O REVELAR DO POTENCIAL: IMPULSIONANDO O CRESCIMENTO E O DESENVOLVIMENTO INCLUSIVOS EM MOÇAMBIQUE

The report analyzes Mozambique's development prospects through 2043 using the International Futures (IFs) modeling platform. It finds that under the current trajectory, Mozambique is unlikely to meet most of its national development goals due to governance failures, infrastructure gaps, and low agricultural productivity. While liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects are expected to boost GDP, they are not projected to significantly reduce extreme poverty without broader structural reforms. The report evaluates eight sectoral scenarios, concluding that infrastructure investment has the highest impact on GDP growth, while a combined approach across all sectors—including agriculture, governance, and trade—offers the most substantial improvements in poverty reduction and per capita income.

• Under the current trajectory, Mozambique is projected to fail in achieving most of its development goals by 2043, primarily due to "questões de governação, estrangulamentos nas infra-estruturas, baixa produtividade agrícola e diversificação económica limitada."
• The 'Combined Scenario', which integrates interventions across all eight analyzed sectors, would result in a GDP US$ 47 billion higher by 2043 than the current trajectory, with a poverty rate at US$ 2.15 falling to 22.4% compared to 44.9% in the status quo.
• Infrastructure development is identified as the most significant driver for GDP growth by 2043, followed by agriculture, governance, and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA/ZCLCA).
• Despite the potential of LNG projects, the report notes that the current trajectory will likely leave nearly the same number of people in extreme poverty in 2043 as there are today, as gas production may not generate sufficient permanent employment.
• Mozambique's economy is characterized by high informality, with the informal sector representing 96% of the workforce in 2021 and approximately 36.5% of the GDP in 2023.
• Agricultural productivity remains critically low; in 2023, Mozambique ranked 36th out of 54 African countries in average crop yield per hectare, and a growing gap is projected between domestic food production and demand by 2043.
• The report highlights severe deficiencies in energy access, noting that only 3.8% of the rural population had access to electricity in 2021, compared to 93.4% in South Africa.
• Governance and corruption are cited as major barriers; the report notes that the quality of democracy and the rule of law have deteriorated, with corruption described by civil society as "o maior obstáculo ao futuro do país".
• Education suffers from a significant bottleneck between primary and secondary levels; only 25.1% of students who enter lower secondary school complete it.

APA

Yeboua, K., & Chipanda, B. (2024). O REVELAR DO POTENCIAL: IMPULSIONANDO O CRESCIMENTO E O DESENVOLVIMENTO INCLUSIVOS EM MOÇAMBIQUE. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/export/sites/afi/reports/pdfs/ISS-African-Futures-Mozambique-Portuguese.pdf

Chicago

Yeboua, Kouassi, and Blessing Chipanda. O REVELAR DO POTENCIAL: IMPULSIONANDO O CRESCIMENTO E O DESENVOLVIMENTO INCLUSIVOS EM MOÇAMBIQUE. Institute for Security Studies, 2024. https://futures.issafrica.org/export/sites/afi/reports/pdfs/ISS-African-Futures-Mozambique-Portuguese.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Yeboua |first1=Kouassi |last2=Chipanda |first2=Blessing |title=O REVELAR DO POTENCIAL: IMPULSIONANDO O CRESCIMENTO E O DESENVOLVIMENTO INCLUSIVOS EM MOÇAMBIQUE |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=2024 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/export/sites/afi/reports/pdfs/ISS-African-Futures-Mozambique-Portuguese.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{yeboua2024revelar, author = {Yeboua, Kouassi and Chipanda, Blessing}, title = {{O REVELAR DO POTENCIAL: IMPULSIONANDO O CRESCIMENTO E O DESENVOLVIMENTO INCLUSIVOS EM MOÇAMBIQUE}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2024}, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/export/sites/afi/reports/pdfs/ISS-African-Futures-Mozambique-Portuguese.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }