Search Climate Insights Directory

This briefing note outlines the current state and future prospects of nuclear energy in Africa, detailing existing infrastructure in South Africa, ongoing construction in Egypt, and the exploratory interests of other nations.

This briefing note examines the current state and projected future of hydropower in Africa up to 2043. It highlights the gap between the continent's vast untapped potential and its current installed capacity, while detailing specific large-scale projects in Ethiopia, Tanzania, and the DR Congo.

This background note from the Institute for Security Studies projects that Africa, following its current development trajectory, will eventually become the primary global source of carbon emissions from fossil fuels, surpassing the emissions of the EU, USA, India, and China by 2061.

This background note provides historical data and forecasts for global and African energy demand and production up to 2043, highlighting the role of population growth in driving energy needs and the slow transition away from fossil fuels.

This briefing note provides data on proven oil reserves in Africa, citing BP as the source. It identifies the total reserves for the continent and specifies the five countries holding the vast majority of these reserves.

This monograph examines how competing interpretations of history and the material representation of memory—through monuments, statues, and the naming of public spaces—drive political polarisation and conflict in Ethiopia. The author identifies three primary ideological approaches to collective memory: rejectionist/reconstructivist, revivalist/restorationist, and moderationist. These approaches interact with four layers of 'invented traditions' (the pre-1991 'great tradition', post-1991 federal vernacular traditions, regional traditions, and local-level traditions), creating a 'battleground of memory wars' that reinforces vertical and horizontal tensions between the state and various political movements.

This policy brief by the Institute for Security Studies examines the challenges of formalising the artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM) sector in West Africa and the Sahel. It argues that punitive crackdowns often increase fragility and criminal capture, recommending instead a supportive formalisation approach that addresses land rights, gender inequality, and the creation of decentralised service centres to reduce vulnerability to organised crime and violent extremist groups.

This policy brief examines the challenges of formalizing artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM) in West Africa and the Sahel. It argues that repressive measures often increase vulnerability to criminal capture and instead advocates for a holistic, support-based approach to formalization that addresses land rights, gender marginalization, and regional coordination to mitigate the influence of organized crime and violent extremist groups.

This policy brief by the Institute for Security Studies argues that Africa's Agenda 2063 framework must be updated to integrate climate risk management and low-carbon pathways. It highlights the economic threats posed by climate change and the risk of stranded fossil fuel assets, while providing specific recommendations for African governments, Regional Economic Communities, and the African Union to enhance resilience and human security.

The November 2023 Peace & Security Council Report examines the diplomatic implications of the first Saudi-Africa summit, the coordination between the AU Peace and Security Council (PSC) and the UN Security Council's A3 members, the precarious state of South Sudan's transition toward elections, and the AU's efforts to integrate youth into peacebuilding and economic integration via AfCFTA.

This report examines the illicit trafficking of small arms and light weapons (SALW) in the Sahel, focusing on Burkina Faso, Niger, and Nigeria. It identifies six critical 'nodes' in tri-border areas that facilitate the flow of weapons. Key drivers of demand include security crises, personal safety, and climate-induced resource conflicts. The report highlights that a significant portion of illicit arms are produced locally or leak from state arsenals, and that profits from this trade are often laundered through real estate. Despite existing regional frameworks like the ECOWAS Convention, the report concludes that national implementation remains the primary obstacle to controlling proliferation.

This special edition of the Peace & Security Council Report by the Institute for Security Studies examines the resurgence of military coups and unconstitutional changes of government (UCGs) in Africa, specifically focusing on a 'third wave' since 2019. The report analyzes the drivers of these coups, the role of 'constitutional coups' (manipulating term limits), the impact of civil-military relations, and the effectiveness of African Union (AU) and regional sanctions.

This policy brief examines the prevalence and risk factors of online child sexual exploitation and abuse (OCSEA) in Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire, and Cape Verde. It identifies significant gaps in victim identification, legal frameworks, and prosecution, while noting an increase in child sexual exploitation and abuse materials (CSEAM) uploads since 2019.

This policy brief examines the prevalence and risk factors of online child sexual exploitation and abuse (OCSEA) in Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire, and Cabo Verde. It highlights a significant gap between official data and actual prevalence, noting that OCSEA is likely drastically underreported due to social stigma and weak identification processes. The document identifies systemic failures in legal frameworks, law enforcement capacity, and victim support, while recommending regional harmonization of laws and increased collaboration between governments and the technology sector.

This report by the Institute for Security Studies examines the intersection of violent extremism and illicit economies in northern Côte d’Ivoire between 2019 and 2023. It specifically analyzes how extremist groups, including those linked to GSIM and IS Sahel, have infiltrated the livestock economy and illegal artisanal gold mining to secure funding, logistics, and human resources. The document details a three-phase security sequence in the north-east, moving from exploratory incursions to active attacks and a subsequent lull, while providing policy recommendations for regulating the mining and livestock sectors to deprive these groups of resources.

This research paper examines illicit financial flows (IFFs) stemming from migrant smuggling in Senegal and Sierra Leone. It analyzes how smuggling proceeds are generated, moved through formal and informal channels, and laundered into legitimate sectors. The report highlights a significant gap between the existence of anti-money laundering policies and their practical implementation, noting that financial intelligence units in both countries lack the resources and expertise to effectively 'follow the money' in smuggling cases.

This policy brief examines the intersection of rapid urbanization and transnational organized crime in Bamako and Lagos, focusing on how illicit arms trafficking fuels urban violence. It identifies the actors, routes, and drivers of arms proliferation and recommends integrated governance and security interventions to mitigate these threats.

This policy brief examines illicit financial flows (IFFs) resulting from migrant smuggling in Senegal and Sierra Leone. It identifies a significant gap between the existence of anti-money laundering laws and the actual investigation of smuggling proceeds, which are primarily moved through cash and informal channels. The document highlights institutional weaknesses, including underfunded financial intelligence units and corruption, and provides recommendations to prioritize 'follow the money' approaches to disrupt smuggling networks.

The July 2023 Peace & Security Council Report by the Institute for Security Studies examines the outcomes of the fifth mid-year coordination meeting between the African Union (AU) and regional economic communities (RECs). It highlights systemic coordination failures in peace-making, the challenges of AU institutional reforms, and the potential of new initiatives like the Africa Facility to Support Inclusive Transitions (AFSIT) to deter unconstitutional changes of government. The report also discusses the security vacuum created by the withdrawal of the UN mission (MINUSMA) from Mali.

This special report by the Institute for Security Studies examines the intersection of agriculture, water access, and climate change in Algeria, forecasting development pathways to 2040. It highlights the country's vulnerability to commodity shocks, low agricultural productivity, and the severe socio-economic risks posed by rising temperatures and sea-level rise.