Re-imagining the Critical Minerals Ecosystem in SADC

The report critiques the current linear economy and the limitations of the conventional circular economy, proposing instead a 'resource-balanced economy' (RBE) for the SADC region. It argues that the green transition's demand for critical minerals is underestimated and faces thermodynamic and material constraints. To avoid 'financial capture' and poverty traps, the authors advocate for 'anticipatory governance'—a proactive, systems-based approach to policymaking—alongside bioregionalism, re-localisation, and the renegotiation of resource trade agreements to ensure equitable and sustainable development.

• The transition from fossil fuel-based industrial systems to non-fossil fuel systems is significantly more demanding than currently acknowledged, requiring an unprecedented volume of minerals and infrastructure that has not yet been manufactured.
• The conventional circular economy is insufficient as a total solution because it is not thermodynamically balanced and often fails to recover a large portion of materials, with up to 95% of some waste stream mass remaining uneconomical to process.
• The report proposes a 'resource-balanced economy' (RBE) for SADC, which seeks a symbiotic equilibrium between industrial activity, resource consumption, and ecological realities, moving away from a continuous growth-based model.
• Southern African countries are vulnerable to 'financial capture' and poverty traps due to Western financial valuation models that assign high risk to the region, leading to currency depreciation and limited foreign direct investment.
• The authors advocate for 'anticipatory governance' to replace reactive policymaking, utilizing strategic foresight and feedback systems to navigate the volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity (VUCA) of the global industrial system.
• A bioregional mining approach is recommended to prioritize local production and consumption (re-localisation), reducing dependence on global supply chains and ensuring mining activities align with local ecological boundaries.
• The report highlights a critical need for a new social contract in the SADC mining sector to address astronomical corruption—estimated by the AU at $140 billion annually—and to ensure a more equitable distribution of mineral wealth.

APA

CLOETE, D., JENTEL, L., WOLF, N., MZINYATHI, L., BENKENSTEIN, A., & JOSEPH, A. (2023). Re-imagining the Critical Minerals Ecosystem in SADC. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/SAIIA_Futures-SR3_CMsEcosystemSADC.pdf

Chicago

CLOETE, DEON, LETITIA JENTEL, NDEAPO WOLF, LITHA MZINYATHI, ALEX BENKENSTEIN, and ADRIAN JOSEPH. Re-imagining the Critical Minerals Ecosystem in SADC. South African Institute of International Affairs, 2023. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/SAIIA_Futures-SR3_CMsEcosystemSADC.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=CLOETE |first1=DEON |last2=JENTEL |first2=LETITIA |last3=WOLF |first3=NDEAPO |last4=MZINYATHI |first4=LITHA |last5=BENKENSTEIN |first5=ALEX |last6=JOSEPH |first6=ADRIAN |title=Re-imagining the Critical Minerals Ecosystem in SADC |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=September 2023 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/SAIIA_Futures-SR3_CMsEcosystemSADC.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cloete2023reimagining, author = {CLOETE, DEON and JENTEL, LETITIA and WOLF, NDEAPO and MZINYATHI, LITHA and BENKENSTEIN, ALEX and JOSEPH, ADRIAN}, title = {{Re-imagining the Critical Minerals Ecosystem in SADC}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2023}, month = sep, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/SAIIA_Futures-SR3_CMsEcosystemSADC.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }