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South Africa has the technical potential to produce 3.2 to 4.5 billion litres of SAF annually, depending on the use of green hydrogen. The most cost-efficient route is the first-generation (1G) alcohol-to-jet (AtJ) pathway using sugarcane A-molasses, while the largest volume potential comes from invasive alien plants (IAPs) and garden waste via gasification and Fischer-Tropsch (GFT) synthesis. A domestic SAF industry could create over 100,000 direct green jobs, improve the national balance of trade by up to R159.5 billion per year, and provide alternative livelihoods for coal truckers in mining regions.

The report forecasts that Africa's energy demand will rise significantly due to population growth and economic expansion, with the 'Combined scenario' projecting demand 26% above the 'Current Path' by 2050. While production is expected to increase—particularly through renewables—demand will still outpace supply, increasing reliance on energy imports. Despite a rapid transition away from fossil fuels, Africa's share of global CO2-equivalent emissions from fossil fuels is projected to rise to 10.4% by 2050 in the Combined scenario.

The document examines the transition of Chinese finance in Africa from peripheral concessional lending to a more central, diverse role involving commercial banking and strategic investments. It details the internal reforms of the Chinese banking system that enabled international expansion and uses case studies of South Africa, Nigeria, and Mozambique to illustrate different engagement strategies. The analysis highlights a shift toward joint ventures and partnerships with local banks to mitigate risk and gain market knowledge, while also noting the growing influence of the renminbi in trade settlements.

The report examines the socioeconomic impacts of industrial decline and evaluates the effectiveness of various transition responses. It argues that successful 'just' transitions require early strategic planning, multi-stakeholder governance, and a holistic approach to regional economic development that builds on existing local capabilities rather than seeking a single industrial replacement. Through case studies in the US, UK, Australia, and South Africa, the document highlights the risks of uneven benefit distribution, the importance of reskilling over simple monetary compensation, and the necessity of addressing environmental legacies to enable land reuse.

The report provides a gendered analysis of the South African large-scale mining (LSM) sector, identifying a slow increase in female representation from 10% in 2015 to over 17% by 2020. While women are increasingly outperforming men in STEM and tertiary education, they remain under-represented in core mining operations and decision-making roles. The analysis highlights significant barriers, including a gender pay gap estimated between 23% and 35%, lack of gender-specific PPE, and persistent issues with gender-based violence and harassment. It recommends the development of a national gender strategy for mining, improved sex-disaggregated data collection, and targeted STEM career development to ensure a just transition to a low-carbon economy.

The paper examines the shift toward 'country ownership' in environmental and social (E&S) safeguards, where MDBs increasingly allow borrowing nations to use their own national systems. Through case studies of South Africa's Medupi Power Station and Ethiopia's road sector, the authors analyze the tension between MDB technical standards and national development priorities. While South Africa is presented as a model of high legislative alignment, Ethiopia illustrates challenges including capacity gaps, limited civil society participation, and the influence of non-traditional funders like China. The paper argues for a move from prescriptive standards to results-based implementation, recommending country-specific 'E&S safeguards plans,' enhanced regional capacity building, and a greater role for national development finance institutions (DFIs).

The document examines the DRC's energy crisis, characterized by an 11% electricity access rate and a heavy reliance on traditional biomass. It analyzes the complexities of the Grand Inga hydropower project, including financial hurdles, governance failures within the state utility SNEL, and socio-environmental concerns. The author argues for a 'two-track strategy' that combines large-scale hydro with diversified, small-scale renewable energy sources (RES) such as solar, wind, and geothermal, supported by the 2014 electricity law to attract private investment. Regionally, the paper highlights the role of the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP) and the potential for the DRC to act as a strategic energy hub for Southern, Central, and Eastern Africa.

The report identifies a diverse but fragmented ecosystem of 174 initiatives aiming to integrate gender diversity and social inclusion into the sustainable energy transition. While significant activity exists—particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia—the sector is hindered by a lack of multi-year funding, limited technical capacity among women, and restrictive social norms. The document argues that empowering women is a catalyst for energy access, noting that women influence 80% of household energy purchasing decisions, and calls for a shift toward rights-based approaches and strategic cross-sector partnerships to achieve universal energy access by 2030.

Africa possesses the world's highest untapped hydropower potential, yet only 11% of this capacity is currently installed. While large-scale projects like the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and the Julius Nyerere Hydropower Plant are advancing, growth is hindered by the need for extensive transmission networks in unstable regions and institutional failures. By 2043, hydropower is forecast to contribute 5.3% of the continent's energy production.

The document outlines predictable trends and critical unknowns for the Southern African region, noting a decline in solar energy costs and increasing climate vulnerability, while questioning the pace of EV adoption, infrastructure availability, and the role of South Africa's auto-manufacturing protections.

The document examines the transition of the mining sector from diesel and grid power to renewable energy (RE), primarily solar PV and wind. It argues that while RE has high initial capital expenditure, it offers lower long-term operating costs and provides a hedge against volatile fuel prices. The paper highlights the role of hybrid systems and energy storage in overcoming the intermittency of RE to meet the constant baseload demands of mines. It also explores the potential for portable RE systems for exploration sites and the use of rehabilitated mine land for utility-scale RE generation.

The submission argues that the draft SAREM over-relies on private investment and fails to sufficiently address the impact of the global supply chain crisis on renewable energy costs. It advocates for a state-led industrial policy, including the use of import tariffs and the central role of Eskom in renewable generation, to avoid 'boom-bust' cycles and ensure a just transition for workers. Key recommendations include establishing a 'decent work' framework, implementing aggressive local content requirements (suggesting 50% for future RFPs), and creating a technology transfer system to support local manufacturing.

South Africa faces a conflict between its development goals—focused on poverty alleviation and economic growth—and its climate targets, as 90% of its electricity is generated from coal. While the country has proposed ambitious emission cuts of 25% by 2020 and 42% by 2025, it continues to expand coal capacity through projects like the Medupi and Kusile plants to address electricity supply constraints. The document argues that development and climate mitigation can converge through an innovative economic agenda that exploits green market opportunities to create a new labour-absorbing industry.

Mpumalanga is positioned as a strategic hub for South Africa's renewable energy transition due to its significant grid capacity and proximity to industrial demand. However, developers face substantial hurdles, including a lack of a public mining cadastre and delays in Section 53 land-use applications under the Mineral and Petroleum Resource Development Act. Environmental risks, specifically the lack of precise data on endangered bird flight paths, create uncertainty for wind projects. The document suggests short-term mitigations like the Energy One Stop Shop and Strategic Infrastructure Project registration, while advocating for long-term solutions such as a public mining rights database and comprehensive bird monitoring studies.

The Centre for Environmental Rights (CER) submits that South Africa must urgently transition from coal to renewable energy due to the declining competitiveness of coal, severe health and environmental impacts, and extreme vulnerability to climate change. The CER argues against new coal and nuclear infrastructure, recommends the decommissioning of non-compliant coal plants, and calls for a transformation of Eskom into an organ of state promoting clean energy. It further emphasizes the need for meaningful public consultation in energy planning and warns against the continued operation of high-emission facilities like Sasol's Secunda complex.

The review finds that energy transition modeling in Africa is a rapidly growing field, yet it is dominated by researchers based outside the continent and largely ignores the nexus between decarbonization and socio-economic development. Most models focus on global targets (2030/2050) and techno-economic optimization, while neglecting political constraints, comprehensive transition costs, and a diverse range of low-carbon technologies like nuclear and carbon capture.

The document examines how the green energy transition in Africa could trigger conflict due to land displacement, environmental damage, and inequitable benefit distribution. It identifies five key categories of legal protections—land and resource rights, environmental and social protections, compensation and benefit sharing, access to information and participation, and access to justice—that can mitigate these risks. While many Sub-Saharan African countries have enacted basic protections, the brief emphasizes that the quality of implementation, institutional capacity, and political will are essential to prevent a 'green resource curse'.

The document introduces a conceptual framework for evaluating gender equity and sustainable livelihoods in renewable energy value chains (REVCs). Using a social reproduction lens, it moves beyond simple employment metrics to examine the interplay between paid and unpaid labour, care responsibilities, and structural inequalities. The framework is structured around three dimensions: the global distribution of value, work and livelihoods, and ecological justice. It is intended as an assessment tool for policymakers and researchers to ensure that the transition to net zero emissions does not reproduce existing patterns of dependence or inequality, with illustrative applications mentioned for South Africa, Kenya, and Ghana.

The report examines how Chinese state-owned banks, having undergone domestic reform and international listing, are expanding into Africa. This expansion is driven by the need for resource security and the 'follow your client' model, where banks support Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and SMEs. Key mechanisms include project finance via China ExIm Bank and China Development Bank, the establishment of the China-Africa Development Fund, and strategic equity investments, such as ICBC's 20% stake in South Africa's Standard Bank.

The report outlines a total potential market size of R468 billion by 2030 for large-scale renewable energy in South Africa, split between private procurement (R214 billion), public procurement (R212 billion), and local component manufacturing (R42 billion). Private procurement is growing rapidly due to the removal of generation licensing requirements and the demand for energy security amidst loadshedding. Public procurement is driven by the REIPPPP and municipal tenders, though it faces policy uncertainty and municipal financial strain. Local manufacturing is supported by the South African Renewable Energy Masterplan (SAREM) and trade agreements, but is hindered by low cost imports and grid constraints. Key systemic barriers include severe grid capacity constraints in high-yield areas and a critical shortage of technical skills for installation and commissioning.