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The document provides a framework for governments to assess how climate policies affect national budgets, focusing on the production side of fossil fuels and infrastructure. It details a five-step methodology: establishing a base case, developing scenarios, assessing policy impacts, allocating value between consumers and producers, and splitting value between government and commercial entities. The report applies this to Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Egypt, highlighting that oil assets are most sensitive to global demand shifts, while coal and gas are more influenced by regional dynamics and infrastructure. It recommends that governments reduce upfront capital commitments, adapt tax regimes, and diversify into low-carbon technologies to mitigate the risk of stranded assets.

The document outlines the impact of fossil fuel subsidy reform (FFSR) across 32 countries, projecting a potential reduction of 5.46 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions and government savings of nearly USD 3 trillion by 2030. It highlights that the seven countries with the highest potential for absolute reductions could each cut close to or more than 400 million tonnes of GHG emissions. The analysis suggests that combining FFSR with a 10% fossil energy tax and investing the resulting revenues into energy efficiency and renewable energy could reduce global CO2e emissions by 10.42 billion tonnes by 2030.

The SAVi assessment of a proposed Public Bicycle Sharing (PBS) system in Dwarka, New Delhi, demonstrates that while the project may show negative conventional financial results, the integration of social and environmental externalities creates a strong positive business case. Across three demand scenarios, the system is projected to generate significant net benefits, with discounted net benefits over 20 years ranging from INR 3.14 billion to INR 4.82 billion. The largest benefits are derived from time saved, increased retail revenues, and higher property values, which outweigh the primary negative externality of increased cyclist exposure to air pollution.

The report evaluates three mobility scenarios for Indonesia using the Sustainable Asset Valuation (SAVi) methodology. Scenario 1 focuses on public transport and non-motorized transport; Scenario 2 focuses on private vehicle electrification; and Scenario 3 combines both. While Scenario 2 offers the highest benefit-cost ratio (BCR) due to lower investment costs, Scenario 3 provides the greatest overall societal benefit, with cumulative discounted benefits of USD 450.1 billion by 2050 and a societal BCR of 4.93. The analysis emphasizes that decarbonizing the energy supply is essential for transport decarbonization and that integrating health and safety externalities into cost-benefit analyses reveals the true investment worthiness of sustainable transport.

The African Futures platform, powered by the International Futures modelling tool from the University of Denver, provides forecasts for every African country and region through 2043. It analyzes 17 thematic areas, including climate change and energy, and compares a 'Current Path' against eight thematic scenarios and a combined Agenda 2063 scenario to simulate the impact of policy interventions.

This research paper examines the potential economic and environmental implications of hydraulic fracturing (fracking) for shale gas in South Africa, presenting three distinct scenarios to evaluate the trade-offs between economic growth and ecological preservation.

The research paper evaluates Africa's progress toward Sustainable Development Goal 6 (universal WASH access by 2030). Using the International Futures forecasting system, it concludes that the continent is not on track to meet this target. To address this gap, the paper analyzes two scenarios: an aggressive push toward universal access and a moderate approach based on 2015 baselines.

The document presents a positive scenario for Africa based on the education development rates of the continent's most successful countries. If these rates were applied universally, Africa would achieve universal primary education by 2030 and universal basic education by 2035. By 2050, this trajectory would result in 85% upper-secondary enrolment, a reduction of 3.5 million malnourished children, a decrease of 60 million people living on less than US$ 1.25 per day, and a nearly 8% reduction in the chance of state failure. Economically, this would add US$ 2.5 trillion to Africa's GDP by 2050, exceeding the cumulative cost of education spending by more than five times.

The document outlines three future scenarios for South Africa by 2030: 'Bafana Bafana' (perennial underachievement), 'A Nation Divided' (populist policies and factional politics), and 'Mandela Magic' (a clear economic and developmental vision). It highlights that the 'Mandela Magic' pathway could result in an economy 23 per cent larger than the current 'Bafana Bafana' path and proposes seven strategic interventions to achieve this outcome.

This policy brief examines the impact of small-scale photovoltaic (PV) adoption on municipal revenue in South Africa's Western Cape and proposes a sequential policy approach involving advanced metering infrastructure, smart grid investment, and local PV manufacturing to mitigate financial losses.

The Western Cape is currently caught in a middle-income trap, characterized by slow GDP per capita growth and significant inequality in access to basic services. The document evaluates three scenarios: an 'Inclusive Economy' focusing on basic services and education, a 'Vibrant Economy' focusing on high-level skills and business environment, and an 'Enterprising Cape' which combines both. The analysis finds that while isolated interventions provide some gains, a comprehensive approach is necessary to significantly raise GDP per capita, improve the Human Development Index (HDI), and accelerate the transition to high-income status by the mid-2030s.

Africa is experiencing rapid population growth and urbanisation, with a projected population of over 1.8 billion by 2035. While the continent shows a positive overall trend, growth is heterogeneous and often outpaced by population increases, leading to a projected rise in the number of people living in extreme poverty. The report highlights a 'demographic dividend' that remains delayed due to high fertility rates, and notes that while global democratic trends are declining, popular support for democracy in Africa remains strong despite fragile foundations. Security is shifting from large-scale interstate conflicts toward more complex, lower-fatality violence, including urban riots and terrorism. Economic growth is hindered by a lack of structural transformation and a significant infrastructure deficit, particularly in basic services like water and sanitation, which the report argues are more critical for poverty reduction than traditional trade infrastructure.

The document warns that increasing residential solar PV adoption in the Western Cape will likely lead to significant municipal revenue losses, as high-income consumers reduce their reliance on the grid. Using the International Futures (IFs) model, the authors project that under a 'Current Path' scenario, the province could lose nearly 11% of municipal revenue cumulatively by 2040. To counter this, the brief proposes a sequential policy approach: short-term investment in Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) to gather data, medium-term implementation of feed-in tariffs (FIT) and Time of Use (ToU) tariffs to reclaim revenue, and long-term strategic investment in a 'smart grid' and the local PV manufacturing industry. The 'Embrace and Enhance' scenario, which combines high levels of smart infrastructure investment with local manufacturing and ICT spillovers, is forecast to result in the lowest cumulative revenue losses, although it still does not fully offset the impact of decentralized energy production.

The document describes the use of NREL's Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) and RMI's internal dispatch model to evaluate the technical feasibility and cost of four electricity scenarios: Maintain, Migrate, Renew, and Transform. It outlines spatial and temporal resolutions, generation cost assumptions based on learning curve theory, and specific modifications made to approximate distributed energy resources in the Transform case.

The report examines the economic viability of 'grid defection'—where customers use solar PV and battery storage to operate independently of the electric grid. It analyzes five U.S. geographies to determine when the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for these systems undercuts retail utility prices. The findings suggest that grid parity is already present in Hawaii and is imminent for millions of other U.S. customers, threatening to strand utility assets and trigger a 'utility death spiral' of rising prices and falling sales.

The document outlines predictable trends and critical unknowns for the Southern African region, noting a decline in solar energy costs and increasing climate vulnerability, while questioning the pace of EV adoption, infrastructure availability, and the role of South Africa's auto-manufacturing protections.

The paper examines the role of ivory speculators in China, distinguishing between large criminal syndicates (Type I) and private retail investors (Type II). It argues that an indefinite ban, implemented swiftly and combined with demand-reduction campaigns, is the most effective way to trigger a 'fire sale' of stockpiles, thereby crashing prices and reducing the incentive for poaching. Conversely, a finite ban could incentivize 'banking on extinction,' where speculators drive species scarcity to maximize future monopoly rents. The authors recommend that China destroy its official stockpiles and regulate the mammoth ivory trade to prevent it from being used as a cover for laundering illegal elephant ivory.

The report argues that energy efficiency is a critical catalyst for expanding cooling services to low-income households. While basic electricity access (SDG7.1) is often insufficient for energy-intensive appliances, the adoption of Minimum Energy Performance Standards (MEPS) could make 1.07 billion more appliances compatible with available electricity services by 2030. Specifically, MEPS could make an additional 133 million refrigerator-freezers and 15 million air conditioners viable for households at medium and low risk in high-impact countries. While fans are already widely compatible, stringent MEPS are needed to reduce their overall energy demand and free up household resources.

The report assesses the current state of cooking energy in Madagascar, where over 80% of rural households rely on wood and over 60% of urban households use charcoal. It models a 'Base Scenario' aligned with national policy and a 'Universal Access Scenario' aligned with SDG7, estimating the fuel production potential for bioethanol, biogas, and pellets. The analysis highlights that while bio-fuels have significant potential without impacting food security, the primary barrier to adoption is the cost of fuel, which represents 97.1% of transition costs. Transitioning to clean cooking could reduce residential energy consumption by up to 65% and prevent thousands of deaths from indoor air pollution by 2030.

Sierra Leone's Energy Transition and Green Growth Plan outlines a Low Carbon Development (LCD) scenario to reach 100% electrification and clean cooking access by 2040. The plan emphasizes a shift from fossil fuel dependency—particularly diesel in mining and transport—toward hydropower and solar PV. Key targets include expanding power capacity to 4.5 GW by 2050 and integrating the mining sector into the national grid by 2030. The transition is estimated to require approximately 39 billion USD in total capital investment by 2050, with the transport sector accounting for the largest share. The plan also integrates social objectives, such as the 'Feed Salone' strategy for food security and the Gender Equality and Women’s Empowerment Act (GEWE) to ensure a just transition for women and youth.