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The research paper analyzes historical agricultural transformations in China, Brazil, and Egypt, highlighting the roles of institutional incentives, genetic seed tailoring, and targeted infrastructure investments in increasing yields and food security.

The document describes El Niño as a natural climate phenomenon characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. It argues that climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of extreme El Niño events, particularly Central-Pacific (CP) events, and complicating their prediction. For 2026, there is a 61% chance of an El Niño emerging between May and July, with some models suggesting it could be the strongest in 140 years. The briefing details global teleconnections, noting that El Niño typically causes droughts in southern Africa, Australia, and India, while increasing flood risks in East Africa and the Americas. These shifts significantly impact global agriculture, reducing yields for maize, rice, and wheat while often increasing soybean yields. Regional analysis highlights specific risks, such as increased cholera in East Africa, hydropower reductions at Kariba Dam in Zambia and Zimbabwe, and the Amazon becoming a net carbon source during Eastern-Pacific (EP) events.

The statement contends that the global fossil fuel system is inherently violent and volatile, citing 2026 conflicts in the Middle East and Venezuela as evidence. It advocates for the Santa Marta conference as a mechanism to move beyond the industry-influenced COP process to implement concrete actions, such as 'polluters pay' taxes on fossil fuel profits and grant-based climate finance for the Global South. The author asserts that the economic cost of fossil fuel price spikes outweighs the cost of transitioning to net zero, noting that 91% of new renewables projects are now cheaper than fossil fuel alternatives.

The Santa Marta conference on fossil fuel phaseout shifted the global conversation from whether to transition to how to implement it, establishing three workstreams for national roadmaps, financial restructuring, and trade alternatives. While the summit is praised for providing civil society and Indigenous Peoples more direct access to decision-making, the author warns that the process risks becoming 'consultation theatre' unless participation is substantive and roadmaps include accountability mechanisms and the engagement of major emitters.

The RCF-DCF Project is a USD 425 million initiative designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Brazil's Cerrado by providing low-interest crop finance to soy farmers who commit to deforestation- and conversion-free (DCF) production. Managed by Sustainable Investment Management Limited (SIM), the project utilizes a Luxembourg-based RCF Impact Fund and co-investment vehicles to issue 'green' Certificados de Recebíveis do Agronegócio (CRAs) backed by Cédulas de Produto Rural (CPRs). The project aims to protect 379,949 hectares of native vegetation and avoid approximately 25.58 million tCO2eq over its 20-year lifespan. It targets medium-sized farms and prioritizes female-owned operations to promote gender equality in the agribusiness sector.

The policy brief outlines seven critical functions that U.S. states perform to advance clean energy and climate goals, emphasizing that state-level action is resilient to federal political swings and provides scalable models for emissions reductions and economic development.

Ghana faces a critical juncture where economic recovery is threatened by a fragile, high-carbon energy sector and widespread illegal mining. The energy sector is characterized by high debt, a heavy reliance on thermal generation, and a lack of renewable energy investment. Simultaneously, illegal mining (galamsey) causes severe deforestation and water pollution, threatening food security and the viability of hydropower. The document proposes a transition toward sustainable growth through competitive solar auctions, the establishment of a green investment facility, the formalization of artisanal mining via the Ghana Gold Board, and large-scale ecosystem restoration.

The document explains the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and warns that a particularly strong El Niño is forecast, which may lead to record global temperatures. It details the diverse impacts of the 2023-2024 event in Latin America, including crop failures in Mexico and Central America, droughts in northern Brazil, and energy crises in Costa Rica. It provides a list of technical resources and experts for further reporting.

The research identifies significant regional and gender disparities in access to PRONAF credit in Brazil, finding that technical assistance (ATER) and cooperative membership are critical determinants of access. While the 2025/26 Agricultural Plan allocated R$ 78.2 billion to PRONAF, a previous study indicated that approximately 85% of smallholders lack credit access. Simulations show that expanding ATER would most effectively increase access in the North and Northeast, while strengthening cooperatives would be most impactful in the Southeast and Midwest. The report warns that declining federal investments in ATER—dropping to approximately R$ 26.48 million by October 2025—compromise the program's ability to build climate resilience among vulnerable smallholders.

The project aims to replace static connectivity models with a dynamic system using machine learning and remote sensing to track jaguar habitats and carbon stocks across 127 million hectares. It focuses on establishing scientific partnerships for data collection, developing a web portal for decision-makers, and building technical capacity among government and NGO stakeholders to integrate this data into national and regional land-use planning.

The report explores how a differentiated global carbon tax—where rates are based on a country's income classification—could reduce fossil fuel emissions and foster economic growth in Africa. Under the 'Sustainable Africa' scenario, the African economy is projected to be 58% larger by 2050 than the 'Current Path', with significant reductions in extreme poverty and near-total electricity access, despite a larger economy. The document also highlights Africa's potential as a carbon sink through reforestation and land management to attract investment and carbon credits.

The Forest Declaration Assessment recommends that the COP30 Presidency focus on four systemic levers to meet 2030 forest goals: aligning national ambition and planning, securing land rights and governance, reforming trade and real-economy incentives, and transforming financial systems. Key proposals include integrating deforestation targets into NDCs, ensuring 30% of forest finance reaches Indigenous and community organizations, repurposing harmful agricultural subsidies, and implementing mandatory nature-related risk disclosures for financial institutions.

The report finds a 'leadership vacuum' in the global food retail sector regarding methane emissions. Despite the critical role of methane in short-term global warming, none of the 20 largest retailers assessed publicly reported their methane emissions or set specific targets to reduce them. While European retailers generally outperform US retailers in acknowledging the climate impact of livestock, the overall sector shows a lack of transparency and ambition. The report recommends that retailers set science-based methane reduction targets of at least 30% by 2030 and shift their product portfolios toward a 60/40 plant-to-animal protein sales split.

The document analyzes how the 'attention economy' and the rapid integration of AI in advertising contribute to a global information crisis by funding disinformation and eroding trust. It highlights a 'governance gap' where regulatory frameworks fail to keep pace with AI adoption, leading to systemic opacity and the financial decline of independent media. The brief provides specific recommendations for advertisers to demand object-level transparency and for policymakers to establish enforceable labeling and auditing standards for AI-generated content.

The document outlines three distinct 'tracks' for a just transition from fossil fuels. The UNFCCC and Paris Agreement provide a universal framework for emissions reduction but lack explicit obligations on fossil fuel production due to their consensus-based structure. The COP30 Presidency Roadmap, led by Brazil, serves as a non-binding, non-negotiated forum to facilitate political dialogue and identify barriers to transition. The proposed Fossil Fuel Treaty seeks to fill the governance gap by establishing binding, supply-side commitments through a coalition of high-ambition states, focusing on ending new project expansion, implementing a science-based phase-out, and providing just transition finance.

The report analyzes the limitations of the UNFCCC's consensus-based model and the non-binding nature of Brazil's COP30 Roadmap, arguing for a binding Fossil Fuel Treaty to regulate supply and ensure a just transition.

The briefing compares three pathways for a just transition from fossil fuels. It notes that while the UNFCCC provides a universal framework for emissions, it lacks explicit obligations for fossil fuel production. Brazil's COP30 'Roadmap' serves as a non-binding political dialogue to identify transition barriers. The proposed Fossil Fuel Treaty aims to fill governance gaps through binding commitments to end new project expansion, implement science-based phase-outs, and provide financial support for affected communities.

The report details how the Nsuta manganese mine in Ghana, operated by the Ghana Manganese Company (GMC) and controlled by China's Ningxia Tianyuan Manganese Industry Group (TMI), is causing severe health and environmental damage. Findings include the use of toxic mine pit water for dust suppression, leading to skin, eye, and respiratory issues among residents, and the existence of an unstable tailings dump that threatens local homes. The report also highlights the risk to the Neung Forest Reserve, a critical biodiversity hotspot, as mining operations expand to meet the rising demand for manganese in EV batteries for companies like Tesla, Ford, and General Motors.

The report examines the tension between domestic data governance—driven by privacy, security, and industrial policy—and international trade rules. It argues that while data flows are essential for the global economy, the current legal architecture often reinforces structural asymmetries, where developing nations export raw data but import high-value services. The author analyzes the shift from WTO-led rules to preferential trade agreements (PTAs) and digital economy agreements (DEAs), highlighting the AfCFTA Digital Trade Protocol as a development-oriented model. The report concludes that developing countries must move beyond the binary of 'free flow vs. localization' toward calibrated, regional strategies that link trade commitments to implementation capacity and technology transfer.

The report argues that subnational governments are critical to the global energy transition because extraction facilities and workforces are located within their territories. It presents a toolkit of financial, regulatory, and enabling tools to help these governments phase out production, reduce environmental impacts, and diversify local economies. The authors categorize subnational regions into four types based on their production status and reserves, noting that early movers can reduce transition risks and attract low-carbon investment. Key recommendations include developing time-bound, sequenced, and financed roadmaps and avoiding diversification into carbon-intensive downstream activities like refining or petrochemicals.