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The Bottom-Up Energy Analysis System (BUENAS) is a stock accounting model developed by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) to project energy demand and evaluate the impact of energy efficiency policies, specifically Energy Efficiency Standards and Labeling (EES&L) programs, across residential, commercial, and industrial sectors.

This policy brief by the Institute for Security Studies uses the International Futures (IFs) forecasting model to analyze the projected rise in road traffic fatalities in Africa through 2050. It argues that road safety is a critical development issue, as rapid motorization often outpaces infrastructure and regulatory improvements. The document compares a 'base case' forecast with an 'improved scenario' where African countries stabilize death rates at current continental averages, demonstrating that aggressive road safety interventions could save millions of lives and provide a significant boost to the continent's GDP.

This technical report by the Stockholm Environment Institute analyzes three agricultural water management (AWM) scenarios in the Mkindo watershed of the Wami River Basin, Tanzania. Using community fieldwork and expert meetings, the report evaluates how different interventions—ranging from small-scale irrigation and rainwater storage to diesel pumps and large-scale commercial cash crop expansion—impact the livelihoods of small-scale farmers, livestock keepers, and other residents over a ten-year horizon.

This policy brief describes the integration of the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) and Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) systems to analyze the water-energy-climate nexus. Using a case study in California, the document demonstrates how integrated modeling can quantify the tradeoffs between reducing water imports through desalination and the resulting increases in electricity demand and greenhouse gas emissions.

This 2012 report by the Stockholm Environment Institute analyzes two agricultural water management (AWM) scenarios in the Jaldhaka watershed of West Bengal, India: widespread rural electrification and the expansion of independent tea growing. Using community fieldwork and expert meetings, the report evaluates the potential impacts of these changes on various stakeholder groups, livelihoods, and the environment over a ten-year horizon.

This policy brief, produced by the Stockholm Environment Institute in partnership with the business leaders' initiative 3C, examines the role of biomass in transitioning to a low-carbon economy by 2035. It argues that while biomass is a promising renewable energy source, it is constrained by physical limits and competing needs for food and materials. The document evaluates four future scenarios, concluding that a 'Sustainability Transition'—which balances climate mitigation with sustainable agricultural productivity—offers the most viable path for economic growth and environmental stability.

This policy brief, produced by the Stockholm Environment Institute in partnership with the business leaders' initiative 3C, examines the risk of metal scarcity for low-carbon technologies. Using a custom scenario calculator, the authors analyze the future supply and demand for cobalt, lithium, neodymium, indium, and tellurium, concluding that cumulative supply deficits for several of these metals could hinder the global transition to a low-carbon economy.

This policy brief by the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) discusses the challenges of providing sustainable energy access to the global poor while meeting climate goals. It presents three scenarios—Baseline, Basic Energy Access (BEA), and Shared Development Agenda (SDA)—to explore the energy systems required to enable long-term economic development. The document argues that market-based instruments alone are insufficient and calls for a transformative global governance framework, increased state-led investment in innovation, and the integration of energy targets into Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

This policy brief by the Institute for Security Studies examines the potential socio-economic impacts of increasing investment in basic education across Africa. Using the International Futures (IFs) modelling system, the authors simulate a scenario where African nations adopt the enrolment and completion growth rates of the continent's best-performing countries. The analysis suggests that a modest increase in GDP allocation to education could lead to significant long-term gains in GDP, poverty reduction, and public health, although these benefits would be realized over several decades.

This technical policy briefing summarizes results from the EC RTD ClimateCost project regarding the ancillary air quality and economic benefits of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policies. Using the GAINS and ALPHA models, the study compares a baseline scenario with a mitigation scenario aligned with the European Commission's 2 degrees target, focusing primarily on the EU27 with additional analysis for China and India.

This technical policy briefing note from the ClimateCost project assesses the potential health impacts and economic costs of climate change in Europe, specifically focusing on heat-related mortality, food-borne diseases, coastal flooding, and labour productivity. It compares a medium-to-high emission scenario (A1B) with a mitigation scenario (E1) and evaluates the role of adaptation and autonomous acclimatisation in reducing these risks.

This report by the Stockholm Environment Institute examines the relationship between economic development in low-income countries and global greenhouse gas emissions budgets. It argues that many climate-economics models rely on overly pessimistic growth projections for the poorest nations, which inadvertently weakens the urgency for high-income countries to reduce their own emissions. The author proposes three scenarios—Without Development, Development with Carbon, and Development without Carbon—to demonstrate how rapid economic growth in the developing world, if not coupled with strong decarbonization policies and funding from rich nations, could lead to a failure of global climate targets.

This technical policy briefing note describes the climate change projections used in the ClimateCost project, focusing on temperature and precipitation changes globally and across Europe. It evaluates three emission scenarios—A1B (medium-high), E1 (mitigation), and RCP8.5 (high)—using a combination of Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to assess future impacts and the associated uncertainties.

This report, prepared by the Stockholm Environment Institute and partners for the City of Seattle, develops a 'Carbon Neutral' scenario to demonstrate a pathway for the city to achieve net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050. The analysis focuses on 'core' emissions—buildings, transportation, and waste—where the city has the most direct policy influence. The scenario suggests that aggressive implementation of efficiency and fuel-switching strategies could reduce per capita GHG emissions by 90% by 2050 relative to 2008 levels.

This 2011 policy brief by the Stockholm Environment Institute evaluates transport and mobility trends in Estonia, concluding that current trends are unsustainable due to rising private car use and road freight. The document analyzes three development scenarios (BASE, TECHNO, and EFFECT) to meet EU greenhouse gas (GHG) emission limits by 2020 and provides recommendations for land use planning, financial measures, and mobility management to transition toward a more sustainable transport system.

This policy brief examines Agricultural Water Management (AWM) interventions in the Nariarlé watershed of Burkina Faso to alleviate food insecurity and poverty. It evaluates various scenarios—including improved rainfed agriculture, expanded irrigation, and increased reservoir storage—analyzing their impacts on crop yields, water resources, and local livelihoods. The document emphasizes that while AWMs can significantly increase production, their sustainability depends on strengthening the existing, largely informal, institutional networks and coordinating activities across the watershed.

This policy brief by the Stockholm Environment Institute analyzes the impact of international greenhouse gas offsets on the fulfillment of emission reduction pledges under the Cancún Agreements. It specifically examines the risk of 'double-counting'—where both the buyer and seller count the same emission reduction toward their targets—and how this could dilute global climate ambition and hinder the pursuit of a 2°C pathway.

This policy brief analyzes the political transition in Zimbabwe as of December 2010, focusing on the challenges of the Interim Government (IG) and the likelihood of elections in 2011. It evaluates the role of the security sector, the efficacy of international sanctions, and the mediation efforts of South Africa and SADC, while proposing three potential scenarios for the country's future.

This IISD study evaluates the feasibility of reducing greenhouse gas emissions from university data centres in Canada by analyzing three scenarios: relocation to zero-carbon facilities, relocation to low-emission urban grids with waste heat utilization, or modifying existing centres to capture waste heat. The study concludes that generating revenue through carbon credits is generally not economically attractive for individual universities, though a green community cloud operated by CANARIE is presented as a more viable alternative.

This workshop report details a Participatory Scenario Development (PSD) process conducted in January 2010 to identify future development pathways and climate change adaptation strategies for the Bras d’Or ecosystem in Cape Breton, Nova Scotia. The process involved stakeholders developing three distinct scenarios for the year 2060—status quo, best case, and worst case—to analyze the synergies and trade-offs between regional development priorities and climate resilience.