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The report finds that Equinor's historical and planned production significantly exceed science-based carbon budgets. Since 1972, Equinor's assets have caused 8.66 GtCO2 in emissions, with the majority originating from Norway. The analysis argues that Equinor's current global portfolio and future expansion plans are incompatible with a 1.5°C pathway, overshooting the IEA NZE benchmark by 0.93 GtCO2 between 2024 and 2050. It further critiques Equinor's 'Bridges' scenario for relying on outdated carbon budget data and unproven carbon removal technologies.

The report analyzes Tunisia's development prospects up to 2043, comparing a 'Current Path' of modest growth with various sectoral scenarios. It finds that while Tunisia has strong foundations in education and health, it faces structural stagnation, high youth unemployment, and an energy deficit. A 'Combined scenario' integrating reforms in governance, manufacturing, agriculture, and trade could significantly boost GDP, reduce extreme poverty to 0.7%, and lower the Gini coefficient to 0.30, though a persistent energy gap remains.

The document outlines Tunisia's trajectory from independence in 1956 through the 2010 Freedom and Dignity Revolution and the subsequent democratic transition. It highlights a recent period of democratic regression since 2021 under President Kaïs Saïed, alongside deteriorating economic conditions characterized by rising public debt, high youth unemployment, and stalled IMF negotiations. The text notes that while Tunisia has a skilled labor force, its development is hindered by structural weaknesses and the impacts of climate change on water security and agriculture.

Niger is a low-income, landlocked country in Western Africa facing severe developmental challenges, ranking 189th out of 191 countries on the 2024 Human Development Index. The country is characterized by extreme heat and rainfall variability, with desertification and climate change increasing vulnerabilities. Politically, Niger has experienced a history of instability, most recently marked by a July 2023 military coup that deposed President Mohamed Bazoum. This shift led to the withdrawal of French and US military forces and Niger's exit from ECOWAS and the G5 Sahel to join the Alliance of Sahel States and the Confederation of Sahel States. Despite seeking new partners like Russia, China, and Türkiye, the security situation remains precarious due to Islamist insurgent activity and internal dissent from groups such as the Patriotic Liberation Front.

The report analyzes Africa's unique governance trajectory, noting that the territorial state was a late colonial imposition. It details how slavery and the Cold War hindered state formation and discusses the subsequent waves of democratisation, highlighting a significant gap between electoral and liberal democracy on the continent.

The 2026 Hormuz crisis, triggered by a US-Israel war with Iran, is projected to increase Türkiye's energy import bill by $14 billion by the end of 2026. This increase is driven by a 50% surge in Brent crude oil prices and a 45% rise in European gas prices. Türkiye's high import dependence—95% for natural gas, 83% for crude oil, and 60% for coal—makes its economy structurally vulnerable to global price shocks. Road transport is the largest contributor to the energy bill, accounting for nearly one-third of the total in 2025. The report suggests that transitioning to electric vehicles and heat pumps could permanently lower import costs, noting that 1 million electric cars could save $900 million annually and a 10% transition to heat pumps in homes could save $1 billion annually.

The document analyzes methane emissions in Algeria's oil and gas sector, estimating annual emissions at 2,304 kt. It finds that 41% of these emissions can be abated using low-cost technologies, with the highest potential coming from eliminating unlit flaring and implementing leak detection and repair (LDAR) programs. The analysis highlights that the lack of a dedicated methane regulatory framework and low domestic gas prices hinder mitigation, while the EU Methane Regulation presents a significant external driver for alignment to maintain market access.

The report evaluates methane abatement in Algeria, Angola, Argentina, Brazil, Egypt, Ghana, Libya, Mexico, and Nigeria, focusing on leak detection and repair (LDAR), vapor recovery units (VRUs), improved flaring practices, and replacing gas-driven pneumatic equipment. Using a bottom-up marginal abatement cost curve (MACC) approach, the study finds that most mitigation measures fall below a low-cost threshold of 596 USD/tCH4 (20 USD/tCO2e). The economic viability of these measures is heavily dependent on the ability to monetize recovered gas, with LDAR and pneumatic equipment replacement often yielding negative marginal costs (net savings) when gas prices are sufficiently high. The report identifies significant structural barriers, including infrastructure gaps and limited local technical capacity, and recommends a combination of regulatory frameworks, targeted financial incentives, and infrastructure investment to accelerate deployment.

The document analyzes methane abatement through improved flaring practices in nine African and Latin American countries. It identifies removing unlit flaring as a priority low-cost action and notes that while most measures fall below a low-cost threshold of 596 USD/tCH4, costs vary by country based on flaring volumes per site. Key barriers include regulatory focuses on flaring volumes rather than efficiency and high operation and maintenance requirements.

The document evaluates the replacement of methane-bleeding pneumatic devices in the oil and gas sector with electric or instrument air systems. It finds that while adoption is already medium-to-high in several assessed countries, the remaining abatement potential is cost-effective, with instrument air systems often falling below a low-cost threshold of 596 USD/tCH4. Key barriers to further deployment include technical constraints at aging facilities and weak economic incentives where gas has low commercial value.

The report argues that current transition finance frameworks lack the systemic safeguards necessary to prevent carbon lock-in, particularly in hard-to-abate sectors. It proposes moving from asset-level financing to a systemic approach underpinned by Paris-aligned, subnational net-zero pathways. The document examines the gap between corporate transition plans and the requirements for credible transition finance, noting that many high-emitting oil, gas, and agrifood entities lack mature strategies. It advocates for the use of Paris-aligned taxonomies to ensure that use-of-proceeds (UoP) instruments drive genuine decarbonisation without creating 'dead-end pathways'.

The report projects Morocco's GDP to reach US$253.4 billion by 2043 on its current path, with potential to reach US$384 billion in a combined scenario. While the country benefits from a demographic window of opportunity and a shift toward high-value manufacturing, it faces significant challenges including severe water stress, heavy energy import dependence, and a large informal economy. Key growth drivers identified include the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), governance reforms, and strategic investments in education and infrastructure.

The document introduces Morocco's geography, noting its unique position as the only African country with both Atlantic and Mediterranean coastlines and a land border with the European Union. It outlines the country's political structure as a unitary semi-constitutional monarchy and details territorial disputes regarding Western Sahara and Spanish enclaves. Finally, it notes that Morocco faces severe climate change risks, specifically increasing temperatures and decreased rainfall.

The report forecasts Equatorial Guinea's development through 2043, highlighting a stark contrast between high GDP per capita driven by oil and extreme poverty. It predicts rapid urbanization, a shift from oil to gas production, and a widening gap in agricultural self-sufficiency.

Libya is an upper-middle-income country in North Africa characterized by a vast desert interior and a densely populated Mediterranean coast. Its economy is overwhelmingly dependent on oil, which provides over 90% of government revenues and export earnings, though output is volatile due to political instability. Since the 2011 collapse of the Gaddafi regime, the country has faced political fragmentation, recurring civil conflict, and a contested hybrid governance system with parallel institutions in the east and west. Geographically, Libya serves as a strategic transit point for migration toward Europe, a role that heavily impacts the country.

Mauritania is a lower-middle-income country in Northwest Africa characterized by an arid climate, a mining-led economy, and a multi-ethnic society. While the country has transitioned toward a semi-presidential republic with peaceful leadership transitions, it continues to face challenges including corruption, restricted civil liberties, and entrenched slavery.

The report analyzes Africa's progress toward a demographic dividend, noting that most of the continent is in the early stages of this transition. While 11 countries have already entered a demographic window of opportunity, most others will do so much later, with some regions not reaching the critical 1.7:1 worker-to-dependant ratio until the mid-21st century. The author argues that realizing this dividend requires simultaneous improvements in fertility rates, health, education, and employment systems.

The report concludes that Algeria's potential remains unfulfilled due to a dependency on hydrocarbons, poor agricultural yields, and weak governance. It advocates for a multi-sectoral approach to diversification, including investments in climate-smart agriculture, renewable energy, and the liberalisation of the economy to reduce the state's dominance in business and banking.

The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario is projected to significantly increase North Africa's GDP per capita and total GDP by 2043, with the most substantial gains driven by free trade under AfCFTA, manufacturing, and leapfrogging. While the scenario predicts a sharp decline in extreme poverty—particularly in Mauritania and Egypt—it also forecasts a 17% increase in carbon emissions compared to the Current Path, primarily driven by Egypt and Algeria.

The document describes Africa's physical geography, including its diverse climates and major river systems, and its political structure consisting of 54 sovereign states and the African Union. It highlights the continent's significant economic challenges, noting that it contains the highest proportion of the world's low-income countries, while also detailing its immense linguistic, ethnic, and religious diversity.