The Impact of Fertilizer Prices on Africa

This policy brief examines how the war in Ukraine has disrupted global supply chains and increased fertilizer prices across Africa, threatening food security and crop yields. It argues that while short-term input subsidies are necessary, African nations must pursue long-term industrialization to build local fertilizer manufacturing capacity using the continent's own natural gas, coal, and phosphate rock reserves.

• Fertilizer prices in Africa rose sharply between 2021 and 2022. By the second quarter of 2022, prices for urea, potassium chloride, triple superphosphate, and di-ammonium phosphate more than doubled compared to the previous year. The overall fertilizer price index saw an increase of over 100 percent from the first quarter of 2021 to the first quarter of 2022.
• The price spikes are driven by the war in Ukraine and subsequent sanctions. Russia and Ukraine were critical suppliers for Africa in 2019, providing 37 percent of potassium, 17 percent of nitrogen, and 14 percent of phosphorus imports. Additionally, the cost of essential inputs has risen, specifically natural gas (for ammonia-based fertilizer), coal (used in Chinese ammonia-based fertilizer), and oil.
• Rising fertilizer costs are expected to reduce crop yields and increase food prices across Africa. The World Food Programme estimates a production drop of approximately 16 percent for cereals in East Africa this year. This is compounded by global shocks, meaning lower domestic production cannot be easily offset by imports, as global food prices—including wheat and rice—are also rising.
• The document advocates for a shift from short-term input subsidies to long-term industrialization of fertilizer production. Africa possesses the necessary feedstocks, including phosphate rock and significant natural gas reserves (e.g., Nigeria with 206 trillion cubic feet and Algeria with 159 trillion cubic feet). Coal reserves in countries like South Africa, Nigeria, and Niger also support urea production, though high energy costs remain a challenge for manufacturing.

APA

Gajigo, O. (2022). The Impact of Fertilizer Prices on Africa. Africa Policy Research Institute. https://afripoli.org/the-impact-of-fertilizer-prices-on-africa

Chicago

Gajigo, Ousman. The Impact of Fertilizer Prices on Africa. Africa Policy Research Institute, 2022. https://afripoli.org/the-impact-of-fertilizer-prices-on-africa.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Gajigo |first1=Ousman |title=The Impact of Fertilizer Prices on Africa |publisher=Africa Policy Research Institute |date=5 October 2022 |url=https://afripoli.org/the-impact-of-fertilizer-prices-on-africa |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{gajigo2022impact, author = {Gajigo, Ousman}, title = {{The Impact of Fertilizer Prices on Africa}}, institution = {Africa Policy Research Institute}, year = {2022}, month = oct, url = {https://afripoli.org/the-impact-of-fertilizer-prices-on-africa}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }