Shifting Ground: A Strategic Foresight Framework to Transform African Mining

The policy brief argues that the African mining sector is hindered by political and institutional lock-ins, specifically the slow ratification of AMDC statutes. It proposes integrating strategic foresight—a systematic approach to anticipating future trends—into the AMDC's four-pillar mandate to move from reactive to proactive governance. The authors advocate for a 'foresight-led social contract' to ensure mineral wealth benefits local communities and supports the green energy transition. Key recommendations include establishing an anticipatory governance unit, reforming financial architectures to reduce debt dependency, and coordinating regional responses to transnational risks such as deep-sea mining and Global North competition.

• The African Minerals Development Centre (AMDC) is currently obstructed by slow ratification of its statutes, with only four countries—Guinea, Mali, Zambia, and Nigeria—having reached ratification status, despite 15 signatures being required for the statute to enter into force.
• The document proposes infusing the AMDC's four-pillar mandate—AMV implementation, geological information systems, linkages and value addition, and artisanal and small-scale mining—with specific strategic foresight competencies such as futuring, visioning, environmental scanning, and causal layered analysis.
• The mining sector faces emerging transnational risks, including the potential for 'stranded assets' due to technological replacements, environmental damage from deep-sea mining, and competitive pressures from the US Inflation Reduction Act and the European Green Deal.
• To achieve resilience, the document argues for a shift in financial architecture to address unsustainable debt cycles, noting that African countries are projected to spend approximately $74 billion on debt service fees in 2024, a 335% increase since 2010.
• The authors recommend that the AMDC establish a dedicated anticipatory governance unit to transition the sector from short-term reactive approaches to long-term, proactive, and innovative governance frameworks.

APA

JENTEL, L., CLOETE, D., & MWAGIRU, N. (2024). Shifting Ground: A Strategic Foresight Framework to Transform African Mining. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/SAIIA_PI-156_AMDCShiftingGround-2.pdf

Chicago

JENTEL, LETITIA, DEON CLOETE, and NJERI MWAGIRU. Shifting Ground: A Strategic Foresight Framework to Transform African Mining. South African Institute of International Affairs, 2024. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/SAIIA_PI-156_AMDCShiftingGround-2.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=JENTEL |first1=LETITIA |last2=CLOETE |first2=DEON |last3=MWAGIRU |first3=NJERI |title=Shifting Ground: A Strategic Foresight Framework to Transform African Mining |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=September 2024 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/SAIIA_PI-156_AMDCShiftingGround-2.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{jentel2024shifting, author = {JENTEL, LETITIA and CLOETE, DEON and MWAGIRU, NJERI}, title = {{Shifting Ground: A Strategic Foresight Framework to Transform African Mining}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2024}, month = sep, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/SAIIA_PI-156_AMDCShiftingGround-2.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }