Five things we’ll be watching at the 2026 Mining Indaba

This briefing by the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) outlines five critical themes and questions the organization will monitor during the 2026 Investing in Africa Mining Indaba in Cape Town. The document focuses on the intersection of geopolitics, industrialization, infrastructure, regional cooperation, and the role of civil society in Africa's mineral sector.

• Geopolitical competition for Africa's critical minerals is intensifying, with the US launching 'Project Vault' to build strategic stockpiles and promote domestic processing, while the EU has implemented the Critical Raw Materials Act and the RESourceEU Action Plan. SAIIA research indicates that the critical minerals discourse is often "dominated by the needs and priorities of external actors" rather than the development plans of African policymakers.
• Africa faces significant barriers to moving beyond the export of raw minerals toward domestic value addition, including inadequate energy supplies and perceived high business risks. To address these, new initiatives are emerging, such as the Africa Credit Rating Agency and the Africa Investment Guarantee Agency. Energy constraints remain a critical hurdle, exemplified by the potential closure of the Mozal aluminium smelter in Mozambique and risks to South African smelters.
• Major infrastructure projects are being promoted as commitments to Africa, such as the US- and EU-backed Lobito Corridor (connecting the DRC and Zambia to Angola) and China's upgrading of the TAZARA railway line to Dar es Salaam. Other notable projects include the Kano–Maradi Railway and the TransGuinean Railway Corridor in West Africa, though there are concerns regarding whether these serve as "funnels for mineral exports" rather than supporting domestic processing.
• Regional value chains are seen as the primary way for Africa to compete with China's economies of scale, but national interests often hinder progress. A specific example is the Zambia–DRC agreement to develop a regional battery value chain, which has reportedly "lost momentum recently" due to disputes over the location of factories and energy supply.
• There is a persistent divide between the business-focused Mining Indaba and the civil society-led Alternative Mining Indaba. While the main event has introduced a 'Communities Interactive Workshop' and free registration for communities to increase inclusivity, the process for approving civil society applications remains "opaque".

APA

South African Institute of International Affairs (2026). Five things we’ll be watching at the 2026 Mining Indaba. https://saiia.org.za/research/five-things-well-be-watching-at-the-2026-mining-indaba/

Chicago

South African Institute of International Affairs. Five things we’ll be watching at the 2026 Mining Indaba. 2026. https://saiia.org.za/research/five-things-well-be-watching-at-the-2026-mining-indaba/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=South African Institute of International Affairs |title=Five things we’ll be watching at the 2026 Mining Indaba |date=6 February 2026 |url=https://saiia.org.za/research/five-things-well-be-watching-at-the-2026-mining-indaba/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{southafricaninstituteofinternationalaffairs2026five, author = {{South African Institute of International Affairs}}, title = {{Five things we’ll be watching at the 2026 Mining Indaba}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2026}, month = feb, url = {https://saiia.org.za/research/five-things-well-be-watching-at-the-2026-mining-indaba/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }