Large-scale Renewable Energy

The report outlines a total potential market size of R468 billion by 2030 for large-scale renewable energy in South Africa, split between private procurement (R214 billion), public procurement (R212 billion), and local component manufacturing (R42 billion). Private procurement is growing rapidly due to the removal of generation licensing requirements and the demand for energy security amidst loadshedding. Public procurement is driven by the REIPPPP and municipal tenders, though it faces policy uncertainty and municipal financial strain. Local manufacturing is supported by the South African Renewable Energy Masterplan (SAREM) and trade agreements, but is hindered by low cost imports and grid constraints. Key systemic barriers include severe grid capacity constraints in high-yield areas and a critical shortage of technical skills for installation and commissioning.

• The total estimated market size for large-scale renewable energy, energy storage, and component manufacturing in South Africa is R468 billion by 2030, averaging approximately R78 billion per year.
• Private procurement of renewable energy is projected to reach an investment value of R214 billion by 2030, with solar PV estimated at R116 billion and wind power at R98 billion.
• Severe grid capacity constraints exist in high-yield renewable energy regions, with zero available capacity for large-scale projects in the Northern Cape, Western Cape, Eastern Cape, and parts of the Free State.
• The removal of electricity generation licensing requirements in February 2023 has acted as a major driver for private sector growth, allowing projects to be registered without the previous 1 MW or 100 MW limits.
• South Africa's credit rating has deteriorated to 'Speculative Grade' (below investment grade) across all three major agencies (S&P, Moody's, and Fitch), increasing borrowing costs for infrastructure like grid expansion.
• Local manufacturers struggle to compete with low-cost imports; solar PV component imports surged from R17.114 billion in 2022 to R40.625 billion in 2023.
• A critical industry-wide skills shortage exists in electrical commissioning, installation of renewable systems in remote areas, and the maintenance of grid-scale battery storage.
• The Just Energy Transition Investment Plan (JET-IP) identified financial requirements of USD 98 billion over the next five years, covering electricity, new energy vehicles, and green hydrogen.

APA

Terblanche, U., Botha, C., Louw, C., & Radmore, J. (2024). Large-scale Renewable Energy. GreenCape. https://greencape.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Large-scale-RE-MIR-2024-digital.pdf

Chicago

Terblanche, Ulrich, Christoff Botha, Christina Louw, and Jack Radmore. Large-scale Renewable Energy. GreenCape, 2024. https://greencape.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Large-scale-RE-MIR-2024-digital.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Terblanche |first1=Ulrich |last2=Botha |first2=Christoff |last3=Louw |first3=Christina |last4=Radmore |first4=Jack |title=Large-scale Renewable Energy |publisher=GreenCape |date=2024 |url=https://greencape.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Large-scale-RE-MIR-2024-digital.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{terblanche2024largescale, author = {Terblanche, Ulrich and Botha, Christoff and Louw, Christina and Radmore, Jack}, title = {{Large-scale Renewable Energy}}, institution = {GreenCape}, year = {2024}, url = {https://greencape.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Large-scale-RE-MIR-2024-digital.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }