Shifting ground: Brazil tackles climate change and deforestation, but rapid growth, energy needs undermine progress

This 2010 policy brief by the Stockholm Environment Institute examines Brazil's climate change strategy, noting a transition from treating the issue as an international relations matter to a central domestic political priority. While Brazil possesses a low-carbon energy matrix and has reduced deforestation, rapid economic growth and the discovery of pre-salt oil reserves threaten to increase energy-related emissions.

• Brazil's greenhouse gas emissions profile is dominated by land-use and agriculture rather than energy. In 2005, 83 per cent of its GHG emissions came from agriculture, land-use change and forest management. If agriculture is included, Brazil is the world's fourth largest GHG emitter, but without LULUCF, per capita emissions drop from 12 tCO2 to 5 tCO2.
• Brazil has a comparatively clean energy system, with over 45 per cent of primary energy coming from renewables (31.5 per cent biomass and 13.8 per cent hydropower). In 2009, 84 per cent of its power was produced in hydroelectric plants, and over 90 per cent of new light vehicles are 'flex fuel', capable of running on ethanol or petrol.
• Several factors are increasing the carbon intensity of Brazil's energy matrix, including economic growth expected to exceed 7 per cent in 2010, a projected tripling of energy demand by 2030, and the discovery of the pre-salt offshore oil fields, which may be the world's second-largest oil reserve.
• The Brazilian government has implemented the Plano Nacional de Mudanças Climáticas, which sets voluntary reduction targets of 34.1 to 38.9 per cent below business-as-usual levels by 2020 and aims to reduce Amazon deforestation by 72 per cent by 2017.
• Sub-national initiatives are pressuring the federal government to adopt more ambitious targets. The State of São Paulo adopted a law in 2009 requiring a 20 per cent reduction of GHG emissions by 2020 from 2005 levels, using an absolute target rather than a business-as-usual scenario.
• Brazil's international climate diplomacy emphasizes 'common but differentiated responsibilities', opposing binding targets for non-Annex I countries while promoting the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and REDD. It also seeks to export its sugar cane-based ethanol technology.
• Within the BASIC group, Brazil is considered the 'odd party' due to its unique emissions profile and priorities, particularly its focus on deforestation and land-use, which may create challenges for unity within the group.

APA

Román, M., & Carson, M. (2010). Shifting ground: Brazil tackles climate change and deforestation, but rapid growth, energy needs undermine progress. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-PolicyBrief-ShiftingGroundBrazil-2010.pdf

Chicago

Román, Mikael, and Marcus Carson. Shifting ground: Brazil tackles climate change and deforestation, but rapid growth, energy needs undermine progress. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2010. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-PolicyBrief-ShiftingGroundBrazil-2010.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Román |first1=Mikael |last2=Carson |first2=Marcus |title=Shifting ground: Brazil tackles climate change and deforestation, but rapid growth, energy needs undermine progress |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=2010 |url=https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-PolicyBrief-ShiftingGroundBrazil-2010.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{romn2010shifting, author = {Román, Mikael and Carson, Marcus}, title = {{Shifting ground: Brazil tackles climate change and deforestation, but rapid growth, energy needs undermine progress}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2010}, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-PolicyBrief-ShiftingGroundBrazil-2010.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }