The Geopolitics of Energy in the Post-COVID-19 Era

The report analyzes how the shift toward a multipolar world, the EU Green Deal, US energy strategies, and China's dominance in critical minerals impact South Africa. It highlights the contradictions in European energy policy following the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the paradoxical nature of China's green energy support versus its fossil fuel investments in Africa. The authors argue that South Africa should adopt a strategy of 'active non-alignment,' diversify its critical mineral supply chains, and foster domestic innovation to achieve energy sovereignty and a just transition.

• China maintains a dominant position in the global processing of critical minerals essential for the energy transition, refining 73% of cobalt, 40% of copper, 59% of lithium, and 68% of nickel.
• The EU Green Deal's focus on decarbonization and renewable energy creates a risk of reinforcing technological dependencies for Africa and potentially accelerating environmental damage.
• The Russia-Ukraine conflict led to a short-term increase in European coal imports from South Africa, which has strengthened domestic coal-vested interests and hindered efforts to reduce emissions.
• China's engagement with Africa is described as paradoxical; while it expresses support for green transitions, it has historically provided significant loans for fossil fuel projects, including $6 billion for coal and $18 billion for oil between 2000 and 2021.
• The US is repositioning itself in the global energy market through the Inflation Reduction Act, which uses tax exemptions and financial support to target a net-zero grid by 2035.
• South Africa's relationship with the EU is characterized as asymmetrical, with power imbalances and divergent priorities regarding green recovery and development.
• The report recommends that South Africa adopt 'active non-alignment' to maintain strategic autonomy and avoid entanglement in great-power rivalries.
• To achieve energy sovereignty, South Africa must diversify its critical mineral supply chains beyond China and invest in domestic mining, refining, and R&D.

APA

CLOETE, D., JENTEL, L., WOLF, N., MZINYATI, L., DU PLESSIS, L., SIDIROPOULOS, E., SWILLING, M., JACOB, M. R., MCCALLUM, W., & RICHARDS, N. (2023). The Geopolitics of Energy in the Post-COVID-19 Era. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/SAIIA_SR-2_GeopoliticsofEnergy.pdf

Chicago

CLOETE, DEON, LETITIA JENTEL, NDEAPO WOLF, LITHA MZINYATI, LUNÉ DU PLESSIS, ELIZABETH SIDIROPOULOS, MARK SWILLING, et al. The Geopolitics of Energy in the Post-COVID-19 Era. South African Institute of International Affairs, 2023. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/SAIIA_SR-2_GeopoliticsofEnergy.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=CLOETE |first1=DEON |last2=JENTEL |first2=LETITIA |last3=WOLF |first3=NDEAPO |last4=MZINYATI |first4=LITHA |last5=DU PLESSIS |first5=LUNÉ |last6=SIDIROPOULOS |first6=ELIZABETH |last7=SWILLING |first7=MARK |last8=JACOB |first8=MERIN RAJU |last9=MCCALLUM |first9=WENDY |display-authors=etal |title=The Geopolitics of Energy in the Post-COVID-19 Era |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=November 2023 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/SAIIA_SR-2_GeopoliticsofEnergy.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cloete2023geopolitics, author = {CLOETE, DEON and JENTEL, LETITIA and WOLF, NDEAPO and MZINYATI, LITHA and DU PLESSIS, LUNÉ and SIDIROPOULOS, ELIZABETH and SWILLING, MARK and JACOB, MERIN RAJU and MCCALLUM, WENDY and RICHARDS, NICHOLA}, title = {{The Geopolitics of Energy in the Post-COVID-19 Era}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2023}, month = nov, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/SAIIA_SR-2_GeopoliticsofEnergy.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }