Training in Uncertainty: Skills Foresight for a Just Green Hydrogen Transition

The document identifies a critical gap between the technical vocational skills provided by South Africa's TVET sector and the requirements of the emerging green hydrogen economy. It critiques the current reliance on quantitative, top-down skills planning and proposes 'skills foresight' (SF)—a participatory approach that imagines multiple futures—to enhance systemic agility. The authors recommend establishing a dedicated foresight team within the Department of Higher Education and Training (DHET), creating a Cross-Sectoral TVET Advisory Board for Green Transversal Skills, and initiating participatory futures dialogues to co-create a new social compact for education that reduces the perceived inferiority of TVET qualifications compared to university degrees.

• South Africa's current skills planning system suffers from limited anticipatory capacity and inadequate coordination, relying too heavily on quantitative data and employer signals that often fail to predict future labour market demands.
• The development of a local green hydrogen economy (GHE) is hindered by a shortage of mid-level renewable energy skills, with specific gaps already noted in roles such as hydrogen fuel transporters.
• The TVET sector faces a tension between the need for national standardisation of qualifications and the need for local responsiveness to rapid technological changes, such as those required for green hydrogen.
• Due to uncertainties regarding South Africa's geographic distance from European markets and its water scarcity, there is an urgent need to develop 'transversal competencies'—versatile skills like digital proficiency and critical thinking—to ensure workforce resilience regardless of the GHE's ultimate scale.
• There is a pervasive societal bias where TVET qualifications are viewed as inferior to university degrees, which the authors suggest addressing through a new 'social compact' for education based on participatory futures approaches.
• The document proposes specific institutional reforms, including a DHET foresight team funded by the NSF, a Cross-Sectoral TVET Advisory Board for Green Transversal Skills within the HRDC, and the use of 'futures literacy labs' to engage stakeholders.

APA

Cloete, D., & Pretorius, F. (2024). Training in Uncertainty: Skills Foresight for a Just Green Hydrogen Transition. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/SAIIA_PB_291_TrainingInUncertainty.pdf

Chicago

Cloete, Deon, and Francois Pretorius. Training in Uncertainty: Skills Foresight for a Just Green Hydrogen Transition. South African Institute of International Affairs, 2024. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/SAIIA_PB_291_TrainingInUncertainty.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cloete |first1=Deon |last2=Pretorius |first2=Francois |title=Training in Uncertainty: Skills Foresight for a Just Green Hydrogen Transition |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=May 2024 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/SAIIA_PB_291_TrainingInUncertainty.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cloete2024training, author = {Cloete, Deon and Pretorius, Francois}, title = {{Training in Uncertainty: Skills Foresight for a Just Green Hydrogen Transition}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2024}, month = may, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/SAIIA_PB_291_TrainingInUncertainty.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }