Five things we’ll be watching at the 2026 Mining Indaba

The briefing identifies critical areas of focus for the 2026 Mining Indaba, specifically the impact of US, EU, and Chinese geopolitics on critical minerals, the struggle to establish domestic mineral value chains in Africa, the role of transport infrastructure like the Lobito Corridor, the viability of regional battery value chains between the DRC and Zambia, and the potential for engagement between the main event and the civil society-led Alternative Mining Indaba.

• Geopolitical competition between the US, EU, India, and Saudi Arabia to reduce dependence on Chinese mineral supply chains is intensifying, with the US launching 'Project Vault' to build strategic stockpiles and promote domestic processing. SAIIA research indicates that the critical minerals debate is often "dominated by the needs and priorities of external actors" rather than African development plans.
• Efforts to move beyond raw mineral exports toward domestic industrialisation face significant barriers, including inadequate energy supplies and unfair risk assessments by credit rating agencies. While some Chinese firms in Zimbabwe built their own power plants to bypass energy shortages, other facilities, such as the Mozal aluminium smelter in Mozambique, face potential closure due to energy pricing.
• Major infrastructure projects are being used as tools for geopolitical influence, such as the US- and EU-backed Lobito Corridor connecting the DRC and Zambia to Angola, and China's upgrading of the TAZARA railway to Dar es Salaam. There is concern that these projects may function primarily as "funnels for mineral exports" rather than supporting domestic processing.
• Regional cooperation is viewed as the only way for Africa to compete with China's economies of scale, yet initiatives like the Zambia–DRC regional battery value chain have "lost momentum recently" due to national pressures to retain resources and jobs locally.
• A divide persists between the investment-focused Mining Indaba and the civil society-led Alternative Mining Indaba, though the main event has recently introduced a "Communities Interactive Workshop" and free registration for communities to increase participation.

APA

South African Institute of International Affairs (2026). Five things we’ll be watching at the 2026 Mining Indaba. https://saiia.org.za/research/five-things-well-be-watching-at-the-2026-mining-indaba/

Chicago

South African Institute of International Affairs. Five things we’ll be watching at the 2026 Mining Indaba. 2026. https://saiia.org.za/research/five-things-well-be-watching-at-the-2026-mining-indaba/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=South African Institute of International Affairs |title=Five things we’ll be watching at the 2026 Mining Indaba |date=6 February 2026 |url=https://saiia.org.za/research/five-things-well-be-watching-at-the-2026-mining-indaba/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{southafricaninstituteofinternationalaffairs2026five, author = {{South African Institute of International Affairs}}, title = {{Five things we’ll be watching at the 2026 Mining Indaba}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2026}, month = feb, url = {https://saiia.org.za/research/five-things-well-be-watching-at-the-2026-mining-indaba/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }