Search Climate Insights Directory

The policy brief examines the devastating socioeconomic and financial impacts of load shedding in South Africa, highlighting a cumulative 15 percentage point loss in GDP growth from 2020 to 2023. It argues that the current reliance on Eskom's aging coal fleet and proposed nuclear projects is insufficient and too costly. Instead, it advocates for municipalities to leverage solar PV and battery energy storage systems (BESS), which are significantly cheaper and faster to deploy, to increase electricity supply and reduce bulk purchase costs.

The Great Lakes region—comprising Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—is positioned to drive US aviation fuel targets due to its strong industrial networks and feedstock availability. While the region possesses significant strengths in ethanol supply chains and logistics, a policy gap analysis reveals that no state currently has a comprehensive, coordinated approach to SAF demand and supply. The brief argues that leveraging existing infrastructure, such as the O'Hare International Airport hub and the St. Lawrence Seaway, alongside federal incentives from the Inflation Reduction Act, can catalyze a regional bioeconomy and reduce aviation emissions.

The Great Lakes region is well-positioned for the EV transition due to its automotive history and R&D capacity, but faces competition from the 'Battery Belt' in the Deep South. While the region has significant midstream and downstream capacity, it lacks comprehensive state-level industrial strategies, particularly regarding battery end-of-life mandates and recycling incentives. The document argues that states must coordinate on strategic roadmaps, workforce retraining, and clean energy infrastructure to avoid economic disruption in 'powertrain communities' specialized in internal combustion engine (ICE) components.

The document assesses the impact of operating three units at the Kusile power station without Flue Gas Desulfurization (FGD) from December 1, 2023, to March 31, 2025. It finds that this bypass will lead to a 6-fold increase in SO2 emissions and a 40% increase in mercury emissions, resulting in approximately 670 excess deaths and R16.8 billion in economic health damages. The authors argue that Eskom's own health impact estimates are unrealistically low because they use outdated modeling tools, ignore mercury emissions, and only consider a small 50 km geographic radius.

The June 2021 heat wave in British Columbia was the deadliest disaster in the province's history, resulting in 619 direct heat-related deaths. The report estimates the societal cost of these lives lost at $5.5 billion using the Value of a Statistical Life (VSL) metric. Beyond mortality, the event caused $12 million in healthcare costs, significant agricultural revenue losses (at least $25 million), and disruptions to electricity and transportation infrastructure. Vulnerabilities were exacerbated by a lack of mechanical cooling in homes, inadequate urban greening, and institutional failures in disaster response and communication. The report argues that without adaptation, heat-related hospitalizations could double by 2030 and annual deaths could average 1,370 by 2030. Key recommendations include updating building codes for mechanical cooling, increasing urban forest canopies, improving weather warning lead times to three days, and implementing independent public reviews of disaster responses.

The document highlights the potential negative economic consequences of the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) on Africa, particularly for least developed countries (LDCs). It warns of significant GDP and export losses, administrative barriers to market access, and a lack of concrete EU financial commitments to help African manufacturing industries decarbonize.

The document argues that major carbon producers are responsible for a significant portion of the increasing wildfire risk in western North America. It attributes 48% of the rise in fire-danger conditions since 1901 and 37% of the cumulative burned forest area since 1986 to emissions from 88 major fossil fuel and cement companies. In California, wildfires between 2017 and 2021 caused over $21 billion in economic damages and released an average of 53 million metric tons of CO2-equivalent annually. The report calls for corporate accountability, legal access to justice, and state-level policies to reduce emissions, improve forest health, and protect vulnerable communities.

The document explains the mechanics of the GloBE rules, which aim to ensure large multinational enterprises (MNEs) pay a minimum effective tax rate of 15%. It outlines three primary response options for developing countries: introducing a locally collected minimum tax (either a Qualified Domestic Minimum Top-up Tax or a general national minimum tax), reviewing and reforming tax incentives that lower the effective tax rate below 15%, or focusing on other priorities if the impact is negligible. The guide also provides a step-by-step methodology for assessing a country's exposure based on available data and analyzes legal obstacles, such as fiscal stabilization clauses in investment contracts and Bilateral Investment Treaties (BITs), that may hinder tax reforms.

An analysis of 215 U.S. locations reveals that 84% have experienced a long-term decrease in winter chill since 1980. This trend threatens the $27 billion U.S. non-citrus fruit and nut industry, as many temperate trees require sustained cold temperatures to ensure proper flowering, pollination, and fruit yield. The study highlights significant chill decreases in key producing regions, particularly in California, Washington, and the Southeast, affecting high-value crops such as grapes, almonds, and strawberries.

The report examines how developed nations are adopting 'climate-justified' protectionist measures, specifically the EU's CBAM and the US's IRA, which depart from previous neoliberal trade doctrines. It argues that these unilateral policies threaten African economic growth and industrialisation by creating market barriers and restricting policy space. The author suggests that Africa should oppose the CBAM, leverage the US's use of localisation to justify its own local content requirements, and campaign for the treatment of green technologies as global public goods through the reform of TRIPS rules.

The Canadian Climate Institute argues that the 2023 federal budget must prioritise clean growth to mitigate economic risks and compete with the United States' Inflation Reduction Act. The Institute identifies four priority areas for evaluation: the Canada Growth Fund, carbon contracts for difference, investment tax credits for electricity, and 'electro-federalism' to improve the electrical grid. The document highlights that climate change could cost the Canadian economy 25 billion in lost growth by 2025, while transitioning from fossil fuels to clean electricity could reduce average household energy bills by 12% by 2050.

The report analyzes how EU and G7 sanctions on Russian coal imports have disrupted the Kuzbass region, which produces over 55% of Russia's coal. It details the region's high economic dependency on coal, the logistical challenges of redirecting exports to Asia, and the risks of social unrest due to potential job losses. The document presents three future scenarios (Reference, Soft, and Hard) through 2030, projecting significant declines in production, revenue, and employment under the 'Hard' scenario, while noting that reduced coal activity may lower methane and CO2 emissions.

The natural infrastructure sector in the Canadian Prairies contributed over CAD 4.1 billion to GDP and employed over 33,000 people directly in 2022. In Manitoba, the sector directly employed over 5,700 people and contributed over CAD 540 million to the provincial economy in 2022. Investment scenarios for Manitoba suggest that annual investments of CAD 10 million or CAD 25 million could increase direct jobs by 8% to 21% and direct GDP by 7% to 17%. Similar growth potentials are identified for Alberta and Saskatchewan, where natural infrastructure is viewed as a means to bridge water infrastructure gaps and increase resilience against floods, droughts, and wildfires.

The document highlights the economic value of natural infrastructure in the Canadian Prairies, noting that in 2022, the sector directly employed over 33,000 people and contributed over CAD 4.1 billion to the region's GDP. In Saskatchewan specifically, the sector directly employed over 5,800 people and contributed CAD 640 million to the provincial economy in 2022. The report argues that increased annual investments—such as CAD 10 million or CAD 25 million in Saskatchewan—could significantly boost direct jobs and GDP while addressing water infrastructure gaps and increasing resilience against climate impacts like floods, droughts, and wildfires.

The report analyzes the economic and environmental consequences of delaying the liberalisation of Poland's 10H distance rule for onshore wind energy. It finds that each year of delay reduces potential installed capacity by 1.5 GW and increases cumulative electricity costs between 2026 and 2030 by approximately 6-7 billion PLN. The study highlights that while the proposed government changes could unlock up to 27 GW of additional potential and increase available land to 7.1% of Poland's area, administrative barriers remain. Faster implementation of these changes would reduce CO2 emissions by 5 million tonnes per year of acceleration and decrease reliance on energy imports and fossil fuels.

The document examines how the war in Ukraine disrupted global supply chains, leading to a sharp increase in fertilizer prices across Africa. It notes that these price hikes, combined with high input costs for natural gas and coal, threaten crop yields and increase food prices. While short-term input subsidies are common, the brief advocates for industrialization and the utilization of Africa's natural gas, coal, and phosphate rock reserves to build domestic fertilizer production capacity.

The Inflation Reduction Act commits $369 billion to energy and climate initiatives to decarbonize the US economy and secure clean energy supply chains. Key measures include tax credits for electric vehicles, residential energy efficiency, and green hydrogen, alongside funding for urban forestry and carbon capture. The legislation targets a reduction in energy costs for households, the revitalization of former fossil fuel communities, and the acceleration of low-carbon industrial production in sectors like steel and cement.

The document outlines a pathway to reduce U.S. oil and gas methane emissions by 65% using mature technologies and standards already employed in states like Colorado and New Mexico. It advocates for strengthening EPA regulations to include frequent leak detection and repair (LDAR) and a total ban on routine flaring. Additionally, it supports the Build Back Better Act's Methane Emissions Reduction Program (MERP) as a complementary financial incentive. The author asserts that these measures would save society $13 billion annually by 2025, prevent millions of tons of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) from entering the atmosphere, and create approximately 220,000 total jobs without negatively impacting drilling activity.

The study evaluates three scenarios for the EU ETS in aviation: the European Commission's intra-European proposal, a 'semi scope' covering all departing flights, and a 'full scope' covering all incoming and departing flights. It finds that expanding the scope to all flights would reduce emissions by 113% compared to the Commission's proposal and generate significantly higher revenues—up to 107€ billion over 15 years—while carbon costs would remain a small fraction of airline operating costs. The document argues against reliance on the UN's Corsia offsetting scheme, citing its uncertainty and potential to reduce emission savings by 77% compared to expectations.

The report evaluates the impact of expanding the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) to cover more European aviation flights compared to the European Commission's (EC) proposal, which retains the EU ETS for intra-EEA flights and uses CORSIA for flights between the EEA and other participating states. Using the AERO-MS model, the study finds that expanding the EU ETS to include all outgoing flights (Scenario 1) or all outgoing and incoming flights (Scenario 2) would significantly increase emission reductions and auctioning revenues, though at a higher cost to airlines. Specifically, Scenario 2 would result in a 113% higher emission reduction than the EC proposal. The report also highlights uncertainties in CORSIA's effectiveness, noting that changes in the baseline or non-participation of major aviation countries could reduce its emission reductions by up to 77%.