Sudan and South Sudan: Violence trajectories after peace agreements

This report by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the trajectories of political violence in Sudan and South Sudan following the signing of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) and the 2015 Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (ARCSS). Using ACLED and UCDP GED data, it examines whether these agreements resolved, reshaped, or perpetuated violence, concluding that while the CPA ended a long civil war, it left other conflict systems unaddressed and reinforced a pattern of state-led political violence. In South Sudan, the ARCSS is described as having failed due to poor implementation and a 'winner-takes-all' political framework that incentivized continued violent competition for power.

• Sudan and South Sudan are among the African countries with the highest number of conflict fatalities between 2011 and 2017, despite the implementation of ambitious peace interventions.
• The 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in Sudan led to a dramatic decline in armed conflict and fatalities, resulting in approximately six years of 'negative peace' before violence revived during South Sudan's independence in July 2011.
• The CPA failed to change Sudan's fundamental political order and instead reinforced a system where the government in Khartoum uses force to suppress all political opposition.
• The exclusion of certain groups from the CPA peace process, particularly in Darfur, is linked to the outbreak of insurgency in that region as actors sought to challenge the concentration of power at the center.
• Following the CPA, the conflict in Sudan mutated into lower-intensity fighting via proxies, with an increase in conflict events involving ethnic and communal militias after 2005.
• In South Sudan, the 2015 Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (ARCSS) suffered from very poor implementation; by the time it collapsed in 2016, only 20 percent of its provisions had been implemented.
• The ARCSS reinforced a political order based on violent competition for resources and power, as the provision for a unity government followed by 'winner-takes-all' elections increased incentives for political violence.
• The collapse of the ARCSS led to the spread of political violence across South Sudan, including into Greater Equatoria, and an increase in violence against civilians.

APA

Bello-Schünemann, J. (2019). Sudan and South Sudan: Violence trajectories after peace agreements. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ear-22.pdf

Chicago

Bello-Schünemann, Julia. Sudan and South Sudan: Violence trajectories after peace agreements. Institute for Security Studies, 2019. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ear-22.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Bello-Schünemann |first1=Julia |title=Sudan and South Sudan: Violence trajectories after peace agreements |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=March 2019 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ear-22.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{belloschnemann2019sudan, author = {Bello-Schünemann, Julia}, title = {{Sudan and South Sudan: Violence trajectories after peace agreements}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2019}, month = mar, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ear-22.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }