Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030 (July 2020)

This document describes the approach and methodology used for a special report titled "Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030 (July 2020)". It outlines the use of the International Futures (IFs) forecasting platform to model three scenarios against a pre-pandemic baseline, focusing on economic growth, poverty, and Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) targets through 2030.

• The report utilizes the International Futures (IFs) forecasting platform to analyze three potential COVID-19 impact scenarios in Africa compared to a pre-COVID-19 baseline, with a forecast horizon extending to 2030. The analysis specifically examines impacts on per capita income, poverty, economic growth, and the achievement of selected Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) targets.
• The quantitative scenarios were supplemented by a qualitative approach consisting of three dialogues involving global experts and practitioners from Africa. These dialogues focused on 15 representative African countries to test assumptions and refine the scenarios.
• The report's findings were validated through feedback from approximately 100 dialogue participants, a project reference group of experts and development agency representatives, a questionnaire, and presentations to public health experts and macro-economic experts at the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA).
• The report concludes by providing four primary policy recommendations intended to strengthen Africa's resilience and reduce vulnerability for the benefit of African governments, in-country stakeholders, and the international community.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2022). Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030 (July 2020). Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/covid&topic=01-approach

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030 (July 2020). Institute for Security Studies, 2022. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/covid&topic=01-approach.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030 (July 2020) |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=7 November 2022 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/covid&topic=01-approach |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2022impact, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030 (July 2020)}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2022}, month = nov, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/covid&topic=01-approach}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }