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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES
The document forecasts that the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario would significantly increase sub-Saharan Africa's GDP per capita to US$9,798 by 2043, compared to US$5,980 in the Current Path. It predicts a substantial reduction in extreme poverty to 7.3% and a nearly doubled total economy of US$12,295.2 billion. However, this growth is associated with higher carbon emissions, reaching 892 million tons by 2043.
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Document type: Research paper
BENIN DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES
The report projects that the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario would significantly increase Benin's GDP per capita to US$7,421 and nearly double the overall economy to US$117.2 billion by 2043. While this path would lift an additional 4.6 million people out of extreme poverty and drive structural transformation toward services and manufacturing, it is also projected to increase carbon emissions to 10.1 million tons, necessitating an accelerated energy transition to mitigate environmental degradation.
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Document type: Report
ECCAS: Conclusion
The report concludes that ECCAS faces deep-rooted structural challenges in agriculture, manufacturing, and electrification that hinder its development. It argues that without aggressive interventions in sectors like renewable energy, infrastructure, and economic diversification, the region will fail to meet its 2043 inclusive development targets.
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Document type: Report
The Impact of Slavery and Colonialism
The document argues that the combined effects of various slave trades and subsequent European colonialism fundamentally altered African agriculture. It details how the loss of productive labour and the imposition of export-oriented crop systems undermined domestic food security and regional trade.
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Document type: Research paper
The Manufacturing Sector in Africa
The document examines the diverse nature of Africa's manufacturing sector, noting that most countries remain outliers with low manufacturing shares of GDP. It highlights a trend of 'premature deindustrialization' in low-income countries and the significant role of Chinese private enterprises in meeting domestic demand. While most of the continent relies on raw material exports, a few countries like Eswatini and South Africa show higher industrial competitiveness.
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Document type: Research paper
Reasons for Africa’s Under-Industrialisation
The report identifies a complex web of barriers to industrialisation in Africa, including colonial legacies of extractive industries, chronic infrastructure deficits in power and transport, and a lack of skilled technical labour. It highlights how policy inconsistencies and limited access to affordable long-term finance have hindered growth, while noting that global competition from Asia and the rise of automation challenge the traditional low-wage labour advantage. However, it points to opportunities arising from 'China+1' diversification strategies and the potential of the AfCFTA to reduce internal trade costs.
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Document type: Report
The AfCFTA Conclusion: Advancing Africa’s trade
The document examines the necessity of the AfCFTA for overcoming Africa's fragmented markets and limited intra-continental trade. It highlights that success depends on regional value chains, infrastructure investment, and the removal of non-tariff barriers. The authors emphasize that while the AfCFTA is crucial for long-term growth, national governments must manage the short-term political and economic pain of tariff losses and address the challenges of integrating unequal economies.
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Document type: Research paper
AGENDA 2063: THEMATIC FUTURES
The document outlines a projected shift in Africa's labour market from 2023 to 2043, where a 'Combined scenario' envisions a significant decrease in informal employment from 58% to 40%. This transition is expected to be driven by a resurgence in manufacturing, digital innovation, and targeted investments in infrastructure and skills, leading to improved social protection and government revenue.
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Document type: Research paper
Five things we’ll be watching at the 2026 Mining Indaba
The briefing identifies critical areas of focus for the 2026 Mining Indaba, specifically the impact of US, EU, and Chinese geopolitics on critical minerals, the struggle to establish domestic mineral value chains in Africa, the role of transport infrastructure like the Lobito Corridor, the viability of regional battery value chains between the DRC and Zambia, and the potential for engagement between the main event and the civil society-led Alternative Mining Indaba.
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Document type: Briefing
Climate Bonds’ Resilience Taxonomy
The Climate Bonds’ Resilience Taxonomy (CBRT) is a classification system designed to help infrastructure issuers identify and certify investments that enhance climate resilience. It covers over 1,400 investments across seven themes, including health, agri-food, and energy systems. The taxonomy employs a tiered eligibility framework requiring a 'substantial contribution to resilience', 'no maladaptation risk', and 'Do No Significant Harm (DNSH)' to other sustainability goals. Investments are categorized as whitelisted (automatically aligned), subject to technical specifications (binary pass/fail checks), or requiring a process-based approach for flexible placeholders. The guide outlines two primary use cases: developing a project pipeline by filtering for material climate hazards and mapping existing projects to verify eligibility for thematic bonds. Currently in an interim phase, the CBRT is designed for interoperability with the EU Taxonomy, the MDB joint methodology, and the LAC Common Framework.
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Document type: Guide
Tanzania and China: China–Africa Policy Signals, Substance and Suggestions
The document examines the evolving relationship between Tanzania and China, highlighting Tanzania's role as a 'first-mover' in several strategic initiatives. Central to the analysis is the December 2024 establishment of the Tanzania Investment Centre China (Hunan) Investment Cooperation Platform, which is anchored in the 'Hunan Model'—a Chinese strategy to deepen Africa ties through trade exhibitions, industrial clusters, and agricultural 'green lanes'. The author argues that Tanzania's unique position as a founding member of both the East African Community (EAC) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC), combined with its historical ties to China, allows it to shape cross-regional economic policy in Africa. The briefing also details other key collaborations, such as the Tazara Railway and the Mwalimu Julius Nyerere Leadership School, and provides policy suggestions to ensure the Hunan Model serves African development interests.
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Document type: Briefing
Achieving Indonesia’s vision to expand and enhance active mobility in its cities
The document outlines the challenges and opportunities for expanding non-motorized transport in Indonesian cities to address road congestion, air pollution, and health issues. Using Medan as a case study, it identifies fragmented infrastructure and systemic barriers—including inefficient budgeting and weak regulation enforcement—that hinder the goals of the National Vision of Non-Motorized Transport Infrastructure. It argues that a coordinated approach involving infrastructure upgrades, policy enforcement, and financial incentives is necessary to achieve sustainable, inclusive, and low-carbon urban mobility.
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Document type: Policy brief
A Amazônia no Novo PAC: Recomendações para Impulsionar a Infraestrutura Sustentável
The report analyzes the Novo PAC's impact on the Amazon, arguing that the program lacks regional planning and fails to account for the area's socio-environmental complexity. It highlights contradictions between infrastructure projects and deforestation goals, such as the Ferrogrão railway and BR-319 paving, and criticizes the continued use of fossil fuels in energy projects. The authors recommend a comprehensive regional development plan, better alignment with the PPCDAm's zero-deforestation target, and a shift toward renewable energy and distributed generation.
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Document type: Report
The Role of Multilateral Development Banks for Low-Carbon Procurement in the Infrastructure Sector
The report argues that multilateral development banks (MDBs) are critical for shifting the infrastructure sector—which accounts for 79% of global greenhouse gas emissions—toward low-carbon practices. While MDBs are increasingly integrating sustainability into procurement policies, they face obstacles such as the limited capacity of borrowing countries and varying market readiness. The document recommends that MDBs expand capacity-building, improve monitoring systems, and facilitate technology transfer to accelerate the decarbonization of global supply chains.
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Document type: Report
Gender and Climate Change Action Plan of the Republic of Haiti
The Gender and Climate Change Action Plan of the Republic of Haiti outlines a framework to integrate gender-responsive institutional arrangements and projects into national climate adaptation. It identifies four priority areas: capacity building, awareness raising, gender-sensitive budgeting, and the establishment of a monitoring and evaluation framework. The plan includes 11 priority activities, with six categorized as imperative, and estimates a total funding requirement of USD 1,650,000 for 2025–2030.
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Document type: Report
Plan d’action genre et adaptation aux changements climatiques de la république d’Haïti
The Republic of Haiti's Gender and Climate Change Adaptation Action Plan aims to operationalize gender equality within its National Adaptation Plan (NAP) by 2030. The plan identifies four priority areas: knowledge management and capacity building, awareness and communication, gender-responsive budgeting, and a monitoring, evaluation, and learning framework. It outlines 11 priority activities, including training for gender focal points and the introduction of gender-sensitive budget lines. The total estimated cost for implementation from 2025 to 2030 is $1,650,000 USD, to be funded through national budgets and international climate funds such as the Green Climate Fund and the Adaptation Fund.
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Document type: Report
Story Spark: Flooding
The document offers a framework for reporting on flooding, emphasizing the need to connect local events to the broader climate context, avoid misleading probabilistic language like '100-year flood', and focus on personal impacts and hyperlocal infrastructure. It provides a curated list of reporting examples from various US regions and links to data tools from agencies like NOAA and FEMA.
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Document type: Guide
Una idea para tus historias: Inundaciones
The guide advises journalists to contextualize floods within the broader framework of climate change, noting that a warmer atmosphere retains more moisture, leading to more frequent and intense extreme precipitation globally. It recommends avoiding probabilistic terms like "100-year flood" in favor of simple superlatives and suggests focusing on personal impacts and hyper-local infrastructure to make stories more relevant. The document also provides a curated list of mapping tools and data sources, such as NOAA, FEMA, and World Weather Attribution, to assist in reporting on flood risks and attribution.
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Document type: Guide
Mineral Policy Review: Findings and Recommendations Report
The report finds that South Africa's mining sector is in a state of economic decline, with its share of real GDP falling from 11.1% in 1993 to 4.8% in 2023. It argues that the MPRDA has failed to facilitate growth or efficient regulation, contributing to a 'dried up' project pipeline and a global exploration expenditure share that has stagnated below 1% since 2020. Key constraints include institutional capacity gaps at the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE), infrastructure failures in electricity and logistics, and a profound trust deficit between government, industry, and host communities. The report recommends urgent amendments to the MPRDA to address regulatory uncertainties, the formalisation of artisanal and small-scale mining, and the adoption of a new, multi-stakeholder vision for the industry to restore investor confidence.
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Document type: Report
Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for the Bibiani-Anhwiaso-Bekwai Municipal Assembly
The assessment identifies the Awaso Zonal Council as the most vulnerable area in the Bibiani-Anhwiaso-Bekwai municipality due to high exposure to bushfires and droughts, combined with high sensitivity in agriculture and infrastructure. Agriculture and human health are ranked as the most vulnerable sectors, with rainfall variability and rising temperatures threatening crop yields and increasing disease prevalence. Projections indicate annual rainfall will increase to 1678 mm by 2050, while both day and night temperatures are expected to rise by 1°C by mid-century. The report recommends policy interventions including livelihood diversification, the construction of feeder roads, the implementation of early warning systems, and the promotion of climate-smart agriculture and irrigation.
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Document type: Report