THE YEAR OF THE ELECTRIC CAR SCENARIOS FOR SOUTHERN AFRICA

The document outlines predictable trends and critical unknowns for the Southern African region, noting a decline in solar energy costs and increasing climate vulnerability, while questioning the pace of EV adoption, infrastructure availability, and the role of South Africa's auto-manufacturing protections.

• Certainties in the region include accelerating climate change and growing vulnerability, with an expected 10% annual decline in rainfall and severe droughts negatively impacting tourism, employment, agriculture, and livelihoods.
• Global energy trends show a 69% drop in the weighted average cost of utility-scale solar photo-voltaic electricity between 2010 and 2016, falling from $0.36/kWh to $0.11/kWh, while coal and nuclear-generated power costs are increasing rapidly.
• The adoption of electric vehicles in Southern Africa is subject to several uncertainties, including the speed of consumer adoption, the potential for youth to prefer auto-sharing over ownership, the availability of recharging infrastructure or battery exchangeability, and whether the transition will be inclusive or limited to the wealthy.
• South Africa's protection of its traditional auto-manufacturing sector is a known factor, but the extent to which this protection will hinder the shift toward EVs is uncertain.

APA

South African Institute of International Affairs (n.d.). THE YEAR OF THE ELECTRIC CAR SCENARIOS FOR SOUTHERN AFRICA. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/infographic_web-version.pdf

Chicago

South African Institute of International Affairs. THE YEAR OF THE ELECTRIC CAR SCENARIOS FOR SOUTHERN AFRICA. n.d. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/infographic_web-version.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=South African Institute of International Affairs |title=THE YEAR OF THE ELECTRIC CAR SCENARIOS FOR SOUTHERN AFRICA |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/infographic_web-version.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{southafricaninstituteofinternationalaffairsndyear, author = {{South African Institute of International Affairs}}, title = {{THE YEAR OF THE ELECTRIC CAR SCENARIOS FOR SOUTHERN AFRICA}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/infographic_web-version.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }