Potential health impacts of bypassing SO2 controls at Kusile

The document assesses the impact of operating three units at the Kusile power station without Flue Gas Desulfurization (FGD) from December 1, 2023, to March 31, 2025. It finds that this bypass will lead to a 6-fold increase in SO2 emissions and a 40% increase in mercury emissions, resulting in approximately 670 excess deaths and R16.8 billion in economic health damages. The authors argue that Eskom's own health impact estimates are unrealistically low because they use outdated modeling tools, ignore mercury emissions, and only consider a small 50 km geographic radius.

• Bypassing the Flue Gas Desulfurization (FGD) controls at Kusile is projected to cause a 6-fold increase in SO2 emissions and approximately a 40% increase in mercury emissions.
• The total excess emissions resulting from the exemption are projected to be 280,000 tonnes of SO2 and 7,200 kg of mercury, with the SO2 volume representing nearly 20 years of normal plant operations.
• The bypass is estimated to cause 670 excess deaths from air pollution (95% CI: 430–950) and increase mercury-related deaths from 280 to 400.
• Non-fatal health impacts attributed to the bypass include 3,000 asthma emergency room visits, 1,400 preterm births, 720,000 days of work absence, and 900 years lived with disability.
• The economic cost of health damages due to air pollution from Kusile without FGD is estimated at R16.8 billion (range of R10.3–24.4 billion).
• The authors conclude that Eskom's health impact estimates are unrealistically low because they use the outdated RIVAD chemical mechanism in the CALPUFF model, which can underestimate PM2.5 concentrations by up to 200 times.
• Eskom's analysis is criticized for neglecting mercury emissions and limiting its geographic scope to a 50 km radius, whereas PM2.5 can travel thousands of kilometres.

APA

Myllyvirta, L., Uusivuori, E., Tattari, V., & Gonzalez, P. (2023). Potential health impacts of bypassing SO2 controls at Kusile. Centre for Environmental Rights. https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Kusile-bypass-HIA-with-evaluation-of-Eskom-AIR_Briefing-note_July_2023.pdf?x21779

Chicago

Myllyvirta, Lauri, Erika Uusivuori, Vera Tattari, and Paolo Gonzalez. Potential health impacts of bypassing SO2 controls at Kusile. Centre for Environmental Rights, 2023. https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Kusile-bypass-HIA-with-evaluation-of-Eskom-AIR_Briefing-note_July_2023.pdf?x21779.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Myllyvirta |first1=Lauri |last2=Uusivuori |first2=Erika |last3=Tattari |first3=Vera |last4=Gonzalez |first4=Paolo |title=Potential health impacts of bypassing SO2 controls at Kusile |publisher=Centre for Environmental Rights |date=July 2023 |url=https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Kusile-bypass-HIA-with-evaluation-of-Eskom-AIR_Briefing-note_July_2023.pdf?x21779 |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{myllyvirta2023potential, author = {Myllyvirta, Lauri and Uusivuori, Erika and Tattari, Vera and Gonzalez, Paolo}, title = {{Potential health impacts of bypassing SO2 controls at Kusile}}, institution = {Centre for Environmental Rights}, year = {2023}, month = jul, url = {https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Kusile-bypass-HIA-with-evaluation-of-Eskom-AIR_Briefing-note_July_2023.pdf?x21779}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }