Climate Change and Economic Development in Africa

The review finds that energy transition modeling in Africa is a rapidly growing field, yet it is dominated by researchers based outside the continent and largely ignores the nexus between decarbonization and socio-economic development. Most models focus on global targets (2030/2050) and techno-economic optimization, while neglecting political constraints, comprehensive transition costs, and a diverse range of low-carbon technologies like nuclear and carbon capture.

• Energy transition modeling in Africa has grown rapidly since the 2015 Paris Agreement, with over 90% of the 156 reviewed papers published after the agreement and 60% published between 2019 and 2021.
• Research coverage is geographically uneven, with over one-third of studies focusing on Nigeria and South Africa, while nearly half of the African countries are not covered in the examined literature.
• Most models prioritize climate goals over development; 90% focus on the optimal energy mix and 60% on emissions pathways, while only 10% consider development as a central outcome of interest.
• Electricity consumption projections for sub-Saharan Africa are generally low-ambition, with the highest 2050 projection of 1,500 kWh per capita being less than half of the 2017 global average of 3,152 kWh.
• There is a significant gap in the consideration of comprehensive costs; only 4% of the reviewed papers discuss the total cost of the energy transition beyond the cost of the energy technology itself.
• While solar, wind, and hydro are predominant, other critical low-carbon technologies are under-studied; nuclear, geothermal, and biogas are considered in less than 30% of the papers, and hydrogen and carbon capture are considered in 4% and 8% respectively.
• Intellectual leadership is dominated by researchers based outside of Africa, who authored 63% of the papers. Furthermore, 75% of the papers cited in IPCC reports were authored by researchers based outside of Africa.
• Models are overwhelmingly techno-economic, with 95.51% focusing on such systems, while only 3.21% address socio-technical systems and none address political constraints.

APA

Blimpo, M. P., Dato, P., Mukhaya, B., & Odarno, L. (2023). Climate Change and Economic Development in Africa. Clean Air Task Force. https://cdn.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/06114939/climate-change-economic-development-africa.pdf

Chicago

Blimpo, Moussa P, Prudence Dato, Brian Mukhaya, and Lily Odarno. Climate Change and Economic Development in Africa. Clean Air Task Force, 2023. https://cdn.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/06114939/climate-change-economic-development-africa.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Blimpo |first1=Moussa P |last2=Dato |first2=Prudence |last3=Mukhaya |first3=Brian |last4=Odarno |first4=Lily |title=Climate Change and Economic Development in Africa |publisher=Clean Air Task Force |date=May 2023 |url=https://cdn.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/06114939/climate-change-economic-development-africa.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{blimpo2023climate, author = {Blimpo, Moussa P and Dato, Prudence and Mukhaya, Brian and Odarno, Lily}, title = {{Climate Change and Economic Development in Africa}}, institution = {Clean Air Task Force}, year = {2023}, month = may, url = {https://cdn.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/06114939/climate-change-economic-development-africa.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }