Search Climate Insights Directory

The document advocates for a 'socio-bioeconomy' approach, which prioritizes small-scale, diversified production over large-scale, low value-added agricultural or forestry products. Drawing on experiences from Thailand and Brazil, it proposes principles and recommendations to scale this model worldwide to support the goals of the three Rio Conventions and combat the polycrisis of climate change, land degradation, and biodiversity loss.

The project assesses how conservation policies, specifically payments for environmental services and protected areas, impact tropical dry forest deforestation in Costa Rica and Brazil. It highlights that conventional evaluations often overestimate the success of protected areas by failing to control for biophysical and socioeconomic factors, such as slope and proximity to roads. Findings indicate that the location of protected areas is critical, with higher deforestation prevention occurring near urban centers and national roads compared to remote or steep areas.

The project examines how changes in land cover—such as the transition from forests to agriculture and grasslands to tree plantations—affect the hydroclimate of the La Plata Basin. Using data from 1980 to 2005 and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) modeling system, the research assesses changes in soil moisture, infiltration, runoff, and the intensity and duration of droughts and floods. A key methodological innovation is the use of Ecosystem Functional Types (EFTs) to replace static land cover types in regional models.

The research examines the drivers of ecosystem boundary shifts across diverse environments. In the Venezuelan Andes, warming is pushing tree lines upward, though human disturbance can reverse this trend. In Brazil and Canada, the growth-stimulating effects of increased atmospheric CO2 are being offset by water scarcity. Additionally, the study highlights that 80% of the Gran Chaco dry forest has been deforested due to land-use changes driven by remote markets, such as soy, and facilitated by increased precipitation.

The project introduces the Local Knowledge Scenarios (LKS) method to integrate local perceptions of global change into land-use planning. Testing across diverse ecosystems in Brazil, Canada, Peru, and Uruguay reveals that while local awareness of environmental degradation is high, national policies often fail to align with local realities or acceptance, hindering effective environmental governance.

The project introduces the Local Knowledge Scenarios (LKS) method, which integrates fieldwork and Agent-Based Models to document local perceptions of environmental change and their impact on decision-making. Testing across five diverse ecological zones in the Americas revealed that while local awareness of issues like deforestation and hydrological change is increasing, the effectiveness of environmental governance is often hindered by a lack of local acceptance of laws or the absence of flexible national policies for adaptation.

The project introduced seasonal climate forecasts and crop growth models to soybean producers in Paraguay and Brazil to manage risks associated with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability. By collaborating with local cooperatives, the project developed an internet-based climate information system using a probabilistic approach to help farmers make informed decisions regarding planting dates and variety selection. The initiative gained strong producer support, leading three cooperatives to fund weather stations.

The project examines how ocean currents, wind patterns, and river runoff influence pink shrimp (Farfantepenaeus paulensis) harvests in Brazil's Patos Lagoon. It highlights that environmental risks are exacerbated by rigid policies, such as fixed fishing seasons and easy credit leading to fleet overcapacity. The research aims to improve fisheries management and catch prediction models by understanding the interaction between social vulnerability and environmental processes.

The research examines how ecotones are defined by plant functional traits and their vulnerability to climate and human intervention. Findings indicate that while climate warming in the Venezuelan Andes pushes treelines upward, human disturbance can move them downward. In the Gran Chaco, deforestation is driven by land use and increased rainfall. Additionally, the study challenges the assumption that higher CO2 levels always boost plant growth, noting that in Canada and Brazil, this effect is offset by decreasing water availability.

The GovernAgua project aims to transition water governance in Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay from reactive to anticipatory models. By analyzing six river basins, the project seeks to develop a system of collective intelligence and experimental governance to enhance ecosystem services and human well-being. Initial findings highlight a shift from hierarchical to integrated governance models following national constitutional reforms, though progress varies by country, with Argentina showing less developed participatory legislation compared to Brazil and Uruguay.

The MAP-Fire project investigates the increasing risk of wildfires in the Amazon, particularly in the transborder region of Madre de Dios (Peru), Acre (Brazil), and Pando (Bolivia). It aims to quantify fire impacts, identify bottlenecks in monitoring strategies, increase population risk awareness, and influence conservation policies to support Sustainable Development Goals and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. Findings indicate that 2019 fires in Acre burned 1,802 km2—an 80% increase over 2018—leading to 21 days where air pollution exceeded WHO limits. The project also highlights that standard wildfire contingency plans are ineffective during extreme droughts, which increase forest vulnerability and affected areas.

The MAP-Fire project (2019–2022) focused on the 'MAP' region (Madre de Dios in Peru, Acre in Brazil, and Pando in Bolivia) to address the increasing risk of forest fires driven by climate change and land-use changes. Key achievements include the development of a real-time fire monitoring platform, the quantification of significant economic losses in Acre, Brazil, and the identification of air quality crises linked to fire events. The project also integrated fire risk education into public schools and provided technical reports to governments to support National Determined Contributions (NDCs) and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction.

The global bioeconomy, currently valued at US$4-5 trillion with potential growth to US$30 trillion by 2050, is presented as a critical complement to clean tech for achieving a just transition. The document identifies significant financing barriers, including perverse fossil fuel subsidies and limited risk capital in the Global South, while proposing a suite of sustainable finance instruments—such as nature credits and sustainability-linked financing—to bridge these gaps. It advocates for an integrated approach combining national strategies with international cooperation, specifically through the G20, to establish common principles, measurement standards, and trade rules that protect biodiversity and the rights of Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities.

Between 2021 and 2023, bioeconomy finance in Brazil averaged US$ 3.213 billion per year, heavily concentrated in planted forests and bioenergy. While private domestic sources provided 69% of funding, biodiversity-based products and the Northern region remain significantly underfunded compared to industrial crops and other regions.

The EU CRMA and UK CMS aim to reduce dependence on China and secure supplies for the green transition, but their domestic focus may hinder African industrialization. While the EU targets 10% domestic mining and 40% processing by 2030, its international partnerships are criticized as extractivist. The brief highlights a misalignment in 'criticality' definitions, where African states prioritize regional industrialization and specific minerals like gold or coal, which may conflict with Western climate goals or sanctions. It concludes that without a shift toward supporting in-country processing and reducing certification costs for local firms, these strategies will fail to create mutually beneficial partnerships.

In 2023, Global Witness documented 196 murders of land and environmental defenders, contributing to a total of 2,106 since 2012. Latin America remains the most dangerous region, accounting for 85% of 2023 cases, with Colombia recording the highest number of killings (79). The report highlights a systemic pattern of violence including forced disappearances in Mexico and judicial harassment in Asia. Mining is identified as the primary industrial driver of these killings. The document argues that indigenous peoples, who protect 80% of the world's remaining biodiversity, are disproportionately targeted. It calls for the implementation of the Escazú Agreement and greater inclusion of indigenous knowledge in global climate negotiations.

The document reports a global trend of governments criminalizing environmental protests to protect corporate interests and maintain public order. It details specific crackdowns in Latin America, Asia, Europe, and North America, noting that activists face charges ranging from trespassing to terrorism. The text highlights that this trend extends to international COP conferences and is criticized by the United Nations, which argues that activists perform a vital function in advocating for environmental reforms.

The document examines the systemic under-supply of funding for global public goods (GPGs), such as climate mitigation and pandemic preparedness, relative to the trillions of dollars required. It analyzes current G20 initiatives and the roles of the IMF and World Bank, while discussing a proposal from the Indian Council for Research in International Economic Relations (ICRIER) to create a consolidated GPG bank. The author provides recommendations for the South African G20 presidency to lead on consolidating funding windows, establishing equitable governance, and exploring global taxes to bridge the financing gap.

The document highlights the tension between global trade and agricultural sustainability, noting that while trade is essential for food security, it can exacerbate deforestation and greenhouse gas emissions. It argues that while individual governments can implement sustainable trade tools, collective action through the WTO would increase effectiveness. The author suggests several avenues for this cooperation, including reinvigorating existing committees, utilizing the Trade and Environmental Sustainability Structured Discussions (TESSD), or adopting a dedicated dialogue proposed by Brazil.

The policy brief highlights the economic importance of natural capital, noting that nature's services are valued at over 1.5 times global GDP. It emphasizes that Africa, despite possessing vast resources, is the only region where natural capital per capita declined between 1995 and 2018. The authors recommend that South Africa's 2025 G20 presidency should build consensus on a definition of natural capital, address data gaps through the G20 Data Gaps Initiative, and implement a bioeconomy hub to translate the Brazilian Bioeconomy Initiative into practical investment and growth.