Geopolitical Energy Futures in South Africa: Strategic Policy Pathways to 2035

The document argues that South Africa must move away from 'used energy futures' and growth-centric economic models to achieve a just energy transition. It proposes four strategic priorities: fostering cross-border sustainable energy democracies, practicing active non-alignment in renewable energy diplomacy, challenging preconceived energy futures to ensure intergenerational fairness, and implementing anticipatory energy governance to overcome 'energy blindness' and carbon lock-in. The brief emphasizes the need for a multipolar approach to energy geopolitics in the post-COVID-19 era, advocating for regional integration within the SADC and the adoption of regenerative economic models.

• South Africa should adopt a strategy of 'active non-alignment' in international renewable energy diplomacy to protect its sovereignty and diversify its domestic energy ecosystem, reducing reliance on any single geopolitical ally.
• The document advocates for 'energy democracy,' which involves shifting the ownership of sustainable energy systems from the private sector toward publicly owned utilities and community-owned entities like energy cooperatives to ensure equitable benefit distribution.
• Policymakers are urged to challenge 'used energy futures'—preconceived, borrowed visions of the future—which in South Africa manifest as a dependence on coal, corruption in governance, a lack of youth-targeted skills, and an unfulfilled social contract regarding power supply.
• The brief identifies 'energy blindness' as a systemic failure to recognize energy's vital role in economies and ecosystems, which has led to the unsustainable consumption of stored energy reserves (the 'carbon pulse').
• To achieve a post-carbon future by 2050, South Africa and SADC member states should transition from growth-centric economic models to 'wellbeing economies' and regenerative practices that prioritize human and non-human needs over profit.
• The document recommends the development of a SADC-focused energy infrastructure that combines the centralized SADC Power Pool with decentralized, community-owned mini-grids to ensure sustainable energy access across the region.

APA

South African Institute of International Affairs (2023). Geopolitical Energy Futures in South Africa: Strategic Policy Pathways to 2035. https://saiia.org.za/research/geopolitical-energy-futures-in-south-africa-strategic-policy-pathways-to-2035/

Chicago

South African Institute of International Affairs. Geopolitical Energy Futures in South Africa: Strategic Policy Pathways to 2035. 2023. https://saiia.org.za/research/geopolitical-energy-futures-in-south-africa-strategic-policy-pathways-to-2035/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=South African Institute of International Affairs |title=Geopolitical Energy Futures in South Africa: Strategic Policy Pathways to 2035 |date=13 November 2023 |url=https://saiia.org.za/research/geopolitical-energy-futures-in-south-africa-strategic-policy-pathways-to-2035/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{southafricaninstituteofinternationalaffairs2023geopolitical, author = {{South African Institute of International Affairs}}, title = {{Geopolitical Energy Futures in South Africa: Strategic Policy Pathways to 2035}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2023}, month = nov, url = {https://saiia.org.za/research/geopolitical-energy-futures-in-south-africa-strategic-policy-pathways-to-2035/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }