Prospects for Dialogue and Negotiation to Address the Conflict in the Lake Chad Basin

The report assesses the potential for dialogue and negotiation to resolve the Boko Haram conflict in the Lake Chad Basin. It finds that while the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) is a more coherent and credible partner, its transnational ties to ISIL make it less likely to negotiate. Conversely, Jamā'at Ahl as-Sunnah lid-Da'wah wa'l-Jihād (JAS) is perceived as more motivated to negotiate due to military weakness and internal fragmentation, though it lacks centralized control. The study emphasizes a disconnect between hardline leadership and lower-ranking members, who are more open to exiting the group if economic needs and safety are guaranteed. It recommends a multi-faceted approach targeting individual commanders and the use of trusted intermediaries, such as traditional leaders and former associates, to build trust and facilitate demobilization.

• Dialogue is identified as a critical precursor to formal negotiations, serving to rebuild trust between governments and Boko Haram and promoting community-level reconciliation and acceptance of former associates.
• A significant barrier to future negotiations is the history of unfulfilled government promises and a lack of trust, which has negatively impacted the decisions of current members to exit the group.
• ISWAP is viewed as a more credible negotiating partner due to its strong leadership and coherence, but it is less likely to negotiate because of its maximalist goals, hardline ideology, and its role as an affiliate of the transnational Islamic State (ISIL).
• JAS is perceived as more motivated to negotiate due to its weakened military position and internal discord, but its lack of centralized control makes it a less credible partner capable of ensuring its members abide by agreed terms.
• There is a distinct gap between the views of Boko Haram leadership and lower-ranking members; the latter are more open to negotiations, particularly if livelihood concerns and economic opportunities are addressed.
• A multi-faceted negotiation strategy targeting individual regional commanders or units, rather than only top leadership, could effectively reduce the capacity of JAS by providing safe exit pathways for aggrieved commanders.
• Amnesty is considered central to any peace agreement to encourage defections, but the report suggests a tiered approach where lower-ranking members receive leniency while leaders and those accused of atrocities face criminal justice procedures.
• Past tactical negotiations have focused almost exclusively on the release of hostages, such as the Chibok girls, and have generally failed to transition into broader strategic settlements due to government reluctance or a lack of trust.
• Traditional and religious leaders, as well as recently surrendered commanders, are viewed as the most trusted intermediaries to facilitate indirect negotiations between the state and Boko Haram factions.
• Community Security Actors (CSAs) generally support dialogue and negotiation efforts and are seen as valuable participants due to their local intelligence, though they may become spoilers if they lack professional reintegration plans after the conflict ends.

APA

Batault, F., Samuel, M., Delanga, C., Bukar, M., Badu, F. Y. A., Muhammad, F. A., Ajimi, F., Boubacar, S., & O’Neil, S. (2024). Prospects for Dialogue and Negotiation to Address the Conflict in the Lake Chad Basin. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pages/1715842338345-2024-05-16-UNIDIR-ISS.pdf

Chicago

Batault, Francesca, Malik Samuel, Celestin Delanga, Mohammed Bukar, Fatima Yetcha Ajimi Badu, Fanna Abdu Muhammad, Fatima Ajimi, Sani Boubacar, and Siobhan O’Neil. Prospects for Dialogue and Negotiation to Address the Conflict in the Lake Chad Basin. Institute for Security Studies, 2024. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pages/1715842338345-2024-05-16-UNIDIR-ISS.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{batault2024prospects, author = {Batault, Francesca and Samuel, Malik and Delanga, Celestin and Bukar, Mohammed and Badu, Fatima Yetcha Ajimi and Muhammad, Fanna Abdu and Ajimi, Fatima and Boubacar, Sani and O’Neil, Siobhan}, title = {{Prospects for Dialogue and Negotiation to Address the Conflict in the Lake Chad Basin}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2024}, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pages/1715842338345-2024-05-16-UNIDIR-ISS.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }