Anticipatory Governance of Critical Minerals in SADC: Strategic Policy Pathways for 2035

The document advocates for a shift from extractive-centered development to 'anticipatory governance' for critical minerals in the SADC region. It proposes transitioning to a 'Resource Balanced Economy' (RBE) that accounts for energy constraints and resource flows, rather than relying on traditional linear or circular economy models. The brief emphasizes the need for a new social contract to protect workers against automation, financial innovations to reduce risk ratings and currency devaluation, and a 'bioregional' approach to value chains to prevent regional fragmentation and ensure fair benefit distribution among member states.

• The World Bank forecasts a potential increase of nearly 500% in the extraction of cobalt, lithium, and graphite by 2050, driven by low-carbon energy technologies.
• Southern African countries are primary global suppliers of critical minerals, with the Democratic Republic of Congo providing approximately 70% of the world's cobalt, while Zimbabwe and Namibia hold significant lithium deposits.
• The document proposes a 'Resource Balanced Economy' (RBE) as an evolution of the Circular Economy, arguing that the latter often ignores the energy costs of extraction and recycling, which become critical as energy prices rise.
• Anticipatory governance is recommended to move SADC from reactive to proactive decision-making, utilizing complex systems thinking to manage the 'global polycrisis' and uncertainties in the minerals sector.
• A new social contract is deemed necessary because increasing mechanization and digitization in mining will reduce human resource needs, threatening employment in countries dependent on the sector.
• To combat high-risk ratings and currency devaluation, the brief suggests financial innovations including the diversification of currencies, the use of commodity-backed finance, and the adoption of stable digital currencies.
• The brief advocates for 'bioregionalism' and re-localization in regional value chains to ensure that benefits are shared across SADC member states and to resist the influence of major economic entities like China, the EU, and the US.

APA

South African Institute of International Affairs (2023). Anticipatory Governance of Critical Minerals in SADC: Strategic Policy Pathways for 2035. https://saiia.org.za/research/anticipatory-governance-of-critical-minerals-in-sadc-strategic-policy-pathways-for-2035/

Chicago

South African Institute of International Affairs. Anticipatory Governance of Critical Minerals in SADC: Strategic Policy Pathways for 2035. 2023. https://saiia.org.za/research/anticipatory-governance-of-critical-minerals-in-sadc-strategic-policy-pathways-for-2035/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=South African Institute of International Affairs |title=Anticipatory Governance of Critical Minerals in SADC: Strategic Policy Pathways for 2035 |date=27 September 2023 |url=https://saiia.org.za/research/anticipatory-governance-of-critical-minerals-in-sadc-strategic-policy-pathways-for-2035/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{southafricaninstituteofinternationalaffairs2023anticipatory, author = {{South African Institute of International Affairs}}, title = {{Anticipatory Governance of Critical Minerals in SADC: Strategic Policy Pathways for 2035}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2023}, month = sep, url = {https://saiia.org.za/research/anticipatory-governance-of-critical-minerals-in-sadc-strategic-policy-pathways-for-2035/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }