CLIMATE SECURITY IN MAINLAND SOUTHEAST ASIA: A SCENARIOS-BASED ASSESSMENT

The report examines how climate change acts as a risk multiplier in Mainland Southeast Asia, specifically Burma, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam. It identifies state governance capacity and social and economic inequality as the primary drivers of regional insecurity. Through four scenarios—ranging from 'Paralyzed States, Vulnerable Populations' to 'Building Resilience, Strengthening Communities'—the analysis explores how these drivers influence outcomes like food insecurity, forced migration, and the proliferation of criminal networks. The document recommends that external stakeholders support policies to reduce inequality, engage regional security services for cooperation, and utilize ASEAN as a platform for climate risk mitigation to navigate the geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China.

• Social and economic inequality within states can hinder climate resilience efforts, necessitating that external stakeholders integrate policies for economic security and inequality mitigation into their climate strategies.
• Climate risks in Mainland Southeast Asia are transnational, meaning regional resilience depends on diplomatic and security cooperation between local states and global partners.
• The report suggests using ASEAN and other regional forums to coordinate climate risk mitigation to bypass the difficulties caused by the antagonistic relationship between the United States and China.
• Regional security services should be engaged to leverage their expertise and political influence to drive domestic policy reforms that support climate resilience, using technical data sharing as an entry point.
• External stakeholders are encouraged to push governments to partner with domestic civil society and NGOs, as there is a growing trend of crackdowns on these organizations across the region.
• Physical climate projections for the region include temperature increases of 1°C to 3.5°C by 2100, rising sea levels threatening cities like Bangkok and Ho Chi Minh City with a 0.2-meter rise by 2025, and increased intensity of tropical cyclones and flash floods.
• Human development factors, such as the damming of the Mekong River in China and Laos and rapid urbanization, compound the negative impacts of climate change, threatening ecosystems and increasing vulnerability to water-borne diseases.

APA

Lichtefeld, J. (2022). CLIMATE SECURITY IN MAINLAND SOUTHEAST ASIA: A SCENARIOS-BASED ASSESSMENT. The Council on Strategic Risks. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Climate-Security-MainlandSEA-Nov22.pdf

Chicago

Lichtefeld, John. CLIMATE SECURITY IN MAINLAND SOUTHEAST ASIA: A SCENARIOS-BASED ASSESSMENT. The Council on Strategic Risks, 2022. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Climate-Security-MainlandSEA-Nov22.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Lichtefeld |first1=John |title=CLIMATE SECURITY IN MAINLAND SOUTHEAST ASIA: A SCENARIOS-BASED ASSESSMENT |publisher=The Council on Strategic Risks |date=November 2022 |url=https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Climate-Security-MainlandSEA-Nov22.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{lichtefeld2022climate, author = {Lichtefeld, John}, title = {{CLIMATE SECURITY IN MAINLAND SOUTHEAST ASIA: A SCENARIOS-BASED ASSESSMENT}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2022}, month = nov, url = {https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Climate-Security-MainlandSEA-Nov22.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }