THE YEAR OF THE ELECTRIC CAR SCENARIOS FOR SOUTHERN AFRICA

This fact sheet from the South African Institute of International Affairs outlines the 'key certainties' and 'key uncertainties' regarding the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) in Southern Africa, highlighting trends in urbanisation, energy costs, and climate vulnerability.

• The region faces several 'key certainties', including accelerating climate change and growing vulnerability in Southern Africa, where severe drought has negatively affected tourism, employment, agriculture, and livelihoods, with an expected annual rainfall decline of 10%.
• Global trends influencing the region include a 69% drop in the weighted average cost of utility-scale solar photo-voltaic electricity between 2010 and 2016, falling from $0.36/kWh to $0.11/kWh, alongside a rapid increase in the cost of nuclear and coal-generated power.
• Significant uncertainties surround the adoption of EVs in Southern Africa, specifically regarding the speed of adoption, whether youth will prefer auto-sharing over personal ownership, the availability of recharging infrastructure, and whether EVs will be inclusive or limited to the wealthy.
• The document identifies a tension regarding South Africa's automotive sector, noting that while the protection of the auto-manufacturing sector is a given, it is uncertain if the state will protect the traditional sector at the expense of encouraging a shift toward EVs.

APA

South African Institute of International Affairs (n.d.). THE YEAR OF THE ELECTRIC CAR SCENARIOS FOR SOUTHERN AFRICA. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/infographic_web-version.pdf

Chicago

South African Institute of International Affairs. THE YEAR OF THE ELECTRIC CAR SCENARIOS FOR SOUTHERN AFRICA. n.d. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/infographic_web-version.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=South African Institute of International Affairs |title=THE YEAR OF THE ELECTRIC CAR SCENARIOS FOR SOUTHERN AFRICA |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/infographic_web-version.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{southafricaninstituteofinternationalaffairsndyear, author = {{South African Institute of International Affairs}}, title = {{THE YEAR OF THE ELECTRIC CAR SCENARIOS FOR SOUTHERN AFRICA}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/infographic_web-version.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }