THREE TRACKS FOR A JUST TRANSITION AWAY FROM FOSSIL FUELS

The document outlines three distinct 'tracks' for a just transition from fossil fuels. The UNFCCC and Paris Agreement provide a universal framework for emissions reduction but lack explicit obligations on fossil fuel production due to their consensus-based structure. The COP30 Presidency Roadmap, led by Brazil, serves as a non-binding, non-negotiated forum to facilitate political dialogue and identify barriers to transition. The proposed Fossil Fuel Treaty seeks to fill the governance gap by establishing binding, supply-side commitments through a coalition of high-ambition states, focusing on ending new project expansion, implementing a science-based phase-out, and providing just transition finance.

• The UNFCCC and Paris Agreement are limited in their ability to address fossil fuel production because the Paris Agreement contains no explicit obligation to address the production of fuels and the words "fossil fuels, oil, gas and coal do not appear anywhere in the Paris Agreement."
• The UNFCCC's requirement for consensus-based decision-making allows any single Party to hold an "effective veto," which restricts the level of ambition possible regarding fossil fuel supply.
• Brazil, as COP30 President, is developing a non-negotiated Roadmap on Fossil Fuels to generate political dialogue and guidance on national phase-out plans, though it cannot create "binding obligations, implementation mechanisms, reporting requirements or financial commitments."
• Current national government production plans are insufficient to meet global climate goals, as they put the world on track to produce "120% more fossil fuels by 2030 that is consistent with the 1.5°C limit."
• The proposed Fossil Fuel Treaty is built on three pillars: a legal obligation to end the expansion of new projects, a science-based and differentiated phase-out of existing projects, and the provision of just transition support through "concessional finance, debt relief, investment in alternative economic development pathways," and trade reform.
• The Fossil Fuel Treaty would use majority decision-making and incentive mechanisms, such as a "buyers-sellers club or debt resolution facility," to attract participation and penalize non-participation.
• The Fossil Fuel Treaty is intended to complement the Paris Agreement by addressing the "governance gap on fossil fuel supply," thereby supporting the 1.5°C temperature goal and the fulfillment of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).

APA

Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative (2026). THREE TRACKS FOR A JUST TRANSITION AWAY FROM FOSSIL FUELS. https://www.fossilfueltreaty.org/s/Developing-an-International-Regime-EN.pdf

Chicago

Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative. THREE TRACKS FOR A JUST TRANSITION AWAY FROM FOSSIL FUELS. 2026. https://www.fossilfueltreaty.org/s/Developing-an-International-Regime-EN.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative |title=THREE TRACKS FOR A JUST TRANSITION AWAY FROM FOSSIL FUELS |date=April 2026 |url=https://www.fossilfueltreaty.org/s/Developing-an-International-Regime-EN.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{fossilfuelnonproliferationtreatyinitiative2026three, author = {{Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative}}, title = {{THREE TRACKS FOR A JUST TRANSITION AWAY FROM FOSSIL FUELS}}, institution = {Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative}, year = {2026}, month = apr, url = {https://www.fossilfueltreaty.org/s/Developing-an-International-Regime-EN.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }