The Impact of Fertilizer Prices on Africa

The document examines how the war in Ukraine disrupted global supply chains, leading to a sharp increase in fertilizer prices across Africa. It notes that these price hikes, combined with high input costs for natural gas and coal, threaten crop yields and increase food prices. While short-term input subsidies are common, the brief advocates for industrialization and the utilization of Africa's natural gas, coal, and phosphate rock reserves to build domestic fertilizer production capacity.

• Fertilizer prices in Africa increased sharply between 2021 and 2022, with the fertilizer price index showing a more than 100 percent increase from the first quarter of 2021 to the first quarter of 2022. In The Gambia, Senegal, and Tanzania, the retail price of NPK fertilizer more than doubled and urea tripled during the same period.
• The price surge is driven by the war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russia and Belarus, as Russia and Ukraine provided 37 percent of Africa's potassium, 17 percent of nitrogen, and 14 percent of phosphorus imports in 2019. Additionally, the cost of key inputs—natural gas, coal, and oil—has risen significantly since 2021.
• Rising fertilizer costs are expected to depress fertilizer use and lower crop yields, contributing to higher food prices. The World Food Programme estimates a decrease in cereal production in East Africa of approximately 16 percent this year.
• The brief argues that short-term input subsidies are fiscally unsustainable for countries in or near debt distress and do not address underlying costs. Instead, African countries should leverage their deposits of natural gas, coal, and phosphate rock to develop domestic fertilizer manufacturing as part of a broader industrial development policy.

APA

Gajigo, O. (2022). The Impact of Fertilizer Prices on Africa. Africa Policy Research Institute. https://afripoli.org/the-impact-of-fertilizer-prices-on-africa

Chicago

Gajigo, Ousman. The Impact of Fertilizer Prices on Africa. Africa Policy Research Institute, 2022. https://afripoli.org/the-impact-of-fertilizer-prices-on-africa.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Gajigo |first1=Ousman |title=The Impact of Fertilizer Prices on Africa |publisher=Africa Policy Research Institute |date=5 October 2022 |url=https://afripoli.org/the-impact-of-fertilizer-prices-on-africa |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{gajigo2022impact, author = {Gajigo, Ousman}, title = {{The Impact of Fertilizer Prices on Africa}}, institution = {Africa Policy Research Institute}, year = {2022}, month = oct, url = {https://afripoli.org/the-impact-of-fertilizer-prices-on-africa}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }