Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030 (July 2020)

The document outlines a mixed-methods approach to forecasting the impact of COVID-19 in Africa to 2030. It utilizes the International Futures (IFs) forecasting platform to compare three scenarios against a pre-pandemic baseline, focusing on economic growth, per capita income, poverty, and Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). This quantitative analysis was supplemented by qualitative dialogues involving experts and practitioners focusing on 15 representative African countries. The methodology included validation through a project reference group, questionnaires, and presentations to the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) and public health experts to synthesize inter-disciplinary perspectives.

• The report employs the International Futures (IFs) forecasting platform to analyze three potential COVID-19 impact scenarios in Africa compared to a pre-pandemic baseline, focusing on economic growth, per capita income, poverty, and Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) targets up to 2030.
• A qualitative component of the research involved three dialogues with global and African experts, focusing on 15 countries selected for their developmental, regional, and cultural diversity: Algeria, Tunisia, Mali, Sierra Leone, Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad, Sudan, Ethiopia, Kenya, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DR Congo), Angola, Malawi, South Africa, and Mauritius.
• The methodology included a validation process involving approximately 100 dialogue participants, a project reference group of development agencies and experts, a questionnaire for detailed feedback, and presentations to public health experts and macro-economic experts at the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA).

APA

Cilliers, J. (2022). Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030 (July 2020). Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/covid&topic=01-approach

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030 (July 2020). Institute for Security Studies, 2022. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/covid&topic=01-approach.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030 (July 2020) |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=7 November 2022 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/covid&topic=01-approach |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2022impact, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030 (July 2020)}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2022}, month = nov, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/covid&topic=01-approach}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }