NEW REALITIES OF THE RUSSIAN COAL SECTOR: FOCUS ON KUZBASS

The report analyzes how EU and G7 sanctions on Russian coal imports have disrupted the Kuzbass region, which produces over 55% of Russia's coal. It details the region's high economic dependency on coal, the logistical challenges of redirecting exports to Asia, and the risks of social unrest due to potential job losses. The document presents three future scenarios (Reference, Soft, and Hard) through 2030, projecting significant declines in production, revenue, and employment under the 'Hard' scenario, while noting that reduced coal activity may lower methane and CO2 emissions.

• The Kuzbass (Kemerovo) region is exceptionally dependent on the coal sector, with coal mining accounting for 27.2% of its gross regional product (GRP) in 2020 and providing 8.6% of the labour force (99,300 employees) in 2021.
• EU sanctions on coal imports, which began on 10 August 2022, are the most impactful for the sector because the EU purchased 23% of Russia's coal exports in 2021, leading to expected annual revenue losses exceeding EUR 8 billion.
• Kuzbass is more vulnerable to sanctions than other Russian regions; its coal exports declined by 14% in 2022 compared to 2021, while total Russian coal exports declined by only 7.6%.
• Redirecting coal exports to Asia is hampered by limited railway capacity on the Baikal-Amur (BAM) and Trans-Siberian railways, as well as the removal of government railway transport subsidies and administrative privileges for coal companies as of 1 June 2022.
• The Russian coal industry faces a critical dependency on imported technology; in 2018, the average share of imported equipment was 79%, with some items like bucket-wheel excavators being 100% dependent on imports.
• Under a 'Hard' scenario through 2030, the report projects that coal production in Kuzbass will decline by 49% by 2026 (compared to 2022), revenues may drop by about 75% from 2026-2030, and employment could fall by 49% by 2026.
• The decline of the coal sector in Kuzbass may lead to social unrest, mirroring the political turmoil of the 1990s, though the government may use military conscription to reduce the available workforce and mask unemployment.
• The degradation of the coal industry in Kuzbass could provide environmental benefits, including reduced CO2 emissions from combustion and lower methane emissions from mining.

APA

Korppoo, A., Sakharov, P., & Tsvetava, K. (2023). NEW REALITIES OF THE RUSSIAN COAL SECTOR: FOCUS ON KUZBASS. Climate Strategies. https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/New-Realities-of-the-Russian-Coal-Sector-Focus-on-Kuzbass_v2.pdf

Chicago

Korppoo, Anna, Platon Sakharov, and Klava Tsvetava. NEW REALITIES OF THE RUSSIAN COAL SECTOR: FOCUS ON KUZBASS. Climate Strategies, 2023. https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/New-Realities-of-the-Russian-Coal-Sector-Focus-on-Kuzbass_v2.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Korppoo |first1=Anna |last2=Sakharov |first2=Platon |last3=Tsvetava |first3=Klava |title=NEW REALITIES OF THE RUSSIAN COAL SECTOR: FOCUS ON KUZBASS |publisher=Climate Strategies |date=2023 |url=https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/New-Realities-of-the-Russian-Coal-Sector-Focus-on-Kuzbass_v2.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{korppoo2023new, author = {Korppoo, Anna and Sakharov, Platon and Tsvetava, Klava}, title = {{NEW REALITIES OF THE RUSSIAN COAL SECTOR: FOCUS ON KUZBASS}}, institution = {Climate Strategies}, year = {2023}, url = {https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/New-Realities-of-the-Russian-Coal-Sector-Focus-on-Kuzbass_v2.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }