Genesee - Finger Lakes Emissions Scenario Analysis

The Stockholm Environment Institute's 2023 report analyzes emission reduction scenarios for the Genesee-Finger Lakes region. It finds that while a 'high ambition' scenario can meet New York State's 2030 climate targets, none of the analyzed scenarios achieve the 85% reduction required by 2050. Key challenges include significant emissions from dairy cow enteric fermentation and large-scale landfills, while key opportunities lie in grid decarbonization, vehicle electrification, and agricultural manure management.

• The Genesee-Finger Lakes region is estimated to have emitted 30 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MMtCO2e) in 1990. To meet the New York State Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (CLCPA) targets, annual gross emissions must be reduced to approximately 18 MMtCO2e by 2030 and 4.5 MMtCO2e by 2050.
• Under Scenario 1 (Existing Policy), current plans and policies could eliminate 212 MMtCO2e of emissions by 2050 compared to the baseline, representing a 34% reduction. However, these policies are insufficient to meet the CLCPA targets for 2030 and 2050. In this scenario, agricultural emissions are projected to increase from 22% of the total in 2018 to 40% by 2050 due to a lack of existing agricultural policies.
• Scenario 2 (Existing Policy plus Low Ambition) could achieve total annual emission reductions of 19.1 MMtCO2e by 2050, which is a 63% reduction compared to 1990 levels. This remains below the CLCPA goal of an 85% reduction. This scenario highlights that agricultural mitigation, particularly manure management, contributes about 14% of the emission reductions.
• Scenario 3 (Existing Policy plus High Ambition) results in total annual emission reductions of 20.2 MMtCO2e by 2050, a 67% reduction compared to 1990 levels. While this scenario is the only one capable of meeting the intermediate 2030 CLCPA target, it still falls 18% short of the 2050 target.
• By 2050, under the high ambition scenario, approximately 75% of remaining emissions are attributed to agricultural emissions and solid waste (landfills). Remaining agricultural emissions are primarily from the enteric fermentation of dairy cows, while landfill emissions persist due to the size of the region's landfills, which receive waste from New York, Canada, and New England.
• Transportation emissions will remain a significant portion of the total in 2050 because rail trains, private buses, and many trucks will still rely on fossil fuels. The report notes that the potential for alternative fuels, such as hydrogen-powered vehicles, was not quantified because they are not yet available at a commercial scale in the US.
• Stakeholder engagement through a survey of 450 respondents in April 2021 indicated that residents prioritize affordable housing, clean water, and criminal and racial justice. Regarding climate solutions, there was strong support for solar farms (83%) and wind farms (78%), while nearly half of the participants opposed the expansion of nuclear energy.
• To achieve the 2030 goals, the report identifies several top priority climate measures: transitioning to a clean electricity grid, replacing gasoline and diesel vehicles with electric vehicles, increasing biogas capture and manure storage, electrifying building space heating, and creating more walkable and bikeable neighborhoods.

APA

Ghosh, E., Nazareth, A., & Aponte, O. (2023). Genesee - Finger Lakes Emissions Scenario Analysis. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/genesee-finger-lakes-emissions-scenario-analysis-sei2023.008.pdf

Chicago

Ghosh, Emily, Anisha Nazareth, and Omar Aponte. Genesee - Finger Lakes Emissions Scenario Analysis. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2023. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/genesee-finger-lakes-emissions-scenario-analysis-sei2023.008.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Ghosh |first1=Emily |last2=Nazareth |first2=Anisha |last3=Aponte |first3=Omar |title=Genesee - Finger Lakes Emissions Scenario Analysis |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=January 2023 |url=https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/genesee-finger-lakes-emissions-scenario-analysis-sei2023.008.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ghosh2023genesee, author = {Ghosh, Emily and Nazareth, Anisha and Aponte, Omar}, title = {{Genesee - Finger Lakes Emissions Scenario Analysis}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2023}, month = jan, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/genesee-finger-lakes-emissions-scenario-analysis-sei2023.008.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }