Geopolitical Energy Futures in South Africa: Strategic Policy Pathways to 2035

This policy briefing outlines a strategic framework for South Africa to navigate the geopolitical energy transition by 2050. It advocates for a shift toward complex adaptive systems thinking and the adoption of four strategic priorities: fostering sustainable energy democracies, practicing active non-alignment in diplomacy, challenging 'used energy futures,' and implementing anticipatory energy governance to move beyond growth-centric economic models.

• South Africa should adopt a strategy of active non-alignment in international renewable energy diplomacy to protect its sovereignty and diversify its domestic energy ecosystem. This involves avoiding entanglement in external conflicts and diversifying partnerships across various geopolitical blocs to reduce reliance on any single ally.
• The document advocates for 'energy democracy' to ensure a just energy transition in South Africa. This requires restructuring the ownership of sustainable energy systems to include publicly owned utilities and community-owned entities, such as energy cooperatives, rather than relying solely on the private sector.
• Policymakers are urged to identify and challenge 'used energy futures'—preconceived, borrowed images of the future that may not fit the local context. In South Africa, these are manifested through a dependence on coal, corruption and instability, a lack of youth-targeted skills development, and an unfulfilled social contract regarding power supply.
• The briefing calls for a transition from growth-centric economic models to 'wellbeing economies' and the adoption of anticipatory energy governance. This includes addressing 'energy blindness'—the systemic lack of awareness regarding energy's role in economies—and developing regenerative economic models responsive to the geopolitical landscape by 2050.
• Regional collaboration within the Southern African Development Community (SADC) is presented as a priority. This includes developing a SADC-focused energy infrastructure that combines the centralised SADC Power Pool with decentralised community-owned mini-grids to ensure equitable energy access.
• The document argues that the post-COVID-19 era, combined with the Russia-Ukraine war and climate crisis, has ended the neoliberal era and necessitated a multipolar approach to energy geopolitics. It suggests that African nations must pursue digital sovereignty and redefine diplomatic approaches to address energy poverty.

APA

South African Institute of International Affairs (2023). Geopolitical Energy Futures in South Africa: Strategic Policy Pathways to 2035. https://saiia.org.za/research/geopolitical-energy-futures-in-south-africa-strategic-policy-pathways-to-2035/

Chicago

South African Institute of International Affairs. Geopolitical Energy Futures in South Africa: Strategic Policy Pathways to 2035. 2023. https://saiia.org.za/research/geopolitical-energy-futures-in-south-africa-strategic-policy-pathways-to-2035/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=South African Institute of International Affairs |title=Geopolitical Energy Futures in South Africa: Strategic Policy Pathways to 2035 |date=13 November 2023 |url=https://saiia.org.za/research/geopolitical-energy-futures-in-south-africa-strategic-policy-pathways-to-2035/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{southafricaninstituteofinternationalaffairs2023geopolitical, author = {{South African Institute of International Affairs}}, title = {{Geopolitical Energy Futures in South Africa: Strategic Policy Pathways to 2035}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2023}, month = nov, url = {https://saiia.org.za/research/geopolitical-energy-futures-in-south-africa-strategic-policy-pathways-to-2035/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }