Search Climate Insights Directory

The Union of Concerned Scientists argues that current U.S. biofuels policy is costly and ineffective, primarily supporting mature food-based industries while cellulosic biofuels remain stalled. The report proposes the 'Billion Gallon Challenge' to provide capital support for the first billion gallons of annual cellulosic capacity and a 'Biofuels Performance Tax Credit' to replace existing credits with incentives based on actual life-cycle emissions reductions.

The IAI Directorate Report details a period of significant scientific productivity contrasted with a severe core funding crisis caused by member country non-payments. While the institute successfully advanced research on ecosystem boundaries, urban emissions, and Andean biodiversity, it faced operational disruptions, including temporary salary halts and the cancellation of travel for international climate negotiations. The report emphasizes the transition of the IAI from a funding agency to an active participant in science-policy dialogue and highlights the need for sustainable financial commitments from member states.

The IAI report for 2009-2010 highlights a transition toward active science communication and synthesis, despite severe financial crises caused by member state payment arrears. Scientific achievements include regional climate modeling for South American megacities, analysis of carbon loss in the La Plata Basin, and studies on Andean biodiversity and tropical cyclones. The institute also focused on capacity building through training institutes in Costa Rica, Argentina, and Chile, while managing critical infrastructure needs and diplomatic relations with host country Brazil.

The project investigates how climate variability and land use changes affect irrigated agriculture, specifically examining the Rio Segundo basin in Argentina and the Maipo river basin in Chile. Findings indicate that in Rio Segundo, agricultural expansion was driven by globalization and increased rainfall, with soy bean area growing nearly 18 times. In the Maipo river basin, analysis suggests that permanent water rights could fail to meet increased demand under global warming in 40-50% of cases, compared to a current failure rate of 6-20%.

The Union of Concerned Scientists argues that current U.S. biofuel policies are costly and ineffective, primarily supporting mature corn ethanol industries while cellulosic biofuels remain stalled. The report proposes 'The Billion Gallon Challenge' to provide investment tax credits and loan guarantees for 10 to 20 new commercial-scale cellulosic facilities. Additionally, it suggests replacing existing tax credits with a 'Biofuels Performance Tax Credit' that rewards fuels based on their ability to replace oil and reduce global warming emissions. Together, these measures could reduce global warming emissions by nearly 100 million metric tons annually by 2022.

The DiverSus Collaborative Research Network investigates the relationship between land cover change, functional biodiversity, and ecosystem services. The project aims to create a conceptual framework and empirical tools to assist land-use decisions by linking ecological data—such as carbon sequestration and nutrient cycling—with the livelihoods of social actors. Initial work includes case studies in Alaska, Costa Rica, Brazil, Bolivia, and Argentina, focusing on measuring functional trait values of dominant species and conducting social surveys to identify ecosystem services.

The project investigates the trade-offs between agricultural expansion and ecosystem services in the Rio de la Plata Basin, finding that crop expansion has significantly reduced soil carbon and that certain afforestation efforts have negatively impacted regional hydrology and water yield.

The IAI Strategic Plan (2010) establishes a framework for addressing global environmental change in the Americas through interdisciplinary research, regional networking, and science-policy dialogue. The plan emphasizes a shift toward 'needs-driven' science that integrates natural and social sciences to address vulnerability, adaptation, and mitigation. Key goals include enhancing capacity building for young scientists, promoting equitable access to research tools across the continent, and implementing adaptive management to respond to rapid environmental changes. The IAI aims to serve as an interface between the scientific community and decision-makers to support evidence-based policy and sustainable development, particularly for populations in developing countries most vulnerable to environmental risks.

The tropical Andes are a global biodiversity hotspot with high levels of endemism, particularly in cloud forests and high-altitude ecosystems. Climate change, characterized by rising temperatures and altered precipitation patterns, threatens these species, especially those at high altitudes with limited migration options. The document emphasizes that anthropogenic habitat fragmentation exacerbates these risks, potentially leading to mass extinctions. It advocates for adaptive management, the creation of connected conservation areas with broad environmental gradients, and the integration of ecosystem services into policy. Significant knowledge gaps remain in taxonomy and regional climate modeling, and the region faces institutional challenges including limited funding and a 'brain drain' of scientists.

The fact sheet examines the relationship between agricultural land use and groundwater management in the Pampas region of Argentina. It argues that the shift from perennial alfalfa pastures to annual rotations of soy, wheat, and corn has increased flooding frequency due to lower transpiration rates. The document suggests that implementing cover crops or water-tolerant pastures can reduce flood events and increase the number of years suitable for production by 40%.

Brazil possesses a relatively low-carbon energy matrix, but its overall greenhouse gas emissions are dominated by agriculture and deforestation. While deforestation rates have declined, rapid economic growth, increasing energy demand, and the discovery of pre-salt offshore oil fields threaten to increase energy-related emissions. Domestically, climate policy is shifting from a foreign relations issue to a central political topic, with sub-national initiatives—particularly in São Paulo—pushing for more ambitious absolute targets. Internationally, Brazil positions itself as a broker between BASIC countries and Annex I nations, emphasizing its leadership in biofuels and REDD while maintaining a commitment to the sovereign right to development.

The authors propose a two-fold linkage between forests and climate adaptation: using forest ecosystem services to reduce social vulnerability ('forests for adaptation') and implementing measures to protect forests from climate impacts ('adaptation for forests'). They advocate for Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA) as an overarching framework to integrate these goals, noting that ecological infrastructure is often more cost-effective and adaptive than engineered alternatives. The paper highlights the need for cross-sectoral governance, financial transfers like payments for ecosystem services, and the integration of mitigation policies such as REDD+ to avoid maladaptation and ensure long-term resilience.

The author contends that current decision-making is 'hard-wired' to historical climate averages and relies on reactive disaster response, which is insufficient for the scale and uncertainty of climate change. Using examples like paddy farming in Indonesia and the 2005 Mumbai floods, the paper illustrates how reliance on 'normalcy' bandwidths and outdated infrastructure creates vulnerability. The author proposes a transition to anticipatory risk management based on a better understanding of risk thresholds, politically-mediated determinations of 'acceptable' resiliency levels, and an integrated approach that considers non-climate shocks such as population growth.

The report examines the technical, financial, and institutional challenges of implementing REDD, focusing on the definitions of 'forest', funding mechanisms, and measurement, reporting, and verification (MRV) systems.

The report analyzes the disconnect between farm-level 'means-based' indicators (which measure compliance with practices) and higher-scale 'impact' indicators (which measure ecosystem health). It argues that the current proliferation of uncoordinated metric initiatives leads to information overload and a lack of comparability. The authors advocate for a 'key impact approach'—focusing on a small set of strategic indicators—and the use of conceptual frameworks like DPSIR to bridge the gap between individual farm activities and landscape or national outcomes. Key recommendations include standardizing terminology, developing open data platforms, and adopting an evolutionary, stepwise approach to measurement.

The report details a systemic failure of governance in Ketapang District, West Kalimantan, where oil palm expansion—driven by EU biofuel targets—has led to widespread illegal land clearing, deforestation of protected forests, and severe social conflicts. It highlights that the Ketapang government issued permits for approximately 40% of the district's land in just three years, often bypassing legal requirements for Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs) and forestland release approvals. The document argues that voluntary certification schemes like the RSPO and the EU's Renewable Energy Directive (RED) are insufficient to prevent these abuses, as they lack rigorous legality checks and fail to address 'replacement effects' where certified oil is diverted to energy, pushing the food sector toward unsustainable sources. Socially, the expansion has resulted in land grabs from indigenous communities and precarious labor conditions, including the non-payment of smallholders and chemical poisoning of workers.

In 2005, total global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions were estimated at 44,153 MtCO2 equivalent, representing a 12.7% increase from 2000. The energy sector, specifically electricity, heat, and transportation, drove much of this growth, with developing countries accounting for the majority of emissions in electricity, heat, and industry. While high global warming potential gases grew by 44% between 2000 and 2005, they remain a small percentage of total emissions. Notably, revised methodologies for calculating land-use change reduced its estimated share of total GHGs from 18.2% to 12.2%, although actual emissions from this sector grew by 4.1% during the period.

The IAI's 2009/10 program focuses on synthesizing transdisciplinary research from Collaborative Research Networks and Human Dimensions projects, managing specific projects on biofuels in the La Plata Basin and biodiversity in the Andes, and organizing science-policy forums in Ecuador and Chile. The institute also aims to finalize its strategic plan and engage with the UNFCCC SBSTA on adaptation and mitigation related to biofuels and land quality.

The IAI's core budget request for FY 2009/2010 is US$1,163,117, a level similar to the previous year. The budget supports the management of the CRN II and SGP-HD programs, interdisciplinary training institutes, and the MacArthur Foundation-funded project on Andean biodiversity. Key financial allocations include US$777,477 for salaries and benefits and US$74,510 for travel. The budget is funded by contributions from member countries, with the United States providing the largest share at US$691,000.

The report challenges the promotion of jatropha as a 'wonder crop' for biofuels, using evidence from Swaziland to argue that it may compete with food production, require significant water and chemical inputs, and offer marginal economic benefits to small-scale farmers. It highlights concerns over unfair contracting practices by D1 Oils and the lack of environmental risk assessments, concluding that jatropha is not a sustainable 'silver bullet' for meeting EU and UK biofuel targets.