Prospects for Dialogue and Negotiation to Address the Conflict in the Lake Chad Basin

This report by the Institute for Security Studies and UNIDIR examines the feasibility of using dialogue and negotiation to resolve the Boko Haram insurgency in the Lake Chad Basin. Based on qualitative research conducted in 2023 across Nigeria, Niger, Chad, and Cameroon, the study analyzes the differing motivations and capacities of the Jamā'at Ahl as-Sunnah lid-Da'wah wa'l-Jihād (JAS) and Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) factions. It argues that while military efforts alone are insufficient, strategic negotiations—potentially targeting mid-level commanders rather than just top leadership—could complement kinetic operations to end the conflict.

• Dialogue is viewed as a critical precursor to formal negotiations, serving to rebuild trust between governments and Boko Haram and promoting community-level reconciliation and acceptance of former associates.
• A significant barrier to future negotiations is the history of unfulfilled government promises and unmet expectations regarding socio-economic support for those who have already exited the group.
• The two main Boko Haram factions differ significantly in their viability as negotiation partners: ISWAP possesses the leadership coherence and control to be a credible partner but is less likely to negotiate due to its transnational ISIL ties and hardline ideology, whereas JAS is more motivated to negotiate due to its weakened state but lacks the centralized control to guarantee terms.
• There is a perceived disconnect between Boko Haram's leadership and its rank-and-file; lower-ranking members are more open to negotiations, particularly if their primary motivations for joining—such as lack of economic opportunity—are addressed.
• A multi-faceted negotiation strategy targeting influential individual or regional commanders, especially within the decentralized JAS faction, could incrementally reduce the group's capacity even if top leadership remains opposed.
• Amnesty is considered central to any peace agreement to encourage defections, but the report suggests a tiered approach where legal leniency is provided to low-ranking members while leaders and those accused of atrocities face criminal justice or alternative community-based justice processes.
• Past dialogue efforts in Nigeria and Niger, specifically one-sided strategic communication campaigns via radio promising safety and support, have successfully prompted mass exits from the group.
• The implementation of Sharia law is identified as a primary 'red line' for both factions, though the report notes that because elements of Sharia are already in place in some affected areas, this impasse may not be insurmountable.
• Community Security Actors (CSAs) are generally supportive of negotiations and are viewed as valuable intermediaries due to their local intelligence and terrain knowledge, though they may become spoilers if they lack professional reintegration plans after the conflict.

APA

Batault, F., Samuel, M., Delanga, C., Bukar, M., Badu, F. Y. A., Muhammad, F. A., Ajimi, F., Boubacar, S., & O’Neil, S. (2024). Prospects for Dialogue and Negotiation to Address the Conflict in the Lake Chad Basin. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pages/1715842338345-2024-05-16-UNIDIR-ISS.pdf

Chicago

Batault, Francesca, Malik Samuel, Celestin Delanga, Mohammed Bukar, Fatima Yetcha Ajimi Badu, Fanna Abdu Muhammad, Fatima Ajimi, Sani Boubacar, and Siobhan O’Neil. Prospects for Dialogue and Negotiation to Address the Conflict in the Lake Chad Basin. Institute for Security Studies, 2024. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pages/1715842338345-2024-05-16-UNIDIR-ISS.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{batault2024prospects, author = {Batault, Francesca and Samuel, Malik and Delanga, Celestin and Bukar, Mohammed and Badu, Fatima Yetcha Ajimi and Muhammad, Fanna Abdu and Ajimi, Fatima and Boubacar, Sani and O’Neil, Siobhan}, title = {{Prospects for Dialogue and Negotiation to Address the Conflict in the Lake Chad Basin}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2024}, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pages/1715842338345-2024-05-16-UNIDIR-ISS.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }