Search Climate Insights Directory

The author contends that Africa's high fertility rates, particularly in countries like Tanzania, hinder economic growth by maintaining a high ratio of dependents to working-age people. By comparing Africa to the 'Asian Tiger' economies and the US, the text illustrates how a higher ratio of working-age persons per dependent drives income growth. The document suggests that improving water, sanitation, education, and contraceptive access could lead to a significantly larger economy and the elimination of poverty by 2063.

The report argues that most low- and lower-middle-income African states are decades away from a demographic dividend due to high youth dependency ratios and slow demographic transitions. While the global working-age to dependent ratio peaked in 2012, Africa's is forecast to peak shortly after 2070. The author suggests that aggressive roll-out of modern contraception, eliminating gender inequality in education, and improving basic infrastructure could advance this dividend. A modelled 'Demographic Dividend' scenario suggests that by 2063, Africa could have 418 million fewer people but a GDP in purchasing power terms US$1.7 trillion larger than under the current trajectory, significantly reducing extreme poverty and narrowing the income gap with the rest of the world.

The report finds that while armed conflict fatalities in Africa are generally declining, the continent remains vulnerable due to structural drivers including poverty, youth bulges, and poor governance. It notes a shift from rural armed conflict toward urban political protests and riots. The analysis identifies a core group of countries at the highest risk of armed conflict and argues that inclusive economic development and improved governance are the only long-term solutions for stability.

The report evaluates Kenya's development prospects to 2040, highlighting a contrast between strong human capital (health and education) and a significant deficit in core infrastructure (water and sanitation). While Kenya is a regional leader in ICT and renewable energy, it faces challenges from a large youth bulge, corruption, and climate-driven food insecurity. The report presents three scenarios: 'Stuck in Traffic' (current path), 'Tuko Kazi' (positive interventions), and 'Bila Hopes' (stagnation and instability).

The document analyzes the ineffective responses to Burundi's political crisis, highlighting the lack of coordination between the UN, AU, and EAC. It identifies the Burundian government's intransigence and the institutional inexperience of regional bodies as primary obstacles. The author recommends a strategic overhaul that leverages comparative institutional strengths, improves evidence-based research, and ensures international access to the country to prevent mass atrocities.

The report examines the responses of Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad, and Niger to the Boko Haram insurgency. It highlights the role of the Multi-National Joint Task Force (MNJTF) in coordinating military action and the use of national strategies like Nigeria's Operation Lafiya Dole and Cameroon's RMIA4. The authors argue that while military cooperation has improved, non-military responses remain ad-hoc. Security restrictions, such as curfews and trade bans, have negatively impacted local livelihoods, potentially alienating civilians. The report also discusses the challenges of reintegrating ex-militants and the politicization of reconstruction efforts in Borno state ahead of the 2019 elections.

In August 2016, Boko Haram split into two factions: ISIS-WA, led by Abu Musab al-Barnawi and influenced by Mamman Nur, and JAS, led by Abubakar Shekau. The rupture was driven by Shekau's dictatorial leadership and a fundamental ideological dispute over the targeting of Muslim civilians. JAS continues to employ indiscriminate violence and suicide bombings against civilians, while ISIS-WA focuses on large-scale assaults against security forces and attempts to cultivate local support. Both groups rely on local extortion, cattle rustling, and kidnapping for finance, with limited evidence of practical external support despite ISIS-WA's formal alliance with the global Islamic State network. The report concludes that ISIS-WA represents a more significant long-term threat due to its superior military coordination and strategic efforts to win 'hearts and minds' among vulnerable populations.

The 31st AU summit introduced unprecedented budget scrutiny, reducing the 2019 budget by 12% to US$681 million through 'golden rules' of sustainability and predictability. While the AfCFTA saw five new signatories, ratification remains below the 22-country threshold required for implementation. Institutional reforms continue, including the proposed shift to merit-based appointments for the AU Commission and the integration of NEPAD and APRM into the AU core. Additionally, the report highlights an escalating armed conflict in Cameroon's anglophone regions and lists various Peace and Security Council (PSC) decisions from April to June 2018, including a new focus on the nexus between climate change and security.

The report argues that inclusivity is vital for sustaining peace and must be integrated into every stage of the peace continuum, from mediation to state-building. Using Liberia and South Sudan as case studies, it contrasts Liberia's relatively successful inclusive frameworks and unified regional support from ECOWAS with South Sudan's elite-driven processes and fragmented regional response from IGAD. The document highlights that technical exercises in security sector reform (SSR) and disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration (DDR) often fail if they do not address underlying political power structures and incentives for spoilers. It concludes with recommendations for the UN to prioritise joint analysis, community consultation, and support for institutionalised regional governance frameworks to ensure sustainable, inclusive peace.

The report evaluates Kenya's development landscape, noting strengths in health and education but significant deficits in basic infrastructure and governance. It uses the International Futures (IFs) model to project outcomes through 2040, arguing that while Kenya is unlikely to reach upper-middle-income status by 2030, targeted interventions in agriculture, family planning, and corruption could meaningfully improve livelihoods.

South Africa is attempting to leverage its unique geographic position to grow an 'oceans economy' through initiatives like Operation Phakisa, while simultaneously managing maritime security and international partnerships. However, the report finds that progress has been modest, hampered by eroding naval capabilities, a lack of an integrated national maritime strategy, and a policy focus that has disproportionately favored the Indian Ocean over the Atlantic. The document emphasizes the need for better coordination between government departments and stronger alignment with African Union and Indian Ocean Rim Association strategies to ensure sustainable 'blue economy' growth.

The policy brief identifies critical deficiencies in Guinea-Bissau's electoral framework, specifically the lack of coordination between the National Electoral Commission (NEC) and the government's Technical Support Office for the Electoral Process (GTAPE). It recommends granting the NEC financial independence through direct budget allocations and full responsibility for the electoral census. The brief also highlights the need to revise parliamentary seat distribution to reflect current demographic data and to legalise national election observation. Furthermore, it addresses the long-term failure to hold local elections since 1994, suggesting a consultative process to define a decentralisation model suited to the national context.

The document argues that Guinea-Bissau's electoral framework requires significant reform to resolve inconsistencies between the Constitution and electoral law, strengthen the independence of the National Election Commission (CNE), and ensure fair representation in the National People's Assembly. It highlights the problematic division of duties between the CNE and the government's technical support office (GTAPE) and the lack of demographic updates in electoral circle distributions. The brief also addresses the long-standing failure to hold municipal elections and suggests legalizing national election observation and improving the transparency of vote counting.

The document analyzes the 1991 Framework Law on Political Parties in Guinea-Bissau, noting that while the law contains desirable democratic principles, it has been poorly applied, leading to the personalization of power and institutional weakness. It recommends establishing a Constitutional Court to oversee party registration and dissolution, implementing a 30% gender quota for candidate lists, and creating an independent National Commission for Political Financing to manage public subsidies and campaign spending limits to reduce corruption.

null

The document argues that Guinea-Bissau requires comprehensive institutional reforms to prevent political blockages and ensure stability. Key recommendations include revising the Constitution to clarify the powers of the President and Prime Minister, strengthening the National Electoral Commission, updating the 1991 Framework Law on Political Parties to increase transparency and gender representation, restarting the Justice Reform Programme (2015–2019), and relaunching dialogue on defence and security sector reform (DSSR).

The report argues that Africa is currently deindustrialising, with structural transformation shifting from low-productivity agriculture to low-productivity urban retail services. It posits that manufacturing is unique in its ability to induce rapid economic growth and productivity gains. The author suggests that the fourth industrial revolution—characterised by robotics, AI, and 3D printing—could allow Africa to leapfrog traditional infrastructure deficits and establish regional value chains, provided governments implement determined industrial policies and invest in human capital and ICT.

South Africa is overexploiting its renewable water resources, with more than 60% of its rivers currently overexploited. Forecasts indicate that demand will increase across agricultural, industrial, and municipal sectors through 2035, driven by population growth, urbanisation, and industrial expansion. The report highlights critical vulnerabilities, including deteriorating wastewater treatment facilities—where nearly 25% are in a 'critical state'—and high levels of non-revenue water (approximately 36% of municipal consumption). To avoid a national crisis, the authors recommend implementing tiered water pricing, expanding the use of treated wastewater, and increasing sustainable groundwater extraction. The report also notes that transitioning from coal-based energy to renewables would reduce industrial water demand. While large-scale infrastructure projects are planned, the report argues they are insufficient without aggressive demand reduction and efficiency measures.

The report examines the 2018 African Union Peace and Security Council elections, noting a shift toward regional consensus and a decline in the average governance and democracy scores of member states. It details institutional reform struggles led by President Paul Kagame, specifically the contested transformation of Nepad into a development agency. Additionally, it analyzes the need for sanctions in South Sudan, the political deadlock in Togo, and the challenges of state absence in the Central African Republic.

The report finds that the threat of violent extremism among South Sudanese and Somalian refugees in Ethiopia is low, as refugees often possess a genuine disdain for the extremists who caused their displacement. While Ethiopia has effectively managed camp security through a collaborative approach involving refugees, the document warns that chronic underfunding and a lack of livelihood opportunities for youth create fertile ground for future radicalisation. It argues against the narrative that refugees are inherent security risks, suggesting instead that robust asylum processes and integration policies, such as Ethiopia's Nine Pledges, are the most effective ways to ensure security.