such as poverty, poor governance, and political instability. The document concludes that the security challenges posed by climate change are essentially development challenges, and that investing in adaptation and good governance is critical to preventing a growing gap between stable, wealthy societies and those caught in a poverty and instability trap.

The document examines South Africa's complex relationship with the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) framework, noting a tension between its commitment to protecting civilians and its skepticism toward military interventions that may serve as pretexts for regime change. While South Africa helped integrate R2P principles into the African Union's Constitutive Act, its actions as a UN Security Council member—particularly regarding Libya—have led to perceptions of inconsistency. The author argues that South Africa prefers a moderate approach centered on dialogue and regional solutions, constrained by limited domestic resources and a strategic desire to avoid endorsing interventions that could be applied selectively in Africa.

The report assesses the UNAMID Police component, consisting of formed police units (FPUs), individual police officers (IPOs), and senior leadership. It highlights the mission's struggle to implement its protection of civilians (PoC) mandate due to severe obstructions by the Sudanese government, budgetary constraints, and personnel shortages. Key findings include the success of new tailored recruitment and performance management systems, but significant gaps in pre-deployment training and gender mainstreaming. The document recommends improved communication of the mission's mandate to internally displaced persons (IDPs) and enhanced training for language assistants and government police.

The document examines Ethiopia's foreign policy under the EPRDF-led government, specifically the Foreign Affairs and National Security Policy and Strategy (FANSPS). It highlights Ethiopia's dominant role in regional peace and security, particularly through IGAD and UN/AU peacekeeping missions, while critiquing the mismatch between this strategic prominence and the allocation of diplomatic and financial resources. The author argues that Ethiopia's focus on internal stability and security has led to a 'sluggish' approach to economic diplomacy and regional integration.

The document examines the role of 'emerging powers'—specifically China, India, Russia, and Brazil—in the two Sudans following the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement and South Sudan's 2011 independence. It highlights China as the most dominant actor, particularly in the oil and infrastructure sectors, while India's role is significant but more limited. The analysis argues that the 'South-South cooperation' rhetoric used by these states masks a reality of extractive economic interests that reinforce Sudan's unbalanced political economy. The paper details how the 2011 secession of South Sudan stripped Sudan of 75% of its oil production, leading to economic decline and shifting the strategic focus of Asian investors. It also discusses the impact of conflicts in Darfur, South Kordofan, and Blue Nile on foreign investments and the role of these powers in peacekeeping and arms transfers.

The report examines the 'technologization' of humanitarian work, highlighting how tools like crisis mapping, social media, and drones can improve efficiency but also threaten humanitarian principles of neutrality and impartiality. It warns that the lack of standardized guidelines for data collection and biometric registration creates significant privacy risks and potential for surveillance, urging Norway and international bodies like OCHA to lead in developing responsible technological standards.