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The report argues that maintaining secure maritime food trade is a US national security imperative, as disruptions to key chokepoints—specifically the Suez Canal, Panama Canal, and Strait of Malacca—can trigger cascading global risks. Using a strategic foresight approach, the authors analyze four scenarios based on the uncertainty of international cooperation and port infrastructure resilience. They find that climate stressors, such as a projected global warming increase of over 2°C by 2040, threaten agricultural productivity and port operability. These vulnerabilities can be exploited by hostile actors, such as Al-Shabaab in Somalia, to weaponize food and destabilize regions. The report recommends that the US incorporate maritime food trade resilience into its National Security Strategy, invest in climate-resilient infrastructure, and revitalize flexible development assistance to prevent the erosion of soft power and protect military supply chains.

The report examines the risks associated with the renewed interest in tactical nuclear weapons (TNW) among global powers. It details three plausible use scenarios—targeting facilities, military forces in the field, or demonstration shots—and models the direct physical effects of a 20-kiloton blast. The authors argue that TNW use would trigger unpredictable international crises, erode the long-standing norm of nuclear non-use, and potentially lead to uncontrolled escalation. The paper recommends reinforcing the non-use norm and implementing risk-reduction measures to prevent the normalization of nuclear warfighting.

The report examines how AI accelerates biological research, creating a 'dual-use dilemma' where tools for medical advancement can be repurposed for bioweapons. It analyzes the 'risk chain' of biological weapon development, the capabilities of foundation models and biological design tools (BDTs), and the geopolitical landscape involving the US, China, and Russia. The document proposes a 'preferred' 2030 scenario characterized by geopolitical stability and responsible AI development, offering specific US policy recommendations across biosecurity foundations, technical governance, and international diplomacy.

The report examines economic and societal trends affecting Germany's material prosperity and climate protection, utilizing mini-scenarios to 2040 to identify necessary actions for policymakers and experts.

The document argues that SADC must transition from reactive to anticipatory skills governance to address critical gaps in access, relevance, and applicability. It advocates for the integration of 'skills foresight' and 'systemic innovation' to prepare the region's workforce for green and digital economies, emphasizing the need for regional accreditation systems and updated curricula that include systems and futures literacy.

The report argues that ecological disruption is an underappreciated security threat and advocates for the integration of strategic foresight tools—such as horizon scanning, futures wheels, and scenario planning—into national security architecture. It identifies land/sea-use change and global atmospheric/oceanic warming as the primary drivers of ecological instability. Through four plausible mid-century scenarios, the document illustrates how these drivers can lead to systemic collapses, such as Amazon dieback or the failure of the Lake Victoria Basin, resulting in famine, pandemics, and geopolitical conflict. The author recommends that security stakeholders shift their risk calculus to include ecological decline and prioritize locally-led, indigenous stewardship in resource management.

The policy brief argues that the African mining sector is hindered by political and institutional lock-ins, specifically the slow ratification of AMDC statutes. It proposes integrating strategic foresight—a systematic approach to anticipating future trends—into the AMDC's four-pillar mandate to move from reactive to proactive governance. The authors advocate for a 'foresight-led social contract' to ensure mineral wealth benefits local communities and supports the green energy transition. Key recommendations include establishing an anticipatory governance unit, reforming financial architectures to reduce debt dependency, and coordinating regional responses to transnational risks such as deep-sea mining and Global North competition.

The paper examines the tension between SADC's economic-driven digital agenda and the protection of fundamental human rights. It identifies systemic threats including state-sanctioned internet shutdowns, surveillance, and algorithmic bias, while analyzing the influence of digital geopolitics involving the US, China, and the EU. The authors advocate for the recognition of the 'right to Internet access' and the adoption of 'data justice' frameworks to ensure an inclusive digital future by 2035.

The document proposes a shift in South Africa's Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) ecosystem from a jobs-centric approach to one based on 'economic wellbeing,' which includes dignified labour, household care, ecosystem provisioning, and state infrastructure. To support the green hydrogen (GH2) economy, it recommends establishing a skills governance working group, creating green economy skills incubator hubs for experimentation, and adopting innovative financing like social and development impact bonds. Additionally, it advocates for a Universal Basic Dividend (UBD) funded by GH2 project profits to redistribute wealth from common resources and ensure a just energy transition, addressing historical land ownership disparities.

The document proposes a shift in South Africa's TVET sector from a jobs-centric model to a 'wellbeing economy' framework to support the emerging green hydrogen (GH2) sector. It advocates for 'skills governance'—integrating foresight, planning, and anticipation—to address unemployment and inequality. Key recommendations include establishing a skills governance working group, creating green economy skills incubator hubs, adopting innovative financing like social impact bonds, and implementing a Universal Basic Dividend (UBD) to redistribute wealth from common resources used in GH2 projects.

The document identifies a critical gap between the technical vocational skills provided by South Africa's TVET sector and the requirements of the emerging green hydrogen economy. It critiques the current reliance on quantitative, top-down skills planning and proposes 'skills foresight' (SF)—a participatory approach that imagines multiple futures—to enhance systemic agility. The authors recommend establishing a dedicated foresight team within the Department of Higher Education and Training (DHET), creating a Cross-Sectoral TVET Advisory Board for Green Transversal Skills, and initiating participatory futures dialogues to co-create a new social compact for education that reduces the perceived inferiority of TVET qualifications compared to university degrees.

The research examines the drivers, barriers, and 'seeds' of circular economy (CE) practices within the SADC region, arguing for a contextually sensitive approach that moves beyond Global North narratives. It identifies critical drivers such as rapid urbanisation, e-waste challenges, and climate change, while highlighting systemic barriers including lack of uniform regulatory frameworks and knowledge disparities. The authors propose a multi-level resource use system that integrates indigenous solutions with disruptive technologies and recommends regional collaboration through the SADC Secretariat and AU to harmonise CE strategic frameworks, fiscal policies, and educational curricula.

The report explores South Africa's energy transition through 2050, emphasizing the need to move beyond 'used futures' and growth-centric economic models. It identifies critical innovations in governance, technology, and social values, while proposing six alternative framings—ranging from ecomodernism to the 'great simplification'—to inform policy. The analysis highlights high-impact uncertainties such as a severe skills shortage for the decarbonized economy and the 'carbon trap' of meeting rising energy demands while reducing emissions. It concludes with four diverse scenarios for 2050 and recommends a shift toward regenerative economies and inclusive multilateralism.

The document argues that South Africa must move away from 'used energy futures' and growth-centric economic models to achieve a just energy transition. It proposes four strategic priorities: fostering cross-border sustainable energy democracies, practicing active non-alignment in renewable energy diplomacy, challenging preconceived energy futures to ensure intergenerational fairness, and implementing anticipatory energy governance to overcome 'energy blindness' and carbon lock-in. The brief emphasizes the need for a multipolar approach to energy geopolitics in the post-COVID-19 era, advocating for regional integration within the SADC and the adoption of regenerative economic models.

The report analyzes how the shift toward a multipolar world, the EU Green Deal, US energy strategies, and China's dominance in critical minerals impact South Africa. It highlights the contradictions in European energy policy following the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the paradoxical nature of China's green energy support versus its fossil fuel investments in Africa. The authors argue that South Africa should adopt a strategy of 'active non-alignment,' diversify its critical mineral supply chains, and foster domestic innovation to achieve energy sovereignty and a just transition.

The document advocates for a shift from extractive-centered development to 'anticipatory governance' for critical minerals in the SADC region. It proposes transitioning to a 'Resource Balanced Economy' (RBE) that accounts for energy constraints and resource flows, rather than relying on traditional linear or circular economy models. The brief emphasizes the need for a new social contract to protect workers against automation, financial innovations to reduce risk ratings and currency devaluation, and a 'bioregional' approach to value chains to prevent regional fragmentation and ensure fair benefit distribution among member states.

The report details a scenario exercise where experts simulated the collapse of ecosystems in a fictional Southeast Asian state to explore the resulting security risks. The exercise demonstrated a feedback loop where ecological failure—specifically the collapse of fisheries and agriculture—triggered food insecurity, mass migration, and internal conflict. This instability led to a political shift from a semi-democratic system to an authoritarian state, as ruling elites prioritized self-preservation and stability over ecological restoration. The findings suggest that preventing ecological disruption is significantly more effective than attempting restoration during a security crisis, and the report recommends integrating ecological security into global security frameworks and investing in early governance stability.

The report details a scenario exercise involving a fictional Southeast Asian state, Khomland, to explore the security implications of ecological collapse. The simulation demonstrates a feedback loop where ecosystem degradation—specifically the collapse of fisheries and agriculture—drives food insecurity and mass migration, which in turn fuels political conflict and the consolidation of authoritarian power. Key findings highlight that restoration is significantly more difficult than prevention and that political elites often weaponize crisis management to maintain power. The document concludes with recommendations for international and regional bodies to prioritize ecological security, invest in governance stability, and deploy nature-based solutions to build societal resilience.

The report analyzes the critical minerals ecosystem in the SADC region, emphasizing the need to move beyond 'used futures'—historical patterns of colonial extraction and corruption—toward a sustainable transition. It identifies key driving forces across social, technological, economic, environmental, political, and values (STEEP-V) dimensions, such as the risk of 'resource curse' and geopolitical competition between China, the US, and the EU. Through stakeholder workshops, the authors develop four potential scenarios for 2035, ranging from 'Dawn of Empowered Transformation' to 'Shadows of Exploitation'. The document advocates for anticipatory governance, regional collaboration, and a shift toward circular economy principles to ensure that the green energy transition benefits local communities and the environment rather than perpetuating historical inequalities.

The report critiques the current linear economy and the limitations of the conventional circular economy, proposing instead a 'resource-balanced economy' (RBE) for the SADC region. It argues that the green transition's demand for critical minerals is underestimated and faces thermodynamic and material constraints. To avoid 'financial capture' and poverty traps, the authors advocate for 'anticipatory governance'—a proactive, systems-based approach to policymaking—alongside bioregionalism, re-localisation, and the renegotiation of resource trade agreements to ensure equitable and sustainable development.