Genesee - Finger Lakes Emissions Scenario Analysis

The report evaluates three emissions scenarios for the Genesee-Finger Lakes Region: an existing policy scenario, a low ambition scenario, and a high ambition scenario. It finds that while the high ambition scenario can meet the 2030 intermediate target of the CLCPA, none of the current scenarios are sufficient to meet the 85% reduction goal by 2050. Key challenges include high emissions from enteric fermentation in dairy cows and methane leakage from large landfills. The analysis emphasizes the need for a carbon-free grid, electrification of transport and heating, and enhanced agricultural manure management.

• Existing plans and policies (Scenario 1) are insufficient to meet the 2030 and 2050 targets of the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (CLCPA), potentially eliminating 212 MMtCO2e of emissions by 2050 compared to the baseline.
• The 'low ambition' scenario (Scenario 2) achieves a 63% reduction in emissions compared to 1990 levels by 2050, which still falls short of the CLCPA's 85% reduction goal.
• The 'high ambition' scenario (Scenario 3) results in a 67% reduction in emissions compared to 1990 levels by 2050, leaving a gap of approximately 18% to reach the CLCPA target.
• The high ambition scenario is the only one analyzed that achieves the intermediate 2030 emissions target.
• Agricultural emissions are projected to increase from 22% of the regional total in 2018 to 40% by 2050 under the existing policy scenario due to a lack of current agricultural policies.
• In the high ambition scenario, approximately 75% of remaining 2050 emissions stem from agricultural sources (primarily enteric fermentation in dairy cows) and solid waste (landfill methane leakage).
• Stakeholder survey results indicate that residents prioritize affordable housing, clean water, and criminal and racial justice, with strong support for solar (83%) and wind (78%) farms, but opposition to nuclear expansion by nearly half of participants.
• The report identifies 42 technical mitigation measures across energy, residential, transport, commercial, industrial, agricultural, waste, and land sectors, though only 23 could be quantified due to data gaps.

APA

Ghosh, E., Nazareth, A., & Aponte, O. (2023). Genesee - Finger Lakes Emissions Scenario Analysis. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/genesee-finger-lakes-emissions-scenario-analysis-sei2023.008.pdf

Chicago

Ghosh, Emily, Anisha Nazareth, and Omar Aponte. Genesee - Finger Lakes Emissions Scenario Analysis. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2023. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/genesee-finger-lakes-emissions-scenario-analysis-sei2023.008.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Ghosh |first1=Emily |last2=Nazareth |first2=Anisha |last3=Aponte |first3=Omar |title=Genesee - Finger Lakes Emissions Scenario Analysis |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=January 2023 |url=https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/genesee-finger-lakes-emissions-scenario-analysis-sei2023.008.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ghosh2023genesee, author = {Ghosh, Emily and Nazareth, Anisha and Aponte, Omar}, title = {{Genesee - Finger Lakes Emissions Scenario Analysis}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2023}, month = jan, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/genesee-finger-lakes-emissions-scenario-analysis-sei2023.008.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }